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LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Bradish (BAL): 7.2 IP · 12 K · 1 ER in a win over SEA — Standout Index 94
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Stowers (MIA): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over PHI — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. McLean (NYM): 7.0 IP · 9 K in a win over CIN — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBR. Ray (SF): 6.1 IP · 8 K in a win over ATL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST in a win over PHX
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Citron (WSH): 26 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST in a win over CON
TONIGHT · WNBAATL @ IND, 6/18 - 7:30 PM EDT — IND -1.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Bradish (BAL): 7.2 IP · 12 K · 1 ER in a win over SEA — Standout Index 94
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Stowers (MIA): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over PHI — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. McLean (NYM): 7.0 IP · 9 K in a win over CIN — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBR. Ray (SF): 6.1 IP · 8 K in a win over ATL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST in a win over PHX
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Citron (WSH): 26 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST in a win over CON
TONIGHT · WNBAATL @ IND, 6/18 - 7:30 PM EDT — IND -1.5
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Cleveland Guardians
CLE#4 · American League

Cleveland Guardians

39-35 (52.7%) · L2 · L10 3-7

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#14 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .486 · exp 36-38 vs act 39-35 · n=74 · luck +3.0W · thru 2026-06-17 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-10 → 2026-06-17 · Full ATS profile →

LLost by 4 vs NYY, 4-8, 2026-06-10. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 1 vs DET, 3-2, 2026-06-12. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 2 vs DET, 3-1, 2026-06-13. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 1 at MIL, 1-2, 2026-06-16. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 5 at MIL, 4-9, 2026-06-17. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1José Ramírez72 G.757
  2. 2Chase DeLauter66 G.745
  3. 3Brayan Rocchio71 G.733
  4. 4Angel Martínez66 G.718
  5. 5Steven Kwan66 G.574

Home runs

  1. 1Angel Martínez66 G11
  2. 2José Ramírez72 G10
  3. 3Chase DeLauter66 G7
  4. 4Brayan Rocchio71 G5
  5. 5Steven Kwan66 G1

RBI

  1. 1Chase DeLauter66 G34
  2. 2Angel Martínez66 G33
  3. 3José Ramírez72 G33
  4. 4Brayan Rocchio71 G32
  5. 5Steven Kwan66 G13

Batting average

  1. 1Brayan Rocchio71 G.265
  2. 2Chase DeLauter66 G.263
  3. 3Angel Martínez66 G.239
  4. 4José Ramírez72 G.239
  5. 5Steven Kwan66 G.209

Stolen bases

  1. 1José Ramírez72 G24
  2. 2Brayan Rocchio71 G12
  3. 3Angel Martínez66 G9
  4. 4Steven Kwan66 G3
  5. 5Chase DeLauter66 G2

ERA

  1. 1Parker Messick80.7 IP2.68
  2. 2Gavin Williams91.7 IP3.83
  3. 3Tanner Bibee84.0 IP3.96
  4. 4Slade Cecconi78.3 IP4.60

WHIP

  1. 1Parker Messick80.7 IP1.09
  2. 2Gavin Williams91.7 IP1.13
  3. 3Tanner Bibee84.0 IP1.18
  4. 4Slade Cecconi78.3 IP1.40

Strikeouts

  1. 1Gavin Williams91.7 IP103
  2. 2Parker Messick80.7 IP82
  3. 3Tanner Bibee84.0 IP71
  4. 4Slade Cecconi78.3 IP65

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.229vs .243Below avg

OBP

.314vs .319Slight gap

SLG

.368vs .398Below avg

OPS

.682vs .718Slight gap

HR

67

R / G

4.0

K / G

7.9

Pitching

ERA

3.81vs 4.18Above avg

FIP (approx)

3.99vs 4.19Slight edge

WHIP

1.26vs 1.31Slight edge

K / 9

9.2vs 8.5Above avg

BB / 9

3.3vs 3.5Above avg

BAA

.237

HR / 9

1.2

GP

74

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.30.50.81.01st · 0.17 for / 0.67 against · margin -0.501st2nd · 0.33 for / 0.67 against · margin -0.332nd3rd · 0.58 for / 0.50 against · margin +0.083rd4th · 0.92 for / 0.50 against · margin +0.42PEAK4th5th · 0.33 for / 0.08 against · margin +0.255th6th · 0.33 for / 0.67 against · margin -0.336th7th · 0.08 for / 0.33 against · margin -0.257th8th · 0.17 for / 0.58 against · margin -0.428th9th · 0.08 for / 0.08 against · margin +0.009thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

3.0 avg / 4.1 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

3.70

Blowout wins (4+)

4

Shutout games

2

Form last 30

16-14

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 3.7 runs

2457AVG 3.7041327364567891011RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-05-13 → 2026-06-17

Record

16-14

Win pct

53.3%

Avg margin

-0.4

Longest W

7

Longest L

4

Upset wins

5

Favorite losses

5

2026-05-13 · vs LAA · W 4-2 · model gave 61%LAA2026-05-15 · vs CIN · L 6-7 · model gave 56%CIN2026-05-16 · vs CIN · W 7-4 · model gave 56%CIN2026-05-17 · vs CIN · W 10-3 · model gave 53%CIN2026-05-18 · @ DET · W 8-2 · model gave 57%DET2026-05-19 · @ DET · W 4-3 · model gave 59%DET2026-05-20 · @ DET · W 3-2 · model gave 59%DET2026-05-21 · @ DET · W 3-1 · model gave 58%DET2026-05-22 · @ PHI · W 1-0 · model gave 49%PHI2026-05-23 · @ PHI · L 0-3 · model gave 49%PHI2026-05-24 · @ PHI · W 3-1 · model gave 48%PHI2026-05-25 · vs WSH · L 2-10 · model gave 61%WSH2026-05-26 · vs WSH · L 3-6 · model gave 61%WSH2026-05-27 · vs WSH · W 3-2 · model gave 60%WSH2026-05-29 · vs BOS · W 4-3 · model gave 60%BOS2026-05-30 · vs BOS · L 1-9 · model gave 60%BOS2026-05-31 · vs BOS · L 4-9 · model gave 60%BOS2026-06-02 · @ NYY · W 9-4 · model gave 40%NYY2026-06-03 · @ NYY · W 5-4 · model gave 41%NYY2026-06-04 · @ NYY · L 1-2 · model gave 40%NYY2026-06-05 · @ TEX · L 2-3 · model gave 49%TEX2026-06-06 · @ TEX · W 6-0 · model gave 49%TEX2026-06-07 · @ TEX · L 0-10 · model gave 48%TEX2026-06-08 · vs NYY · L 5-7 · model gave 41%NYY2026-06-09 · vs NYY · L 2-3 · model gave 42%NYY2026-06-10 · vs NYY · L 4-8 · model gave 42%NYY2026-06-12 · vs DET · W 3-2 · model gave 60%DET2026-06-13 · vs DET · W 3-1 · model gave 60%DET2026-06-16 · @ MIL · L 1-2 · model gave 36%MIL2026-06-17 · @ MIL · L 4-9 · model gave 36%MIL

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

169 games · 2025-06-18 → 2026-06-17

Peak 1542 · Now 1511 · Trough 1459

Next 5 games

The road ahead

@MILpwr 63
@HOUpwr 55
@HOUpwr 55
@HOUpwr 55
@CHWpwr —

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

1 move
  1. Jun 12

    Recalled RHP Daniel Espino from Columbus (IL).

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Austin Hedges

A. Hedges

C · #27

Brayan Rocchio

B. Rocchio

SS · #4

Cade Smith

C. Smith

RP · #36

Colin Holderman

C. Holderman

RP · #35

Daniel Espino

D. Espino

SP · #41

Daniel Schneemann

D. Schneemann

CF · #10

David Fry

D. Fry

RF · #6

Gabriel Arias

G. Arias

SS · #13

Gavin Williams

G. Williams

SP · #32

Hunter Gaddis

H. Gaddis

RP · #33

Joey Cantillo

J. Cantillo

SP · #54

Kahlil Watson

K. Watson

LF · #31

Kyle Manzardo

K. Manzardo

1B · #9

Matt Festa

M. Festa

RP · #52

Parker Messick

P. Messick

SP · #77

Patrick Bailey

P. Bailey

C · #16

Petey Halpin

P. Halpin

CF · #0

Rhys Hoskins

R. Hoskins

1B · #8

Shawn Armstrong

S. Armstrong

RP · #43

Slade Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP · #44

Steven Kwan

S. Kwan

CF · #38

Stuart Fairchild

S. Fairchild

RF · #17

Tanner Bibee

T. Bibee

SP · #28

Tim Herrin

T. Herrin

RP · #29

Travis Bazzana

T. Bazzana

2B · #37

Will Dion

W. Dion

SP · #98

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 63-40
61%Last 30 · 296-193
Receipts →

Model picks on CLE

20-17 graded · 54.1% (95% CI 38.4-69.0) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-04-03

All MLB · 605-483 graded

Tonight's graded board →