Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 31, 2026

FINAL+5CHW

CHW

58-51

64-45

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

20,661 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TB no-vig %

57.2%

open 56.6% · +0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
60.7%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.8%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.9%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.86

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-145

Close price

-157

Open no-vig

56.6%

Close no-vig

58.4%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+43.5pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

CHW

no live price

★ best

+418DraftKings

edge +43.5pp · implied 18.1%

Book	CHW	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	-680	+418★	+43.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 124 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.1± 2.4high
Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high
Griffin JaxTB
5.2± 2.3high

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.3± 1.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 1.1high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.3± 2.7high
Junior CamineroTB
2.3± 2.7high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Junior CamineroTB
0.7± 0.9high
Miguel VargasCHW
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Freddy PeraltaTB
3.7± 3.4high
Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
3.1± 3.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

.719

OPS

.719

▶

.732

.315

OBP

.318

▶

.329

4.72

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.47

4.08

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.74

1.30

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 6 · TB 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	1	1	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	6
TB	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.282	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Murakami1B	.244	4	2	2	2	1	0	0
M. Vargas3B	.240	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
C. MontgomerySS	.217	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
A. BenintendiDH	.247	3	1	2	1	1	1	0
B. MontgomeryRF	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. PetersCF	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Meidroth2B	.272	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. RomoC	.138	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	6	8	6	4	2	2

Player

.282

.244

.240

.217

.247

.237

.268

.272

.138

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. FeddeSP	5.0	4	1	1	0	6	91
T. SchweitzerRP	3.0	1	0	0	2	2	43
T. RichardsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	9	148

Player

E. FeddeSP

5.0

T. SchweitzerRP

3.0

T. RichardsRP

1.0

Team

9.0

148

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.302	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Aranda1B	.281	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.282	2	1	1	1	1	2	1
C. MullinsCF	.203	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.290	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.217	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.234	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.256	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	1	5	1	1	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	6.0	7	6	6	0	2	77
A. CookRP	2.0	1	0	0	2	0	38
C. RoycroftRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	8	6	6	2	2	125

Team

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TB vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TB vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.