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CHC#4 · National League

Chicago Cubs

65-49 (57.0%) · W2 · L10 6-4

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#4 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .583 · exp 66.5-47.5 vs act 65-49 · n=114 · luck -1.5W · thru 2026-08-04 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-07-31 → 2026-08-04 · Full ATS profile →

Model picks on CHC

23-14 graded · 62.2% (95% CI 46.1-75.9) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-26

All MLB · 698-590 graded

Tonight's graded board →

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

1Pete Crow-Armstrong114 G.919
2Seiya Suzuki97 G.850
3Michael Busch113 G.745
4Ian Happ110 G.741
5Alex Bregman111 G.717

Home runs

RBI

Batting average

1Pete Crow-Armstrong114 G.284
2Seiya Suzuki97 G.274
3Nico Hoerner112 G.258
4Alex Bregman111 G.246
5Michael Busch113 G.241

Stolen bases

ERA

1Shota Imanaga127.7 IP3.67
2Colin Rea117.7 IP4.59

WHIP

1Shota Imanaga127.7 IP1.07
2Colin Rea117.7 IP1.36

Strikeouts

1Shota Imanaga127.7 IP119
2Colin Rea117.7 IP90

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.248vs .244Slight edge

OBP

.339vs .318Above avg

SLG

.415vs .401Slight edge

OPS

.754vs .720Slight edge

141

R / G

5.1

K / G

8.6

Pitching

ERA

4.06vs 4.18Slight edge

FIP (approx)

4.65vs 4.19Below avg

WHIP

1.25vs 1.30Slight edge

K / 9

7.8vs 8.5Below avg

BB / 9

3.0vs 3.4Above avg

BAA

.243

HR / 9

1.5

114

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

ForAgainst

4.9 avg / 2.3 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Avg runs / game

5.73

Blowout wins (4+)

Shutout games

Form last 30

19-11

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 5.7 runs

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

173 games · 2025-08-05 → 2026-08-04

Peak 1578 · Now 1568 · Trough 1470

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

4 moves

Jun 12
Reinstated RHP Trent Thornton from the paternity list. Optioned RHP Tyler Ferguson to Iowa (IL).
Jun 9
Reinstated RF Matt Shaw from the 10-day IL. Placed RHP Jameson Taillon on the 15-day IL retroactive to June 8. Recalled RHPs Tyler Ferguson and Ethan Roberts from Iowa (IL). Optioned OF Kevin Alcántara to Iowa. Placed RHP Trent Thornton on the paternity list.
Jun 8
Claimed RHP Eduarniel Núñez off waivers from Baltimore. Selected the contract of LHP Antoine Kelly from Iowa (IK).
Jun 7
Acquired LHP Antoine Kelly from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Source · ESPN