Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 28, 2026

FINAL+2WSH

TOR

49-59

WSH

55-53

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

20,775 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

WSH no-vig %

56.4%

open 58.3% · -1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.5%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
62.3%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.2%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.2%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.88

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-156

Close price

-144

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

56.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.1pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

TOR

no live price

WSH

★ best

-135DraftKings

edge +8.1pp · implied 54.9%

Book	TOR	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	+112	-135★	+8.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high
Jose SorianoTOR
5.2± 2.6high

Hits

George SpringerTOR
1.0± 0.6high
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
1.0± 1.1high
Alejandro KirkTOR
0.9± 0.7high

Total bases

Abimelec OrtizWSH
1.8± 2.3low
CJ AbramsWSH
1.7± 1.9high
Daylen LileWSH
1.7± 2.5high

RBIs

CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 1.1high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.6± 0.7high
George SpringerTOR
0.5± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonTOR
3.5± 2.7medium
Max ScherzerTOR
3.4± 3.9low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

WSH

.679

OPS

.719

▶

.766

.302

OBP

.318

▶

.327

3.90

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.34

4.06

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.75

1.32

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.40

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

TOR 6 · WSH 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	3	0	6
WSH	4	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. PinangoLF	.256	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. LukesRF	.285	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.265	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. SpringerDH	.234	3	1	1	3	1	1	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.228	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
D. VarshoCF	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. Clement2B	.296	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. GimenezSS	.231	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
L. Urias2B	.214	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. StrawRF	.218	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Okamoto3B	.226	2	2	1	1	1	0	0
Team		35	6	8	5	2	2	6

Player

.256

.285

.265

.234

.228

.245

.296

.231

.214

.218

.226

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BieberSP	0.2	1	4	4	6	0	42
B. LittleRP	2.1	0	0	0	0	4	27
M. FluhartyRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	1	19
C. Van EykSP	3.1	6	2	1	1	0	69
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
Team	8.0	8	8	7	8	7	173

Player

0.2

2.1

0.2

3.1

1.0

Team

8.0

173

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.269	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.282	5	1	2	2	1	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.229	4	2	1	1	1	1	2
C. AbramsSS	.294	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.267	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
D. LileLF	.245	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
N. Nunez2B	.248	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.240	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. YoungCF	.235	0	1	0	2	0	3	0
B. House3B	.240	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team		31	8	8	8	2	8	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CavalliSP	6.0	6	3	2	2	3	98
T. CosgroveRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
G. VarlandRP	0.0	2	3	2	0	0	16
O. RibaltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
C. BeeterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	8	6	4	2	6	153

Team

TOR

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.