HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBNationals: Sent LHP DJ Herz on a rehab assignment to Fredericksburg (CRL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. Kurtz (ATH): 3 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over PIT — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBMarlins: Optioned RHP William Kempner to Jacksonville (IL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAJ. Shepard (DAL): 15 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST in a win over LV
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Ogunbowale (DAL): 22 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST in a win over LV
TRANSACTION · MLBBraves: Selected the contract of CF Brewer Hicklen from Gwinnett (IL) (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NFLTitans: Signed C Andre James and DL Jalyn Holmes to contracts (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLJets: Signed F Walker Duehr to a two-year contract (Jun 15)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Signed C Tins Luc Koblar to a three-year contract (Jun 15)
TONIGHT · WNBATOR @ IND, 6/16 - 7:00 PM EDT — IND -8.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBNationals: Sent LHP DJ Herz on a rehab assignment to Fredericksburg (CRL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. Kurtz (ATH): 3 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over PIT — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBMarlins: Optioned RHP William Kempner to Jacksonville (IL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAJ. Shepard (DAL): 15 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST in a win over LV
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Ogunbowale (DAL): 22 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST in a win over LV
TRANSACTION · MLBBraves: Selected the contract of CF Brewer Hicklen from Gwinnett (IL) (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NFLTitans: Signed C Andre James and DL Jalyn Holmes to contracts (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLJets: Signed F Walker Duehr to a two-year contract (Jun 15)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Signed C Tins Luc Koblar to a three-year contract (Jun 15)
TONIGHT · WNBATOR @ IND, 6/16 - 7:00 PM EDT — IND -8.5
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Washington Nationals
WSH#7 · National League

Washington Nationals

38-35 (52.1%) · W3 · L10 7-3

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#7 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .520 · exp 38-35 vs act 38-35 · n=73 · luck +0.0W · thru 2026-06-15 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-10 → 2026-06-15 · Full ATS profile →

LLost by 1 at SF, 10-11, 2026-06-10. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 8 vs SEA, 2-10, 2026-06-12. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 5 vs SEA, 8-3, 2026-06-13. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 9 vs SEA, 10-1, 2026-06-14. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 4 vs KC, 7-3, 2026-06-15. Covered the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1James Wood73 G.975
  2. 2CJ Abrams71 G.882
  3. 3Daylen Lile72 G.746
  4. 4Luis García Jr.67 G.743
  5. 5Jacob Young71 G.682

Home runs

  1. 1James Wood73 G20
  2. 2CJ Abrams71 G14
  3. 3Luis García Jr.67 G9
  4. 4Daylen Lile72 G8
  5. 5Jacob Young71 G8

RBI

  1. 1CJ Abrams71 G53
  2. 2James Wood73 G46
  3. 3Luis García Jr.67 G45
  4. 4Daylen Lile72 G37
  5. 5Jacob Young71 G28

Batting average

  1. 1CJ Abrams71 G.285
  2. 2James Wood73 G.282
  3. 3Daylen Lile72 G.263
  4. 4Luis García Jr.67 G.259
  5. 5Jacob Young71 G.234

Stolen bases

  1. 1Nasim Nuñez67 G25
  2. 2James Wood73 G13
  3. 3CJ Abrams71 G10
  4. 4Daylen Lile72 G7
  5. 5Jacob Young71 G6

ERA

  1. 1Foster Griffin78.0 IP3.46
  2. 2Cade Cavalli74.7 IP3.98

WHIP

  1. 1Foster Griffin78.0 IP1.09
  2. 2Cade Cavalli74.7 IP1.39

Strikeouts

  1. 1Cade Cavalli74.7 IP81
  2. 2Foster Griffin78.0 IP74

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.247vs .243Slight edge

OBP

.323vs .319League avg

SLG

.422vs .398Above avg

OPS

.745vs .717Slight edge

HR

95

R / G

5.5

K / G

8.2

Pitching

ERA

4.64vs 4.18Below avg

FIP (approx)

4.79vs 4.18Below avg

WHIP

1.38vs 1.31Below avg

K / 9

7.7vs 8.5Below avg

BB / 9

3.6vs 3.5Slight gap

BAA

.254

HR / 9

1.4

GP

73

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.40.81.11.51st · 0.83 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.671st2nd · 0.08 for / 0.50 against · margin -0.422nd3rd · 0.75 for / 0.08 against · margin +0.673rd4th · 0.50 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.334th5th · 0.75 for / 1.42 against · margin -0.675th6th · 0.92 for / 0.17 against · margin +0.756th7th · 1.08 for / 0.08 against · margin +1.00PEAK7th8th · 0.42 for / 0.83 against · margin -0.428th9th · 0.67 for / 0.92 against · margin -0.259thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

6.0 avg / 4.3 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

5.47

Blowout wins (4+)

9

Shutout games

0

Form last 30

17-13

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 5.5 runs

1234AVG 5.504142433453627282931011121314RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-05-14 → 2026-06-15

Record

17-13

Win pct

56.7%

Avg margin

+0.8

Longest W

4

Longest L

3

Upset wins

10

Favorite losses

5

2026-05-14 · @ CIN · L 1-15 · model gave 44%CIN2026-05-15 · vs BAL · W 3-2 · model gave 54%BAL2026-05-16 · vs BAL · W 13-3 · model gave 54%BAL2026-05-17 · vs BAL · L 3-7 · model gave 56%BAL2026-05-18 · vs NYM · L 7-16 · model gave 56%NYM2026-05-19 · vs NYM · W 9-6 · model gave 55%NYM2026-05-20 · vs NYM · W 8-4 · model gave 55%NYM2026-05-21 · vs NYM · L 1-2 · model gave 58%NYM2026-05-22 · @ ATL · L 4-5 · model gave 35%ATL2026-05-23 · @ ATL · W 2-0 · model gave 35%ATL2026-05-24 · @ ATL · W 2-1 · model gave 36%ATL2026-05-25 · @ CLE · W 10-2 · model gave 39%CLE2026-05-26 · @ CLE · W 6-3 · model gave 39%CLE2026-05-27 · @ CLE · L 2-3 · model gave 40%CLE2026-05-29 · vs SD · L 5-7 · model gave 50%SD2026-05-30 · vs SD · W 9-4 · model gave 48%SD2026-05-31 · vs SD · W 4-2 · model gave 48%SD2026-06-01 · vs MIA · L 3-7 · model gave 50%MIA2026-06-02 · vs MIA · L 3-7 · model gave 50%MIA2026-06-03 · vs MIA · L 1-4 · model gave 51%MIA2026-06-05 · @ ARI · W 14-1 · model gave 44%ARI2026-06-06 · @ ARI · W 6-1 · model gave 46%ARI2026-06-07 · @ ARI · L 1-5 · model gave 46%ARI2026-06-08 · @ SF · W 4-3 · model gave 44%SF2026-06-09 · @ SF · W 6-3 · model gave 44%SF2026-06-10 · @ SF · L 10-11 · model gave 45%SF2026-06-12 · vs SEA · L 2-10 · model gave 51%SEA2026-06-13 · vs SEA · W 8-3 · model gave 51%SEA2026-06-14 · vs SEA · W 10-1 · model gave 51%SEA2026-06-15 · vs KC · W 7-3 · model gave 58%KC

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

164 games · 2025-06-16 → 2026-06-15

Peak 1494 · Now 1494 · Trough 1421

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

2 moves
  1. Jun 12

    Designated Julian Fernández for assignment. Claimed RHP Jhancarlos Lara off waivers from Atlanta and optioned him to Harrisburg (EL).

  2. Jun 7

    Recalled RHP Riley Cornelio from Rochester (IL). Optioned RHP Cole Henry to Rochester.

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Andres Chaparro

A. Chaparro

1B · #87

Andrew Alvarez

A. Alvarez

RP · #54

Brad Lord

B. Lord

RP · #41

Cade Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP · #24

CJ Abrams

C. Abrams

SS · #5

Clayton Beeter

C. Beeter

RP · #39

Curtis Mead

C. Mead

1B · #45

Daylen Lile

D. Lile

LF · #4

Drew Millas

D. Millas

C · #14

Dylan Crews

D. Crews

RF · #3

Foster Griffin

F. Griffin

SP · #22

Gus Varland

G. Varland

RP · #47

Jacob Young

J. Young

CF · #30

James Wood

J. Wood

RF · #29

Jorbit Vivas

J. Vivas

3B · #84

Jose Tena

J. Tena

DH · #8

Keibert Ruiz

K. Ruiz

C · #20

Luis Garcia Jr.

L. Garcia Jr.

1B · #2

Miles Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP · #36

Mitchell Parker

M. Parker

RP · #70

Nasim Nunez

N. Nunez

2B · #26

Orlando Ribalta

O. Ribalta

RP · #64

Paxton Schultz

P. Schultz

RP · #75

PJ Poulin

P. Poulin

RP · #50

Richard Lovelady

R. Lovelady

RP · #55

Zack Littell

Z. Littell

SP · #18

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 62-35
61%Last 30 · 299-189
Receipts →

Model picks on WSH

Below the 30-pick gate (n=27)