Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 22, 2026

FINAL+4BAL

BAL

50-53

BOS

52-49

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

38,005 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

BOS no-vig %

56.8%

open 59.1% · -2.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
66.6%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.5%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
67.6%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.79

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-162

Close price

-150

Open no-vig

59.1%

Close no-vig

57.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+47.9pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

BAL

no live price

BOS

★ best

+421DraftKings

edge +47.9pp · implied 18.0%

Book	BAL	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	-680	+421★	+47.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium
Sonny GrayBOS
5.4± 2.8high

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Jackson HollidayBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.0± 1.4low

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.9± 2.5high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
2.1± 3.5low
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.1± 1.9low
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle BradishBAL
2.5± 1.9high
Brayan BelloBOS
2.5± 3.5medium
Shane BazBAL
2.3± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

BOS

.711

OPS

.720

.712

.320

OBP

◀

.318

.316

4.53

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.27

4.26

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.53

1.35

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.23

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 5 · BOS 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5
BOS	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.251	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. Alonso1B	.247	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
G. HendersonSS	.225	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
T. O'NeillRF	.210	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Encarnacion-Strand3B	.375	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. BeaversRF	.248	4	1	2	2	0	0	0
J. RodriguezRF	.182	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
J. Holliday2B	.216	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
C. TrompC	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CowserCF	.207	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
Team		34	5	9	3	0	4	8

Player

.251

.247

.225

.210

C. Encarnacion-Strand3B

.375

.248

.182

.216

.250

.207

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BradishSP	6.0	4	1	1	1	4	89
Y. CanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
A. KittredgeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
T. WellsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	5	1	1	1	5	119

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

119

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Seigler2B	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. Contreras1B	.293	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. YoshidaDH	.268	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.237	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. DuranLF	.190	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.247	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.198	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. JonesDH	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. WongC	.270	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	5	1	0	1	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. RiveraSP	0.2	3	4	4	2	1	41
B. BelloSP	5.1	4	0	0	1	5	85
J. MoranRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	23
R. WatsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14
A. GamboaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	9	5	5	4	8	177

Team

BAL

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BOS vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.