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MLB·Model picks

Tonight's
model picks.

MLB pre-game win probability for every game on tonight's slate, computed from a rolling Elo rating that updates after every final. The MLB version of this model back-tested at 55% on 2,932 games. The methodology page has the receipts.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 57-38
60%Last 30 · 249-167
Receipts →
WNBAHalftime
LV 40@CHI 37
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 26 PTS · 10 REB · 10 AST in a win over POR
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Warren (NYY): 6.2 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Austin (WSH): 28 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST in a win over DAL
TRANSACTION · MLBAstros: Signed free agent SS Braden Shewmake to a minor league contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)
WNBAHalftime
LV 40@CHI 37
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 26 PTS · 10 REB · 10 AST in a win over POR
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Warren (NYY): 6.2 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · WNBAS. Austin (WSH): 28 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST in a win over DAL
TRANSACTION · MLBAstros: Signed free agent SS Braden Shewmake to a minor league contract (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Placed SS J.P (Jul 31)
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Selected the contract of RHP Luke Murphy from Rocket City (SL) (Jul 31)

Model accuracy · live

How tonight's model is grading

See receipts →

Last 7

56.7%

97 games

Last 30

58.5%

357 games

Season

58.6%

1652 games

All time

56.6%

4129 games

By confidence tier · all-time

★ Locks

69.7%

337g

+9.7

Edges

59.5%

1111g

+4.5

Leans

54.5%

1178g

+2.5

Tossups

53.0%

1503g

+3.0

Tonight · 15 games

Sorted by model edge

Locks ★ first · then edges · then leans · tossups last

Show our work →
MIL

64%

Edge

Top edge tonight

★ Lock · Brewers ML

Conviction read · gauge spans 0–100%

Bet MIL ML↗Bet MIL ML↗

Direct to DraftKings or FanDuel · 21+

Edge
The One model★ Lock
Sat, Aug 1
MIL

MIL★

Brewers

72-55

vs73.2%MIL

LAA

Angels

50-83

LAA
MIL 73.2%win prob26.8% LAA
MIL 1531 · LAA 1405Box score→
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 1
CHW

CHW

White Sox

74-58

vs61.5%TB

TB★

Rays

92-45

TB
CHW 38.5%win prob61.5% TB
TB 1583 · CHW 1527Box score→
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 1
KC

KC★

Royals

58-73

vs60.5%KC

COL

Rockies

49-81

COL
KC 60.5%win prob39.5% COL
KC 1482 · COL 1415Box score→
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 1
DET

DET★

Tigers

55-73

vs59.8%DET

ATH

Athletics

54-79

ATH
DET 59.8%win prob40.2% ATH
DET 1478 · ATH 1415Box score→
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 1
ARI

ARI

Diamondbacks

62-68

vs59.6%CLE

CLE★

Guardians

76-61

CLE
ARI 40.4%win prob59.6% CLE
CLE 1544 · ARI 1502Box score→
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 1
WSH

WSH

Nationals

66-63

vs59.6%ATL

ATL★

Braves

79-56

ATL
WSH 40.4%win prob59.6% ATL
ATL 1533 · WSH 1491Box score→
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 1
STL

STL★

Cardinals

66-61

vs59.1%STL

TOR

Blue Jays

55-88

TOR
STL 59.1%win prob40.9% TOR
STL 1488 · TOR 1428Box score→
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 1
TEX

TEX

Rangers

71-64

vs58.9%HOU

HOU★

Astros

74-64

HOU
TEX 41.1%win prob58.9% HOU
HOU 1544 · TEX 1508Box score→
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 1
MIN

MIN★

Twins

78-61

vs58.8%MIN

SEA

Mariners

64-74

SEA
MIN 58.8%win prob41.2% SEA
MIN 1536 · SEA 1477Box score→
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 1
SF

SF

Giants

66-74

vs58.4%SD

SD★

Padres

65-66

SD
SF 41.6%win prob58.4% SD
SD 1503 · SF 1471Box score→
The One modelLean
Sat, Aug 1
NYY

NYY

Yankees

73-60

vs57.9%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

75-59

CHC
NYY 42.1%win prob57.9% CHC
CHC 1560 · NYY 1531Box score→
The One modelLean
Sat, Aug 1
PHI

PHI★

Phillies

75-67

vs55.3%PHI

BAL

Orioles

58-78

BAL
PHI 55.3%win prob44.7% BAL
PHI 1511 · BAL 1466Box score→
The One modelLean
Sat, Aug 1
BOS

BOS

Red Sox

68-65

vs54.7%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

84-55

LAD
BOS 45.3%win prob54.7% LAD
LAD 1571 · BOS 1568Box score→
The One modelTossup
Sat, Aug 1
MIA

MIA★

Marlins

67-65

vs53.5%MIA

NYM

Mets

57-76

NYM
MIA 53.5%win prob46.5% NYM
MIA 1503 · NYM 1467Box score→
The One modelTossup
Sat, Aug 1
PIT

PIT★

Pirates

60-64

vs51.7%PIT

CIN

Reds

61-69

CIN
PIT 51.7%win prob48.3% CIN
PIT 1493 · CIN 1464Box score→

Power ratings · Elo

Best + worst teams in mlb

Top 5

  1. 1TB

    Rays

    92-45

    1583Elo
  2. 2LAD

    Dodgers

    84-55

    1571Elo
  3. 3BOS

    Red Sox

    68-65

    1568Elo
  4. 4CHC

    Cubs

    75-59

    1560Elo
  5. 5HOU

    Astros

    74-64

    1544Elo

Bottom 5

  1. 1LAA

    Angels

    50-83

    1405Elo
  2. 2ATH

    Athletics

    54-79

    1415Elo
  3. 3COL

    Rockies

    49-81

    1415Elo
  4. 4TOR

    Blue Jays

    55-88

    1428Elo
  5. 5CIN

    Reds

    61-69

    1464Elo

How the model works

One Elo rating per team, updated after every game

K-factor 8 with a margin-of-victory bump capped at 1.5×. Home advantage is +24 rating points. Off-season carry regresses 25% to the league mean. No starting-pitcher adjustment, no park factor — yet. The plain rating still beats every consumer-site Elo we've checked at 55% raw hit rate.

Full methodology →