Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAA at BAL?

The model favors BAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 4, 2026

FINAL+2BAL

LAA

43-70

BAL

55-58

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

18,585 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BAL no-vig %

57.3%

open 55.1% · +2.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.3%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
62.3%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.3%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.6%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.15

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-136

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAA at BAL?: The model favors BAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.3pp

best edge · LAA · DraftKings

LAA

★ best

+660DraftKings

edge +24.3pp · implied 12.7%

BAL

no live price

Book	LAA	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	+660★	-930	+24.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.3± 2.0high
Trevor RogersBAL
5.3± 1.9high
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.0high

Hits

Mike TroutLAA
1.1± 1.2high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.0± 0.9high
Jackson HollidayBAL
0.9± 1.4high

Total bases

Coby MayoBAL
1.7± 2.2high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.6± 2.0high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.5± 2.5low

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
0.8± 1.8low
Vaughn GrissomLAA
0.7± 0.8high
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
3.5± 2.7low
Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.3± 3.3low
Kyle BradishBAL
2.5± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

league avg

BAL

.693

OPS

.719

▶

.711

.312

OBP

.318

▶

.319

4.15

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.52

4.49

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.21

1.36

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.34

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

LAA 1 · BAL 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
BAL	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.230	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. TroutCF	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
N. Schanuel1B	.275	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
V. Grissom2B	.261	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
D. Guzman3B	.231	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. BallesterosC	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. d'ArnaudC	.190	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. SiriCF	.255	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. MecklerLF	.303	3	0	2	0	0	1	1
J. LoweLF	.206	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.207	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	1	11	1	0	2	11

Player

.230

.245

.275

.261

.231

.250

.190

.255

.303

.206

.207

.211

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. RodriguezSP	7.0	3	2	2	1	6	98
M. FarrisRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	22
Team	8.0	4	3	3	2	7	120

Player

G. RodriguezSP

7.0

M. FarrisRP

1.0

Team

8.0

120

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BeaversRF	.244	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.251	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
G. HendersonSS	.217	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Encarnacion-Strand3B	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Holliday2B	.247	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mayo3B	.201	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. FranklinLF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. CowserCF	.206	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. NarvaezC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.213	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
L. TaverasCF	.219	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	3	4	3	1	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PovichSP	6.0	7	0	0	1	7	88
R. GarciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	22
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	15
Y. CanoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19
Team	9.0	11	1	1	2	11	144

Team

LAA

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs LAA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs LAA.

3 sub-models, blended.