San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 26, 2026

FINAL+2SD

53-53

MIA

52-54

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

21,675 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

54.0%

open 54.2% · -0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
53.4%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.1%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.2%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+46.1pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

★ best

—DraftKings

edge +46.1pp · implied 0.0%

MIA

no live price

Book	SD	MIA	Best edge
DraftKings	—★	-158	+46.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.4± 1.9high
Michael KingSD
4.7± 1.6high

Hits

Ty FranceSD
1.3± 1.0high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.2± 1.1high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Jackson MerrillSD
2.0± 2.1high
Joe MackMIA
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Jackson MerrillSD
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
Griffin CanningSD
2.7± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

MIA

.694

OPS

.720

▶

.732

.311

OBP

.318

▶

.325

4.19

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.39

4.15

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.00

1.33

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.24

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 5 · MIA 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	5
MIA	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

San Diego PadresMiami Marlins

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.277	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Cronenworth2B	.217	5	2	3	0	0	0	1
M. Machado3B	.210	5	1	2	3	1	0	0
T. France1B	.286	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. MerrillCF	.231	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
L. Rengifo3B	.433	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.214	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. CampusanoC	.276	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
S. Song2B	.212	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BowenRF	.148	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. DuranC	.146	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	5	13	5	2	0	8

Player

.277

.217

.210

.286

.231

.433

.214

.276

.212

.148

.146

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BuehlerSP	5.1	4	3	2	2	7	92
Y. MatsuiRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	16
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12
A. MorejonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
M. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	5	3	2	3	10	144

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.328	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Stowers1B	.234	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. Edwards2B	.289	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. HicksC	.277	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
G. ConineRF	.260	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
E. RuizRF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Pauley3B	.179	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. MackC	.239	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Jimenez3B	.210	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MarseeCF	.195	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.268	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	5	2	1	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JunkSP	4.2	7	1	1	0	6	75
M. PetersenRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. GibsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	7
T. ZuberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
L. BacharRP	1.0	5	4	4	0	0	23
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	13	5	5	0	8	130

Team

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

MIA vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.