Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 25, 2026

FINAL+6TOR

TOR

48-57

BOS

53-50

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

36,902 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

BOS no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.4%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
72.6%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
71.9%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
73.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.28

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-120

Close price

-109

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

49.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+60.2pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

BOS

★ best

+730DraftKings

edge +60.2pp · implied 11.3%

Book	TOR	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	-1700	+730★	+60.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
George SpringerTOR
1.1± 0.6high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.9± 2.5high
George SpringerTOR
1.9± 1.6high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
George SpringerTOR
0.7± 1.3high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonTOR
3.5± 2.7medium
Max ScherzerTOR
3.4± 3.9low
Shane BieberTOR
2.6± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

BOS

.682

OPS

.720

▶

.712

.304

OBP

.318

▶

.316

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.27

4.04

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.53

1.31

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.23

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 6 · BOS 0 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +23pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	6
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Toronto Blue JaysBoston Red Sox

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LukesRF	.290	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.267	4	1	3	2	0	1	0
K. Okamoto3B	.226	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
G. SpringerDH	.229	5	1	2	3	1	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.247	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.298	4	0	3	1	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.263	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GimenezSS	.227	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
B. ValenzuelaC	.227	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. StrawRF	.213	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		39	6	15	6	1	1	9

Player

.290

.267

.226

.229

.247

.298

.263

.227

.227

.213

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CeaseSP	9.0	1	0	0	3	12	120
Team	9.0	1	0	0	3	12	120

Player

D. CeaseSP

9.0

120

Team

9.0

120

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Seigler2B	.265	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. RafaelaCF	.279	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. Contreras1B	.291	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. YoshidaDH	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.233	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. DuranLF	.192	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. MonasterioSS	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. WongC	.266	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		27	0	1	0	0	3	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. GraySP	5.0	10	5	5	0	3	75
A. GamboaRP	4.0	5	1	1	1	6	63
Team	9.0	15	6	6	1	9	138

Team

TOR

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BOS vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.