Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 25, 2026

FINAL+2WSH

ARI

55-50

WSH

53-52

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

30,032 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

WSH no-vig %

56.1%

open 54.2% · +1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
55.2%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.8%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.3pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

ARI

no live price

WSH

★ best

+166DraftKings

edge +20.3pp · implied 35.3%

Book	ARI	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	-222	+166★	+20.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high
Jake IrvinWSH
4.8± 3.1low
Kohl DrakeARI
4.0± 3.6low

Hits

James McCannARI
1.5± 1.2high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.2± 0.8high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.4± 2.6high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.1± 3.3high
Daylen LileWSH
1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.1± 1.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high
Jake IrvinWSH
2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

WSH

.706

OPS

.720

▶

.768

.314

OBP

.318

▶

.327

4.54

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.35

4.18

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.77

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.40

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

ARI 3 · WSH 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3
WSH	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Arizona DiamondbacksWashington Nationals

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrollRF	.250	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.232	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. MorenoC	.311	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
K. Marte2B	.255	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Vargas1B	.270	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Arenado3B	.246	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. TawaLF	.241	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. McCannC	.260	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.257	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. KeplerLF	.217	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	6	3	0	1	2

Player

.250

.232

.311

.255

.270

.246

.241

.260

.257

.217

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BrattSP	5.0	7	5	5	5	3	92
G. CarrilloRP	2.0	2	0	0	2	2	35
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	8.0	9	5	5	7	6	136

Player

M. BrattSP

5.0

G. CarrilloRP

2.0

T. ClarkeRP

1.0

Team

8.0

136

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.269	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. Mead3B	.254	3	1	0	0	0	2	0
A. Chaparro1B	.222	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.293	4	1	3	3	1	0	0
D. CrewsRF	.218	1	1	0	0	0	3	1
J. YoungCF	.232	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
D. LileLF	.244	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.249	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
K. RuizC	.272	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.275	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	5	9	5	1	7	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GriffinSP	6.2	6	3	3	1	2	108
E. YeanRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	16
C. BeeterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	6	3	3	1	2	133

Team

ARI

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.