
55-54 (50.5%) · L2 · L10 5-5
Model verdict
The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)
#20 of 30
Pyth(1.83) .478 · exp 52.2-56.8 vs act 55-54 · n=109 · luck +2.8W · thru 2026-07-31 · mlb_game_results
Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Last 5 form
2026-07-26 → 2026-07-30 · Full ATS profile →
Stat leaders
OPS
Home runs
RBI
Batting average
Stolen bases
ERA
WHIP
Strikeouts
2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool
Team rate stats · 2026
MLB Stats API
Hitting
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
HR
125
R / G
4.1
K / G
8.4
Pitching
ERA
FIP (approx)
WHIP
K / 9
BB / 9
BAA
.245
HR / 9
1.3
GP
110
Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.
Inning identity
Pattern by inning
12 games · for vs against
4.7 avg / 4.1 allowed
Plate signature
Plate identity
From the catcher's view · last 30 games
Avg runs / game
4.63
Blowout wins (4+)
6
Shutout games
2
Form last 30
17-13
Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.
Run-scoring identity
Scoring distribution
30 games · avg 4.6 runs
Form heatmap
Margin trail
Last 30 games · 2026-06-24 → 2026-07-30
Record
17-13
Win pct
56.7%
Avg margin
-0.3
Longest W
6
Longest L
2
Upset wins
4
Favorite losses
7
Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.
Model rating arc
162 games · 2025-08-01 → 2026-07-30
Peak 1546 · Now 1513 · Trough 1461
Recent transactions
Recalled RHP Luis Curvelo from Round Rock (PCL). Placed LHP Jalen Beeks on the 15-day IL retroactive to June 10.
Optioned RHP Luis Curvelo to Round Rock (PCL). Sent 2B Josh Smith on a rehab assignment to Round Rock. Reinstated RHP Cole Winn from the 15-day IL.
Released LF Sam Haggerty.
Source · ESPN
Position players · 26

A. Osuna
LF · #19

A. Wynns
C · #38

B. Peoples
RP · #70

B. Nimmo
RF · #24

C. Quantrill
RP · #44

C. Cauley
CF · #27

C. Silseth
RP · #63

C. Winn
RP · #60

C. Seager
SS · #5

E. Diaz
C · #35

E. Carter
CF · #32

E. Duran
SS · #20

J. deGrom
SP · #48

J. Latz
RP · #67

J. Burger
1B · #21

J. Pederson
DH · #3

J. Foscue
2B · #14

K. Rocker
SP · #80

L. Curvelo
RP · #57

M. Gore
SP · #1

N. Eovaldi
SP · #17

N. Lopez
2B · #33

P. Gray
RP · #75

R. Ahlstrom
RP · #54

T. Alexander
RP · #13

W. Langford
LF · #36
Model picks on TEX
21-20 graded · 51.2% (95% CI 36.5-65.7) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-31
All MLB · 698-590 graded