Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at NYM?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 27, 2026

FINAL+11NYM

ATL

62-44

314

NYM

45-62

Citi Field · Queens, New York

29,466 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

NYM no-vig %

48.9%

open 50.0% · -1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
45.2%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.6%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.6%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.52

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-110

Close price

-117

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

51.5%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at NYM?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+31.8pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

ATL

★ best

+257DraftKings

edge +31.8pp · implied 26.3%

NYM

no live price

Book	ATL	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	+257★	-363	+31.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6medium

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.1high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.9high
Matt OlsonATL
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.3± 2.2high
Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high
Austin RileyATL
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Tyler MahleATL
3.0± 2.4medium
Kodai SengaNYM
2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

NYM

.733

OPS

◀

.720

.684

.315

OBP

◀

.318

.303

4.89

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

3.66

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.09

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.29

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

ATL 3 · NYM 14 (by 11)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	3
NYM	1	0	2	0	0	2	4	5	14

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.251	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
D. BaldwinC	.276	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Olson1B	.264	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
O. Albies2B	.262	4	1	2	3	1	0	0
M. Harris IICF	.298	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. DubonLF	.260	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.216	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BartC	.186	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. JarvisSS	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. WhiteRF	.219	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	6	3	1	1	9

Player

.251

.276

.264

.262

.298

.260

.216

.186

.250

.219

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. PerezSP	5.0	8	3	3	1	4	87
C. ThomasRP	2.2	10	11	11	5	2	78
J. MateoSS	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	10
Team	8.0	19	14	14	6	7	175

Player

M. PerezSP

5.0

C. ThomasRP

2.2

J. MateoSS

0.1

Team

8.0

175

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A.J. EwingCF	.271	5	2	3	1	0	0	2
F. LindorSS	.233	5	2	3	6	2	1	0
B. Bichette3B	.261	5	0	3	1	0	0	0
L. Robert Jr.CF	.208	6	0	1	0	0	0	3
F. AlvarezC	.262	2	1	1	0	0	3	0
J. Young1B	.250	5	2	1	0	0	0	1
T. TaylorLF	.250	5	3	3	3	1	0	1
M. Semien2B	.214	4	3	3	2	1	1	0
L. TorrensC	.223	4	1	1	1	0	1	0
Team		41	14	19	14	4	6	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. ThorntonSP	6.1	6	3	3	1	5	81
H. BrazobanRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	13
D. DuarteRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	24
Team	9.0	6	3	3	1	9	118

Team

ATL

NYM

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.