Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 4, 2026

FINAL+2MIL

PIT

57-58

MIL

70-43

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

30,014 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

MIL no-vig %

59.8%

open 60.0% · -0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
59.3%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.9%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.5%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.9pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

PIT

★ best

+163DraftKings

edge +2.9pp · implied 36.8%

MIL

no live price

Book	PIT	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	+163★	-189	+2.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

131

projections · 115 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Paul SkenesPIT
7.1± 2.1high
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.2± 4.5medium

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 1.0high
Brandon LowePIT
1.2± 1.1high
Jake BauersMIL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.1± 2.1high
Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Luis LaraMIL
0.8± 1.3high
Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high
Jake BauersMIL
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

MIL

.746

OPS

◀

.719

.733

.333

OBP

.318

.336

5.05

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.96

4.30

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.45

1.33

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.16

9.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

PIT 2 · MIL 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
MIL	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.302	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. Lowe2B	.257	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. ValdezRF	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
S. Horwitz1B	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Gonzales3B	.306	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. RodriguezC	.268	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
J. GonzalezSS	.222	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.242	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	5	2	2	2	11

Player

.302

.257

.268

.253

.271

.306

.268

.222

.242

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JonesSP	4.0	8	3	3	1	4	83
W. DotelRP	2.0	3	1	1	1	3	33
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
K. YatesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	8.0	11	4	4	2	8	139

Player

4.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Turang2B	.268	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. ChourioLF	.280	4	1	3	2	1	0	0
G. MitchellCF	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
W. ContrerasC	.270	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. YelichDH	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Vaughn1B	.299	3	1	1	1	1	1	2
L. LaraRF	.245	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
C. PrattSS	.293	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
D. Hamilton3B	.238	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		35	4	11	4	2	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HendersonSP	6.0	4	2	2	1	8	83
A. SenzatelaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
A. UribeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	17
T. MegillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	5	2	2	2	11	126

Team

PIT

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

MIL vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIL vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.