Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 1, 2026

FINAL+1TB

CHW

58-52

65-45

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

23,309 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TB no-vig %

60.0%

open 61.7% · -1.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.9%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
60.7%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.9%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.7%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

CHW

no live price

Book	CHW	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	+143	-188	+0.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 124 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high
Griffin JaxTB
5.2± 2.3high

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.2± 1.1high
Nick FortesTB
1.2± 1.3high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.4± 2.6high
Junior CamineroTB
2.2± 2.7high
Nick FortesTB
1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Junior CamineroTB
0.7± 0.9high
Nick FortesTB
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Freddy PeraltaTB
3.2± 3.3high
Davis MartinCHW
2.8± 2.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

.723

OPS

.720

▶

.732

.316

OBP

.318

▶

.329

4.74

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.44

4.04

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.75

1.29

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

CHW 0 · TB 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TB	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.279	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. Murakami1B	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
M. Vargas3B	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. MontgomerySS	.215	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. BenintendiDH	.246	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. MontgomeryRF	.239	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. PetersCF	.266	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Meidroth2B	.270	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. QueroC	.194	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukDH	.276	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. PereiraRF	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	0	5	0	0	1	16

Player

.279

.244

.238

.215

.246

.239

.266

.270

.194

.276

.211

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HicksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
N. SchultzSP	5.0	3	1	1	0	4	67
S. DominguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
T. RichardsRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	17
Team	8.0	5	1	1	0	8	106

Player

1.0

5.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

106

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.304	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. SimpsonLF	.290	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.280	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DeLucaRF	.263	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.252	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Williamson2B	.248	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.277	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. WallsSS	.212	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.203	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	1	5	1	0	0	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RasmussenSP	6.0	4	0	0	1	10	96
C. BooserRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	16
K. KellyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
G. CleavingerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
B. BakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	6
Team	9.0	5	0	0	1	16	136

Team

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

TB vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.