HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
MLBBot 3
DET 1@ATH 1
+0.5pphigh
MLBEnd 1
BOS 0@LAD 0
-0.2ppmedium
MLBBot 1
MIN 0@SEA 0
-2.2ppmedium
MLBTop 4
KC 0@COL 1
+29.9pphigh
MLBTop 4
MIL 1@LAA 0
-23.3ppmedium
MLBTop 3
SF 0@SD 2
+34.4pplow
MLBBot 6
TEX 2@HOU 6
+41.8pplow
WNBA47.6 - 1st
IND 24@POR 21
TONIGHTGraded picks 4-6 so far (MLB 2-6, WNBA 2-0)
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Burke (CHW): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over NYY — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST in a win over NY
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. Cameron (KC): 8.0 IP · 7 K against MIN
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBTigers: Recalled LHP Enmanuel De Jesus from Toledo (IL) (Jul 31)
MLBBot 3
DET 1@ATH 1
+0.5pphigh
MLBEnd 1
BOS 0@LAD 0
-0.2ppmedium
MLBBot 1
MIN 0@SEA 0
-2.2ppmedium
MLBTop 4
KC 0@COL 1
+29.9pphigh
MLBTop 4
MIL 1@LAA 0
-23.3ppmedium
MLBTop 3
SF 0@SD 2
+34.4pplow
MLBBot 6
TEX 2@HOU 6
+41.8pplow
WNBA47.6 - 1st
IND 24@POR 21
TONIGHTGraded picks 4-6 so far (MLB 2-6, WNBA 2-0)
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Burke (CHW): 6.0 IP · 10 K in a win over NYY — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Wilson (LV): 33 PTS · 10 REB · 6 AST in a win over NY
LAST NIGHT · MLBN. Cameron (KC): 8.0 IP · 7 K against MIN
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBTigers: Recalled LHP Enmanuel De Jesus from Toledo (IL) (Jul 31)
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Minnesota Twins
MIN#7 · American League

Minnesota Twins

55-55 (50.0%) · W1 · L10 6-4

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#21 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .475 · exp 52.3-57.7 vs act 55-55 · n=110 · luck +2.7W · thru 2026-07-31 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-07-25 → 2026-07-30 · Full ATS profile →

WWon by 2 vs ATH, 2-0, 2026-07-25. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 3 vs ATH, 11-8, 2026-07-26. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 1 vs KC, 3-2, 2026-07-28. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 4 vs KC, 0-4, 2026-07-29. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 1 vs KC, 4-3, 2026-07-30. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Byron Buxton82 G.864
  2. 2Kody Clemens96 G.790
  3. 3Brooks Lee106 G.719
  4. 4Josh Bell107 G.711
  5. 5Luke Keaschall103 G.687

Home runs

  1. 1Byron Buxton82 G25
  2. 2Kody Clemens96 G19
  3. 3Brooks Lee106 G15
  4. 4Josh Bell107 G13
  5. 5Luke Keaschall103 G4

RBI

  1. 1Josh Bell107 G63
  2. 2Brooks Lee106 G56
  3. 3Kody Clemens96 G53
  4. 4Byron Buxton82 G45
  5. 5Luke Keaschall103 G30

Batting average

  1. 1Byron Buxton82 G.263
  2. 2Luke Keaschall103 G.256
  3. 3Brooks Lee106 G.244
  4. 4Kody Clemens96 G.243
  5. 5Josh Bell107 G.242

Stolen bases

  1. 1Luke Keaschall103 G13
  2. 2Byron Buxton82 G7
  3. 3Brooks Lee106 G7
  4. 4Kody Clemens96 G7
  5. 5Josh Bell107 G1

ERA

  1. 1Joe Ryan120.3 IP3.52
  2. 2Taj Bradley120.7 IP3.65

WHIP

  1. 1Joe Ryan120.3 IP1.11
  2. 2Taj Bradley120.7 IP1.21

Strikeouts

  1. 1Taj Bradley120.7 IP139
  2. 2Joe Ryan120.3 IP135

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.244vs .244League avg

OBP

.319vs .318League avg

SLG

.405vs .401League avg

OPS

.724vs .720League avg

HR

127

R / G

4.7

K / G

8.1

Pitching

ERA

4.62vs 4.18Below avg

FIP (approx)

4.35vs 4.19Slight gap

WHIP

1.38vs 1.30Below avg

K / 9

8.4vs 8.5League avg

BB / 9

3.7vs 3.4Below avg

BAA

.252

HR / 9

1.2

GP

111

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.30.50.81.01st · 0.42 for / 0.58 against · margin -0.171st2nd · 0.50 for / 0.67 against · margin -0.172nd3rd · 0.17 for / 1.00 against · margin -0.833rd4th · 0.58 for / 0.50 against · margin +0.084th5th · 0.00 for / 0.50 against · margin -0.505th6th · 0.25 for / 0.75 against · margin -0.506th7th · 0.25 for / 0.67 against · margin -0.427th8th · 0.67 for / 0.08 against · margin +0.58PEAK8th9th · 0.50 for / 0.25 against · margin +0.259thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

3.3 avg / 5.0 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

4.30

Blowout wins (4+)

4

Shutout games

2

Form last 30

17-13

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.3 runs

2457AVG 4.301527344456789101112RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-06-23 → 2026-07-30

Record

17-13

Win pct

56.7%

Avg margin

-0.3

Longest W

4

Longest L

4

Upset wins

7

Favorite losses

4

2026-06-23 · vs LAD · L 3-12 · model gave 42%LAD2026-06-24 · vs LAD · L 3-4 · model gave 48%LAD2026-06-26 · vs COL · W 9-8 · model gave 71%COL2026-06-27 · vs COL · L 5-8 · model gave 71%COL2026-06-28 · vs COL · W 3-2 · model gave 71%COL2026-06-29 · @ HOU · W 5-4 · model gave 44%HOU2026-06-30 · @ HOU · L 4-6 · model gave 44%HOU2026-07-01 · @ HOU · W 8-3 · model gave 46%HOU2026-07-03 · @ NYY · L 2-5 · model gave 49%NYY2026-07-04 · @ NYY · W 11-4 · model gave 49%NYY2026-07-05 · @ NYY · W 6-1 · model gave 51%NYY2026-07-07 · vs CLE · W 3-1 · model gave 50%CLE2026-07-08 · vs CLE · W 6-5 · model gave 48%CLE2026-07-09 · vs CLE · L 2-5 · model gave 48%CLE2026-07-10 · vs LAA · L 3-4 · model gave 69%LAA2026-07-11 · vs LAA · W 5-3 · model gave 69%LAA2026-07-12 · vs LAA · W 4-2 · model gave 69%LAA2026-07-17 · @ CHC · W 5-2 · model gave 42%CHC2026-07-18 · @ CHC · L 2-6 · model gave 41%CHC2026-07-19 · @ CHC · L 1-10 · model gave 43%CHC2026-07-20 · @ CLE · L 4-13 · model gave 43%CLE2026-07-21 · @ CLE · L 2-5 · model gave 42%CLE2026-07-22 · @ CLE · W 10-6 · model gave 43%CLE2026-07-23 · @ CLE · W 3-1 · model gave 44%CLE2026-07-24 · vs ATH · L 0-2 · model gave 68%ATH2026-07-25 · vs ATH · W 2-0 · model gave 69%ATH2026-07-26 · vs ATH · W 11-8 · model gave 67%ATH2026-07-28 · vs KC · W 3-2 · model gave 60%KC2026-07-29 · vs KC · L 0-4 · model gave 60%KC2026-07-30 · vs KC · W 4-3 · model gave 60%KC

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

164 games · 2025-08-01 → 2026-07-30

Peak 1534 · Now 1532 · Trough 1419

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

2 moves
  1. Jun 10

    Sent RHP Mick Abel on a rehab assignment to St. Paul (IL).

  2. Jun 8

    Agreed to terms with RHP Failin Placencio on a minor league contract. Acquired RHP Taylor Rashi from Arizona in exchange for cash considerations.

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Alan Roden

A. Roden

RF · #18

Alex Jackson

A. Jackson

C · #70

A

A. Morris

RP · #78

Austin Martin

A. Martin

RF · #16

Bailey Ober

B. Ober

SP · #17

Brooks Lee

B. Lee

3B · #22

Connor Prielipp

C. Prielipp

SP · #61

J

J. Anderson

RP · #30

Joe Ryan

J. Ryan

SP · #41

Josh Bell

J. Bell

DH · #56

Kendry Rojas

K. Rojas

RP · #60

Kody Clemens

K. Clemens

1B · #2

Kody Funderburk

K. Funderburk

RP · #57

Luke Keaschall

L. Keaschall

2B · #15

Royce Lewis

R. Lewis

3B · #23

Ryan Jeffers

R. Jeffers

C · #27

Ryan Kreidler

R. Kreidler

SS · #5

Taj Bradley

T. Bradley

SP · #26

Taylor Rogers

T. Rogers

RP · #55

Tommy Nance

T. Nance

RP · #35

Travis Adams

T. Adams

RP · #45

Trevor Larnach

T. Larnach

LF · #9

Tristan Gray

T. Gray

SS · #4

Victor Caratini

V. Caratini

C · #37

Yoendrys Gomez

Y. Gomez

RP · #94

Zebby Matthews

Z. Matthews

SP · #52

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 60-42
60%Last 30 · 250-170
Receipts →

Model picks on MIN

Below the 30-pick gate (n=27)