
DET
54-58

ATH
45-67
Line movement
200 snapshots
ATH spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 11.0
open O/U 11.0
ATH no-vig %
48.9%
open 49.4% · -0.4
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
DET
league avg
ATH
.728
OPS
.720
.720
.318
OBP
.318
.320
4.50
Runs / G
4.50
4.35
3.57
Team ERA
4.18
5.42
1.21
WHIP
1.30
1.50
8.5
K / 9
8.5
▶8.6
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
DET wins
DET 11 · ATH 0 (by 11)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked DET +9pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| ATH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
On the call · MLB
4 officials
Home Plate Umpire
Jeremie Rehak
First Base Umpire
Dan Iassogna
Second Base Umpire
Adam Beck
Third Base Umpire
Louie Krupa
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+6.1pp
best edge · ATH · DraftKings
DET
no live price
ATH
★ bestedge +6.1pp · implied 29.6%
| Book | DET | ATH | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -299 | +217★ | +6.1 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
The receipts
+0.43
CLV pp
Open price
-113
Close price
-115
Open no-vig
50.6%
Close no-vig
51.1%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
How we read this game
DET · top performer

James Outman
CF
1-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
ATH · top performer

Brian Serven
C
1-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 1st Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .269 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| .270 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| .287 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| .452 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .220 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .267 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .500 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| .268 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .211 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .266 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .176 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 38 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 7 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 86 | |
| 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 136 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .185 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .242 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .232 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .283 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .211 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .262 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .265 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .251 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .253 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .200 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .250 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 33 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 88 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | |
| 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 40 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 204 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantDET
ATH
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
12
Hits
7
11
Runs
0
0
Errors
0
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
ATH
Home
11
Runs
0
12
Hits
7
0
Errors
0
18
TB
8
1
HR
0
9
BB
2
7
K
7
22
LOB
13
Current series
DET wins series 3-0
Season series
DET wins series 6-0
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -1.5
Total
10.0
High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
2· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it ended
DET beat ATH 11-0. J. Outman led the way — 1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS. Torkelson's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactTorkelson · doubled to center, Dingler scored and Torres scored.
Torres · singled to center, Clark scored and Malgeri scored, McKinstry to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| ATH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Betting line
DET -1.5·O/U 10·DET -126/ATH +105
Recap · MLB
etroit Tigers went into Athletics and beat them, 11–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
DET -1.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 10.0 OVER by 1.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
10.0
0.0 since open
Win probability
ATH vs DET
Period scoring
DET won 4 · ATH won 0
Inn 1
Torkelson 2
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Torres 2
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Valencia 2
Inn 9
Outman 1
Play-by-play · 648 plays
End of the 9th inning
DET 11·ATH 0
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Bolte struck out swinging.
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Enmanuel De Jesus pitches to Henry Bolte
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
McNeil singled to left, Serven to second.
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Enmanuel De Jesus pitches to Jeff McNeil
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Williams struck out swinging.
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
Enmanuel De Jesus pitches to Alika Williams
· ·
DET 11·ATH 0
·
DET 11·ATH 0
Serven singled to left.
·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
DET 11·ATH 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
DET 11·ATH 0
Enmanuel De Jesus pitches to Brian Serven
·
DET 11·ATH 0
Serven hit for Cortes
·
DET 11·ATH 0
·
DET 11·ATH 0
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 90 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
33.3%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
41.4%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.7%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.9%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.05 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.