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MLB·Model picks

Tonight's
model picks.

MLB pre-game win probability for every game on tonight's slate, computed from a rolling Elo rating that updates after every final. The MLB version of this model back-tested at 55% on 2,932 games. The methodology page has the receipts.

MLBTop 1
MIA 0@PHI 0
-2.7ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBMets: Reinstated RHP Kodai Senga from the 15-day IL (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBBrewers: Sent RHP Brandon Woodruff on a rehab assignment to Wisconsin (ML) (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Reinstated C Cal Raleigh and SS J.P (Jun 16)
MLBTop 1
MIA 0@PHI 0
-2.7ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBMets: Reinstated RHP Kodai Senga from the 15-day IL (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBBrewers: Sent RHP Brandon Woodruff on a rehab assignment to Wisconsin (ML) (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Reinstated C Cal Raleigh and SS J.P (Jun 16)

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 62-35
61%Last 30 · 299-189
Receipts →

Model accuracy · live

How tonight's model is grading

See receipts →

Last 7

56.0%

91 games

Last 30

58.1%

394 games

Season

58.2%

1078 games

All time

56.1%

3555 games

By confidence tier · all-time

★ Locks

70.6%

265g

+10.6

Edges

58.4%

906g

+3.4

Leans

54.5%

1048g

+2.5

Tossups

52.9%

1336g

+2.9

Tonight · 15 games

Sorted by model edge

Locks ★ first · then edges · then leans · tossups last

Show our work →
CHC

67%

Strong

Top edge tonight

★ Lock · Cubs ML

Conviction read · gauge spans 0–100%

Bet CHC ML↗Bet CHC ML↗

Direct to DraftKings or FanDuel · 21+

Edge
The One model★ Lock
Tue, Jun 16
COL

COL

Rockies

28-54

vs69.5%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

39-44

CHC
COL 30.5%win prob69.5% CHC
CHC 1480 · COL 1383Box score→
The One model★ Lock
Tue, Jun 16
SF

SF

Giants

38-42

vs65.3%ATL

ATL★

Braves

53-28

ATL
SF 34.7%win prob65.3% ATL
ATL 1565 · SF 1495Box score→
The One modelEdge
Tue, Jun 16
CLE

CLE

Guardians

44-40

vs64.2%MIL

MIL★

Brewers

48-27

MIL
CLE 35.8%win prob64.2% MIL
MIL 1581 · CLE 1517Box score→
The One modelEdge
Tue, Jun 16
CHW

CHW

White Sox

47-31

vs63.0%NYY

NYY★

Yankees

51-28

NYY
CHW 37.0%win prob63.0% NYY
NYY 1598 · CHW 1542Box score→
The One modelEdge
Tue, Jun 16
LAA

LAA

Angels

31-48

vs61.7%ARI

ARI★

Diamondbacks

39-40

ARI
LAA 38.3%win prob61.7% ARI
ARI 1489 · LAA 1440Box score→
The One modelEdge
Tue, Jun 16
BAL

BAL

Orioles

38-49

vs61.2%SEA

SEA★

Mariners

44-44

SEA
BAL 38.8%win prob61.2% SEA
SEA 1513 · BAL 1467Box score→
The One modelEdge
Tue, Jun 16
TB

TB

Rays

54-28

vs60.9%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

52-32

LAD
TB 39.1%win prob60.9% LAD
LAD 1589 · TB 1545Box score→
The One modelEdge
Tue, Jun 16
KC

KC

Royals

31-46

vs59.3%WSH

WSH★

Nationals

41-40

WSH
KC 40.7%win prob59.3% WSH
WSH 1494 · KC 1458Box score→
The One modelLean
Tue, Jun 16
MIN

MIN

Twins

42-43

vs57.5%TEX

TEX★

Rangers

38-40

TEX
MIN 42.5%win prob57.5% TEX
TEX 1495 · MIN 1470Box score→
The One modelLean
Tue, Jun 16
SD

SD

Padres

38-35

vs56.7%STL

STL★

Cardinals

42-32

STL
SD 43.3%win prob56.7% STL
STL 1521 · SD 1501Box score→
The One modelLean
Tue, Jun 16
MIA

MIA

Marlins

44-39

vs55.9%PHI

PHI★

Phillies

47-40

PHI
MIA 44.1%win prob55.9% PHI
PHI 1540 · MIA 1524Box score→
The One modelLean
Tue, Jun 16
DET

DET

Tigers

33-44

vs55.1%HOU

HOU★

Astros

38-46

HOU
DET 44.9%win prob55.1% HOU
HOU 1485 · DET 1474Box score→
The One modelLean
Tue, Jun 16
TOR

TOR

Blue Jays

33-51

vs54.7%BOS

BOS★

Red Sox

29-50

BOS
TOR 45.3%win prob54.7% BOS
BOS 1469 · TOR 1459Box score→
The One modelLean
Tue, Jun 16
PIT

PIT

Pirates

36-42

vs54.3%ATH

ATH★

Athletics

36-43

ATH
PIT 45.7%win prob54.3% ATH
ATH 1475 · PIT 1468Box score→
The One modelTossup
Tue, Jun 16
NYM

NYM

Mets

35-43

vs52.1%CIN

CIN★

Reds

40-41

CIN
NYM 47.9%win prob52.1% CIN
CIN 1476 · NYM 1481Box score→

Power ratings · Elo

Best + worst teams in mlb

Top 5

  1. 1NYY

    Yankees

    51-28

    1598Elo
  2. 2LAD

    Dodgers

    52-32

    1589Elo
  3. 3MIL

    Brewers

    48-27

    1581Elo
  4. 4ATL

    Braves

    53-28

    1565Elo
  5. 5TB

    Rays

    54-28

    1545Elo

Bottom 5

  1. 1COL

    Rockies

    28-54

    1383Elo
  2. 2LAA

    Angels

    31-48

    1440Elo
  3. 3KC

    Royals

    31-46

    1458Elo
  4. 4TOR

    Blue Jays

    33-51

    1459Elo
  5. 5BAL

    Orioles

    38-49

    1467Elo

How the model works

One Elo rating per team, updated after every game

K-factor 8 with a margin-of-victory bump capped at 1.5×. Home advantage is +24 rating points. Off-season carry regresses 25% to the league mean. No starting-pitcher adjustment, no park factor — yet. The plain rating still beats every consumer-site Elo we've checked at 55% raw hit rate.

Full methodology →