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FINAL+2NYY
NYY
62-48
20
CHC
62-48
Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
40,129 attended
Line movement
200 snapshots
CHC spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 0.0 · +9.0
CHC no-vig %
58.3%
open 56.1% · +2.1
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.8%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
58.7%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.3%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.8%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.45 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+2.30
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-142
Close price
-157
Open no-vig
56.1%
Close no-vig
58.4%
Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at CHC?
- The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
CHC vs NYY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 108 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.8± 2.6high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.2± 2.7low
- Ryan WeathersNYY5.6± 1.8high
Hits
- Nico HoernerCHC1.3± 1.4high
- Alex BregmanCHC1.2± 1.3high
- Seiya SuzukiCHC1.2± 0.8high
Total bases
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2.5± 2.8high
- Alex BregmanCHC2.1± 2.7high
- Nico HoernerCHC2.0± 2.5high
RBIs
- Seiya SuzukiCHC0.9± 0.9high
- Nico HoernerCHC0.8± 1.3high
- Tyrone TaylorCHC0.8± 1.3high
Earned runs
- David PetersonCHC2.9± 3.1high
- Colin ReaCHC2.7± 2.0high
- Aaron CivaleCHC2.6± 2.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYY
league avg
CHC
.722
OPS
.720
▶.754
.309
OBP
.318
▶.339
4.57
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.13
3.34
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.06
1.19
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.25
9.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.8
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
NYY wins
NYY 2 · CHC 0 (by 2)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked CHC +9pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
