Park factor
104 total idx
Fenway Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
TOR
TOR
37-39
PregameSun, 1:35 PM EDT
BOS
BOS
30-43
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketFenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesBOS wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.8%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 93 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4± 3.0low
- Payton TolleBOS6.0± 3.7low
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.7± 3.6low
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.1± 0.9high
- Nathan LukesTOR1.1± 0.7high
- Willson ContrerasBOS1.0± 1.1high
Total bases
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2.1± 2.4high
- Willson ContrerasBOS2.0± 3.1high
- Brandon ValenzuelaTOR1.9± 1.9high
RBIs
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS0.7± 1.3high
- Brandon ValenzuelaTOR0.7± 0.7high
- Marcelo MayerBOS0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Kevin GausmanTOR2.8± 2.7medium
- Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR2.8± 3.3low
- Jake BennettBOS2.7± 2.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
BOS
.703
OPS
◀
.719
.695
.312
OBP
.319
.312
4.05
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.95
4.11
Team ERA
4.19
▶3.90
1.30
WHIP
1.31
▶1.27
9.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.5
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant