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CHW#3 · American League

Chicago White Sox

38-34 (52.8%) · L2 · L10 5-5

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#11 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .496 · exp 35.7-36.3 vs act 38-34 · n=72 · luck +2.3W · thru 2026-06-17 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-12 → 2026-06-17 · Full ATS profile →

Model picks on CHW

24-15 graded · 61.5% (95% CI 45.9-75.1) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-04-06

All MLB · 605-483 graded

Tonight's graded board →

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

1Munetaka Murakami57 G.938
2Miguel Vargas71 G.849
3Colson Montgomery69 G.821
4Chase Meidroth70 G.746
5Andrew Benintendi65 G.720

Home runs

1Munetaka Murakami57 G20
2Colson Montgomery69 G19
3Miguel Vargas71 G16
4Andrew Benintendi65 G8
5Chase Meidroth70 G6

RBI

1Miguel Vargas71 G44
2Colson Montgomery69 G44
3Munetaka Murakami57 G41
4Andrew Benintendi65 G33
5Chase Meidroth70 G25

Batting average

1Chase Meidroth70 G.278
2Miguel Vargas71 G.244
3Munetaka Murakami57 G.240
4Andrew Benintendi65 G.238
5Colson Montgomery69 G.225

Stolen bases

1Miguel Vargas71 G10
2Chase Meidroth70 G2
3Munetaka Murakami57 G1
4Andrew Benintendi65 G1
5Colson Montgomery69 G1

ERA

1Davis Martin81.7 IP3.31
2Sean Burke73.7 IP4.15

WHIP

1Davis Martin81.7 IP1.19
2Sean Burke73.7 IP1.26

Strikeouts

1Davis Martin81.7 IP83
2Sean Burke73.7 IP73

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.240vs .243League avg

OBP

.323vs .319League avg

SLG

.413vs .398Slight edge

OPS

.736vs .718Slight edge

100

R / G

4.7

K / G

9.1

Pitching

ERA

4.47vs 4.18Below avg

FIP (approx)

4.50vs 4.19Below avg

WHIP

1.34vs 1.31Slight gap

K / 9

8.3vs 8.5Slight gap

BB / 9

3.9vs 3.5Below avg

BAA

.241

HR / 9

1.2

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

ForAgainst

4.8 avg / 5.5 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Avg runs / game

5.23

Blowout wins (4+)

Shutout games

Form last 30

17-13

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 5.2 runs

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

161 games · 2025-06-19 → 2026-06-17

Peak 1542 · Now 1534 · Trough 1421

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

4 moves

Jun 12
Acquired RHP Gabe Tanner from the Oakland Ballers (Pioneer League).
Jun 11
Acquired CF Dylan Campbell and 2B Jose Colmenares from Philadelphia in exchange for RF Derek Hill and other considerations. Reinstated RF Everson Pereira from the 10-day IL.
Jun 10
Placed LHP Tyler Gilbert on the 15-day IL. Recalled LHP Chris Murphy from Charlotte (IL).
Jun 9
Placed LF Austin Hays on the 60-day IL. Optioned RF Rikuu Nishida and RHP David Sandlin to Charlotte (IL). Recalled LHP Joe Rock from Charlotte. Selected the contract of OF Braden Montgomery from Charlotte.

Source · ESPN