Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 31, 2026

FINAL+5BOS

BOS

58-51

LAD

69-41

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

47,903 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

51.7%

open 51.5% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
50.6%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.4%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.6%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.5pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

BOS

no live price

LAD

★ best

+111DraftKings

edge +7.5pp · implied 44.5%

Book	BOS	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	-144	+111★	+7.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAD vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.5± 2.8medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.7± 2.5high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.3high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
2.0± 2.7high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.2high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kris BubicLAD
2.6± 2.5low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium
Eric LauerLAD
2.4± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

LAD

.717

OPS

.720

▶

.769

.317

OBP

.318

▶

.339

4.36

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.07

3.52

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.71

1.23

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 9 · LAD 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	1	2	0	0	0	5	0	1	9
LAD	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Sogard3B	.273	4	2	1	0	0	2	1
C. RafaelaCF	.286	5	2	3	2	1	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.248	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
W. Contreras1B	.288	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.264	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.246	4	2	2	0	0	1	0
A. MonasterioSS	.258	5	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. DuranLF	.198	4	0	2	2	0	1	0
C. NarvaezC	.189	3	0	0	1	0	0	3
A. Seigler2B	.248	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JonesDH	.385	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	9	12	8	1	5	9

Player

.273

.286

.248

.288

.264

.246

.258

.198

.189

.248

.385

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SuarezSP	4.2	4	3	3	2	2	65
J. MoranRP	0.1	3	1	1	0	0	16
B. BelloSP	4.0	3	0	0	1	3	58
Team	9.0	10	4	4	3	5	139

Player

R. SuarezSP

4.2

J. MoranRP

0.1

B. BelloSP

4.0

Team

9.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.291	5	2	2	2	1	0	1
A. PagesCF	.269	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. Rojas2B	.276	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.305	4	0	3	1	0	0	0
M. BettsSS	.233	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. HernándezLF	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. TuckerRF	.236	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
E. Hernández1B	.556	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. AlfonzoC	.200	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.252	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		35	4	10	4	1	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. HenriquezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	21
W. KleinRP	1.1	3	3	1	1	3	39
C. IrvinRP	6.0	8	6	6	3	5	102
E. PhillipsRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	5
Team	9.0	12	9	7	5	9	167

Team

BOS

LAD

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

LAD vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.