HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
MLBMid 1
TEX 0@HOU 0
-2.8ppmedium
MLBTop 1
KC 0@COL 0
-2.0ppmedium
MLBTop 8
PIT 4@CIN 5
+43.8ppmedium
MLBTop 6
PHI 3@BAL 2
-35.1ppmedium
MLBBot 5
STL 1@TOR 0
-30.5ppmedium
MLBBot 5
ARI 0@CLE 1
+27.4ppmedium
MLBBot 5
WSH 1@ATL 2
+29.3ppmedium
MLBBot 5
CHW 4@TB 1
-62.0pplow
MLBBot 5
MIA 4@NYM 0
-48.5pplow
WNBAHalftime
DAL 35@WSH 38
WNBA1:56 - 2nd
SEA 30@ATL 43
+7.8pplow
TONIGHTGraded picks 0-1 so far (MLB 0-1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Burke (CHW): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over NYY — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST in a win over NY
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. Cameron (KC): 8.0 IP · 7 K against MIN
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBTigers: Recalled LHP Enmanuel De Jesus from Toledo (IL) (Jul 31)
MLBMid 1
TEX 0@HOU 0
-2.8ppmedium
MLBTop 1
KC 0@COL 0
-2.0ppmedium
MLBTop 8
PIT 4@CIN 5
+43.8ppmedium
MLBTop 6
PHI 3@BAL 2
-35.1ppmedium
MLBBot 5
STL 1@TOR 0
-30.5ppmedium
MLBBot 5
ARI 0@CLE 1
+27.4ppmedium
MLBBot 5
WSH 1@ATL 2
+29.3ppmedium
MLBBot 5
CHW 4@TB 1
-62.0pplow
MLBBot 5
MIA 4@NYM 0
-48.5pplow
WNBAHalftime
DAL 35@WSH 38
WNBA1:56 - 2nd
SEA 30@ATL 43
+7.8pplow
TONIGHTGraded picks 0-1 so far (MLB 0-1)
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Burke (CHW): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over NYY — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST in a win over NY
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. Cameron (KC): 8.0 IP · 7 K against MIN
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBTigers: Recalled LHP Enmanuel De Jesus from Toledo (IL) (Jul 31)
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Washington Nationals
WSH#9 · National League

Washington Nationals

55-55 (50.0%) · L2 · L10 5-5

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#11 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .521 · exp 57.3-52.7 vs act 55-55 · n=110 · luck -2.3W · thru 2026-07-31 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-07-26 → 2026-07-30 · Full ATS profile →

WWon by 3 vs ARI, 10-7, 2026-07-26. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 1 vs TOR, 2-3, 2026-07-27. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 2 vs TOR, 8-6, 2026-07-28. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 3 vs TOR, 2-5, 2026-07-29. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 1 at ATL, 4-5, 2026-07-30. Covered the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1James Wood111 G.943
  2. 2CJ Abrams107 G.929
  3. 3Luis García Jr.103 G.875
  4. 4Daylen Lile109 G.713
  5. 5Nasim Nuñez102 G.609

Home runs

  1. 1James Wood111 G30
  2. 2CJ Abrams107 G28
  3. 3Luis García Jr.103 G23
  4. 4Daylen Lile109 G13
  5. 5Nasim Nuñez102 G1

RBI

  1. 1CJ Abrams107 G83
  2. 2Luis García Jr.103 G76
  3. 3James Wood111 G72
  4. 4Daylen Lile109 G54
  5. 5Nasim Nuñez102 G31

Batting average

  1. 1CJ Abrams107 G.291
  2. 2Luis García Jr.103 G.283
  3. 3James Wood111 G.268
  4. 4Daylen Lile109 G.246
  5. 5Nasim Nuñez102 G.242

Stolen bases

  1. 1Nasim Nuñez102 G39
  2. 2CJ Abrams107 G19
  3. 3James Wood111 G17
  4. 4Daylen Lile109 G10
  5. 5Luis García Jr.103 G4

ERA

  1. 1Foster Griffin128.0 IP2.81
  2. 2Cade Cavalli116.7 IP3.55

WHIP

  1. 1Foster Griffin128.0 IP1.05
  2. 2Cade Cavalli116.7 IP1.29

Strikeouts

  1. 1Cade Cavalli116.7 IP130
  2. 2Foster Griffin128.0 IP114

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.253vs .244Slight edge

OBP

.329vs .318Slight edge

SLG

.446vs .401Above avg

OPS

.775vs .720Above avg

HR

163

R / G

5.4

K / G

8.2

Pitching

ERA

4.76vs 4.18Below avg

FIP (approx)

4.75vs 4.19Below avg

WHIP

1.40vs 1.30Below avg

K / 9

7.7vs 8.5Below avg

BB / 9

3.5vs 3.4Slight gap

BAA

.259

HR / 9

1.4

GP

111

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.40.81.11.51st · 0.75 for / 0.50 against · margin +0.251st2nd · 0.25 for / 0.58 against · margin -0.332nd3rd · 0.75 for / 0.92 against · margin -0.173rd4th · 0.83 for / 0.33 against · margin +0.50PEAK4th5th · 0.92 for / 0.42 against · margin +0.505th6th · 0.08 for / 0.50 against · margin -0.426th7th · 1.08 for / 0.75 against · margin +0.337th8th · 0.25 for / 0.75 against · margin -0.508th9th · 0.17 for / 0.25 against · margin -0.089thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

5.1 avg / 5.0 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

5.70

Blowout wins (4+)

7

Shutout games

0

Form last 30

14-16

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 5.7 runs

1234AVG 5.703142433445627489210111213RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-06-24 → 2026-07-30

Record

14-16

Win pct

46.7%

Avg margin

+0.6

Longest W

3

Longest L

3

Upset wins

3

Favorite losses

8

2026-06-24 · vs PHI · L 4-5 · model gave 45%PHI2026-06-25 · vs PHI · L 5-10 · model gave 47%PHI2026-06-26 · @ BAL · L 1-3 · model gave 58%BAL2026-06-27 · @ BAL · W 4-3 · model gave 60%BAL2026-06-28 · @ BAL · W 6-4 · model gave 60%BAL2026-06-29 · @ BOS · L 3-6 · model gave 50%BOS2026-06-30 · @ BOS · W 8-1 · model gave 50%BOS2026-07-01 · @ BOS · W 10-2 · model gave 48%BOS2026-07-03 · vs PIT · W 9-5 · model gave 56%PIT2026-07-04 · vs PIT · L 1-7 · model gave 56%PIT2026-07-05 · vs PIT · L 5-11 · model gave 55%PIT2026-07-06 · vs HOU · W 12-11 · model gave 50%HOU2026-07-07 · vs HOU · L 3-6 · model gave 49%HOU2026-07-08 · vs HOU · W 8-2 · model gave 49%HOU2026-07-10 · vs NYY · L 3-5 · model gave 50%NYY2026-07-11 · vs NYY · L 2-4 · model gave 50%NYY2026-07-12 · vs NYY · L 3-5 · model gave 50%NYY2026-07-17 · @ ATH · W 23-4 · model gave 58%ATH2026-07-18 · @ ATH · L 1-15 · model gave 57%ATH2026-07-19 · @ ATH · W 5-2 · model gave 58%ATH2026-07-20 · @ COL · W 7-3 · model gave 59%COL2026-07-21 · @ COL · L 7-8 · model gave 57%COL2026-07-22 · @ COL · W 8-0 · model gave 58%COL2026-07-24 · vs ARI · L 2-3 · model gave 55%ARI2026-07-25 · vs ARI · W 5-3 · model gave 55%ARI2026-07-26 · vs ARI · W 10-7 · model gave 54%ARI2026-07-27 · vs TOR · L 2-3 · model gave 63%TOR2026-07-28 · vs TOR · W 8-6 · model gave 63%TOR2026-07-29 · vs TOR · L 2-5 · model gave 63%TOR2026-07-30 · @ ATL · L 4-5 · model gave 42%ATL

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

164 games · 2025-08-01 → 2026-07-30

Peak 1517 · Now 1495 · Trough 1421

Next 5 games

The road ahead

@ATLpwr 59
@ATLpwr 59
@PHIpwr —
@PHIpwr —
@PHIpwr —

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

2 moves
  1. Jun 12

    Designated Julian Fernández for assignment. Claimed RHP Jhancarlos Lara off waivers from Atlanta and optioned him to Harrisburg (EL).

  2. Jun 7

    Recalled RHP Riley Cornelio from Rochester (IL). Optioned RHP Cole Henry to Rochester.

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Andres Chaparro

A. Chaparro

1B · #87

Brady House

B. House

3B · #12

Cade Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP · #24

Carson Palmquist

C. Palmquist

RP · #51

CJ Abrams

C. Abrams

SS · #5

Clayton Beeter

C. Beeter

RP · #39

Daylen Lile

D. Lile

LF · #4

Dylan Crews

D. Crews

RF · #3

Eddy Yean

E. Yean

RP · #46

Foster Griffin

F. Griffin

SP · #22

Harry Ford

H. Ford

C · #17

Jacob Young

J. Young

CF · #30

Jake Irvin

J. Irvin

SP · #27

James Wood

J. Wood

RF · #29

Jorbit Vivas

J. Vivas

3B · #84

Jose Tena

J. Tena

DH · #8

Keibert Ruiz

K. Ruiz

C · #20

Luis Garcia Jr.

L. Garcia Jr.

1B · #2

Max Kranick

M. Kranick

RP · #35

Miles Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP · #36

Nasim Nunez

N. Nunez

2B · #26

Orlando Ribalta

O. Ribalta

RP · #64

Riley Cornelio

R. Cornelio

RP · #74

Tom Cosgrove

T. Cosgrove

RP · #34

Trevor Williams

T. Williams

SP · #32

Zack Littell

Z. Littell

SP · #18

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 56-37
60%Last 30 · 246-165
Receipts →

Model picks on WSH

17-18 graded · 48.6% (95% CI 33.0-64.4) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-04-07

All MLB · 698-590 graded

Tonight's graded board →