Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at ARI?

The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 5, 2026

59-55

PregameWed, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

ARI

60-54

ATS/SD -1.5O/U/9ML/SD-123

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

8-2

SD +1.7 vs ARI -0.1 margin

SD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

47.7%

open 49.5% · -1.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Casey Mize

SP · #32

4-6

W-L

2.70

ERA

0.99

WHIP

86.2

Last 3 starts

vsKC-6.0 IP1 ER3 K

@LAA-3.1 IP1 ER5 K

vsPHIL(4-6)5.2 IP3 ER5 K

Home starter

Mitch Bratt

SP · #60

0-1

W-L

5.23

ERA

1.84

WHIP

20.2

Last 3 starts

@CLE-5.0 IP1 ER2 K

@WSHL(0-1)5.0 IP5 ER3 K

vsATH-4.2 IP2 ER4 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 9

Money-123 / +102

Model edge

Win prob46% / 54%

LeanHome · 4pp

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

-123Bet SD ML↗-123Bet SD ML↗

+102Bet ARI ML↗+102Bet ARI ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 9Bet the total↗O/U 9Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

ARI vs SD.

ARI is 5-5 recently; SD is 8-2.

53.6%

model · ARI win prob

Recent form

ARI5–5-0.1
SD8–2+1.7

Situational

ARI1d restB2B
SD1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. ARI has 0 straight road games; SD has 2.

Model angle

+6.3ppon ARI

ARI's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+4.5pp
▼Line steam-2.1pp
▲Venue split+1.8pp

Players to watch

Michael KingSD
4.7strikeouts · ±1.7
Michael King · 4.7 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 5.
Walker BuehlerSD
4.3strikeouts · ±2.2
Walker Buehler · 4.3 K · last-10 4.3 vs season 4.2.
Merrill KellyARI
3.9strikeouts · ±1.8
Merrill Kelly · 3.9 K · last-10 3.9 vs season 3.8.

Head-to-head · 3-3 · last 6

ARI is 3-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-07-07ARI @ SD1–4
2026-07-08ARI @ SD4–10
2026-07-09ARI @ SD3–1
2026-08-03SD @ ARI1–5
2026-08-04SD @ ARI9–4

Line move

open -107→+100toward SD

The market has moved 1.7pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
52.3%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.3%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like ARI.

ARI's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+6.3

pp edge · ARI

-2.15

CLV pp · steam

2.6u · large

on ARI

54.7%

±5.5pp band

2.57u large — +5.2pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+7.4pp

+1.1pp post-cal

Kelly

10.3%

2.6% sized

Decimal

2.02

+5.2pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 6.3pp · ARI over SD

▲
Model confidence90% conf
ARI clears the model's lock threshold.
+4.5pp
▼
Line steam71% conf
The market moved 1.7pp away from ARI since open.
-2.1pp
▲
Venue split66% conf
ARI's venue form is 12.5pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.8pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
SD is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
ARI has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp

Open price

-107

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

49.5%

Close no-vig

47.3%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at ARI?: The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.3pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

no live price

ARI

★ best

+102DraftKings

edge +6.3pp · implied 47.3%

Book	SD	ARI	Best edge
DraftKings	-123	+102★	+6.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ARI vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 112 high confidence

Strikeouts

Casey MizeSD
5.1± 2.4medium
Michael KingSD
4.7± 1.6high
Walker BuehlerSD
4.3± 2.2high

Hits

James McCannARI
1.6± 1.1high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.4± 1.1high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.6± 2.4high
Jackson MerrillSD
2.2± 1.9high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.4high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Mitch BrattARI
2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ARI

.696

OPS

.720

▶

.706

.312

OBP

.318

.314

4.23

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

4.15

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.20

1.32

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.30

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

The One modelTossup

Wed, Aug 5

Padres

68-67

vs53.6%ARI

ARI★

Diamondbacks

64-70

SD 46.4%win prob53.6% ARI

ARI 1503 · SD 1511Box score→

Team pages

San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

The matchup, end-to-end.

Pick a side.

ARI vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like ARI.

Where to bet this game.

ARI vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

Why we like ARI.