Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at ATH?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Detroit Tigers vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 2, 2026

FINAL+11DET

DET

54-58

110

ATH

45-67

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

8,237 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

ATH no-vig %

48.9%

open 49.4% · -0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

31.9%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
40.6%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.9%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.43

CLV pp

Open price

-113

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

50.6%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at ATH?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.6pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

DET

no live price

ATH

★ best

+217DraftKings

edge +4.6pp · implied 29.6%

Book	DET	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	-299	+217★	+4.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATH vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gage JumpATH
5.8± 3.0low
Troy MeltonDET
5.6± 3.1low
J.T. GinnATH
4.9± 1.6high

Hits

Max ClarkDET
2.0± 1.4low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
3.7± 3.1low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Max ClarkDET
1.0± 1.4low
Hao-Yu LeeDET
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high
Gage JumpATH
2.8± 3.4low
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

ATH

.731

OPS

◀

.720

.319

OBP

.318

.320

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.35

3.56

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.42

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.50

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 11 · ATH 0 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	2	0	0	4	0	0	0	4	1	11
ATH	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Detroit TigersAthletics

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. Torres2B	.269	2	3	1	2	0	4	0
D. DinglerC	.270	5	2	2	0	0	0	3
K. McGonigleSS	.287	4	1	0	0	0	2	1
E. ValenciaC	.452	5	1	2	4	0	0	2
S. Torkelson1B	.220	5	0	2	3	0	0	0
H. Lee2B	.267	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. ClarkCF	.500	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
B. MalgeriRF	.268	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.211	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.266	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.176	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		38	11	12	11	1	9	7

Player

.269

.270

.287

.452

.220

.267

.500

.268

.211

.266

.176

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. MonteroSP	6.0	2	0	0	2	2	86
T. HoltonRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	9
D. AndersonRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	22
E. De JesusRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	3	19
Team	9.0	7	0	0	2	7	136

Player

6.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

136

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. Walton2B	.185	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. SoderstromLF	.242	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. HeimC	.232	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. White3B	.283	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. ButlerRF	.211	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. CortesRF	.262	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. WilliamsSS	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.251	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
H. BolteCF	.253	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OrnelasSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ServenC	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	0	7	0	0	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. JumpSP	3.2	4	6	6	6	5	88
C. CortesRF	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	18
E. AlvaradoRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	22
H. HarrisRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	17
H. JuengerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19
B. BowdenRP	1.0	2	4	4	2	0	40
Team	9.0	12	11	11	9	7	204

Team

DET

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATH vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

ATH vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.