MLBPublic track record

What the model has actually called

Every completed MLB game we've published a prediction on. No cherry-picking, no hindsight edits — the prediction was logged before the game finished and the result is whatever happened. Refreshed every 10 minutes.

53.9%Last 30 days
68.1%Lock tier · all-time
2996Games called

Accuracy windows

Last 7 days

55.0%

55 / 100 games

Last 30 days

53.9%

215 / 399 games

This season

55.4%

271 / 489 games

All-time

55.1%

1650 / 2996 games

By model confidence · all-time

Locks

≥85% model conviction

68%139/204

Edges

65–85% conviction

57%420/741

Leans

55–65% conviction

54%483/899

Tossups

50–55% conviction

53%608/1152

Higher-conviction tiers should hit at higher rates. If they don't, the model is poorly calibrated — the table tells the truth either way.

Bet-history simulator

Bankroll simulator · $100 per pick

Ending bankroll

$2274

Net profit

+$1274

ROI

3.2%

Picks

396

Simulates $100 per pick at standard −110 juice (+$91 win, −$100 loss) on every completed MLB model pick in the window. Real betting layers in book vig variance, line shopping, and bet-sizing — this is the "follow every pick flat" baseline.

Last 30 days · daily hit rate

399 games · 215 correct · 53.9%

50% baseline ←→ 100%

Download picks ledgerCSV · every completed pick

Where to play

21+ · Bet responsibly · 1-800-GAMBLER

Predictions logged at game start · results compared to actual outcomes · no editing after the fact. Bet responsibly · 21+ · 1-800-GAMBLER