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MLBTop 1
MIA 0@PHI 0
-2.7ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBMets: Reinstated RHP Kodai Senga from the 15-day IL (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBBrewers: Sent RHP Brandon Woodruff on a rehab assignment to Wisconsin (ML) (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Reinstated C Cal Raleigh and SS J.P (Jun 16)
MLBTop 1
MIA 0@PHI 0
-2.7ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBMets: Reinstated RHP Kodai Senga from the 15-day IL (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBBrewers: Sent RHP Brandon Woodruff on a rehab assignment to Wisconsin (ML) (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Reinstated C Cal Raleigh and SS J.P (Jun 16)
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Chicago Cubs
CHC#8 · National League

Chicago Cubs

38-35 (52.1%) · W1 · L10 5-5

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#9 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .514 · exp 37.5-35.5 vs act 38-35 · n=73 · luck +0.5W · thru 2026-06-15 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-11 → 2026-06-15 · Full ATS profile →

WWon by 6 at COL, 9-3, 2026-06-11. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 4 at SF, 5-1, 2026-06-12. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 5 at SF, 6-1, 2026-06-13. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 4 at SF, 1-5, 2026-06-14. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 1 vs COL, 5-4, 2026-06-15. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong73 G.844
  2. 2Ian Happ69 G.800
  3. 3Michael Busch72 G.790
  4. 4Seiya Suzuki58 G.767
  5. 5Alex Bregman72 G.696

Home runs

  1. 1Ian Happ69 G16
  2. 2Pete Crow-Armstrong73 G13
  3. 3Seiya Suzuki58 G10
  4. 4Michael Busch72 G8
  5. 5Dansby Swanson69 G7

RBI

  1. 1Michael Busch72 G42
  2. 2Ian Happ69 G37
  3. 3Pete Crow-Armstrong73 G35
  4. 4Nico Hoerner71 G34
  5. 5Seiya Suzuki58 G28

Batting average

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong73 G.277
  2. 2Alex Bregman72 G.253
  3. 3Seiya Suzuki58 G.251
  4. 4Michael Busch72 G.251
  5. 5Nico Hoerner71 G.237

Stolen bases

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong73 G16
  2. 2Nico Hoerner71 G12
  3. 3Dansby Swanson69 G6
  4. 4Ian Happ69 G4
  5. 5Alex Bregman72 G2

ERA

  1. 1Shota Imanaga86.7 IP4.26
  2. 2Colin Rea74.0 IP5.35

WHIP

  1. 1Shota Imanaga86.7 IP1.06
  2. 2Colin Rea74.0 IP1.46

Strikeouts

  1. 1Shota Imanaga86.7 IP84
  2. 2Colin Rea74.0 IP56

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.239vs .243Slight gap

OBP

.332vs .319Slight edge

SLG

.394vs .398League avg

OPS

.726vs .717League avg

HR

84

R / G

4.6

K / G

8.4

Pitching

ERA

4.23vs 4.18League avg

FIP (approx)

4.57vs 4.18Below avg

WHIP

1.25vs 1.31Slight edge

K / 9

8.0vs 8.5Below avg

BB / 9

3.1vs 3.5Above avg

BAA

.241

HR / 9

1.5

GP

73

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.30.50.81.01st · 0.17 for / 0.50 against · margin -0.331st2nd · 0.08 for / 0.33 against · margin -0.252nd3rd · 0.50 for / 0.33 against · margin +0.173rd4th · 0.75 for / 0.67 against · margin +0.084th5th · 0.58 for / 0.33 against · margin +0.25PEAK5th6th · 0.50 for / 1.00 against · margin -0.506th7th · 0.33 for / 0.25 against · margin +0.087th8th · 0.42 for / 0.67 against · margin -0.258th9th · 0.67 for / 0.50 against · margin +0.179thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

4.0 avg / 4.6 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

3.87

Blowout wins (4+)

7

Shutout games

2

Form last 30

11-19

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 3.9 runs

2356AVG 3.9061425344567891011RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-05-14 → 2026-06-15

Record

11-19

Win pct

36.7%

Avg margin

-1.0

Longest W

3

Longest L

10

Upset wins

6

Favorite losses

10

2026-05-14 · @ ATL · W 2-0 · model gave 41%ATL2026-05-15 · @ CHW · W 10-5 · model gave 51%CHW2026-05-16 · @ CHW · L 3-8 · model gave 52%CHW2026-05-17 · @ CHW · L 8-9 · model gave 51%CHW2026-05-18 · vs MIL · L 3-9 · model gave 44%MIL2026-05-19 · vs MIL · L 2-5 · model gave 41%MIL2026-05-20 · vs MIL · L 0-5 · model gave 40%MIL2026-05-22 · vs HOU · L 2-4 · model gave 55%HOU2026-05-23 · vs HOU · L 0-3 · model gave 55%HOU2026-05-24 · vs HOU · L 5-8 · model gave 54%HOU2026-05-25 · @ PIT · L 1-2 · model gave 49%PIT2026-05-26 · @ PIT · L 1-12 · model gave 49%PIT2026-05-27 · @ PIT · W 10-4 · model gave 49%PIT2026-05-28 · @ PIT · W 7-2 · model gave 48%PIT2026-05-29 · @ STL · L 5-6 · model gave 45%STL2026-05-30 · @ STL · W 6-1 · model gave 46%STL2026-05-31 · @ STL · L 1-5 · model gave 45%STL2026-06-02 · vs ATH · L 1-2 · model gave 57%ATH2026-06-03 · vs ATH · L 4-5 · model gave 59%ATH2026-06-04 · vs ATH · W 7-6 · model gave 58%ATH2026-06-05 · vs SF · L 3-18 · model gave 50%SF2026-06-06 · vs SF · W 3-2 · model gave 50%SF2026-06-07 · vs SF · L 1-2 · model gave 49%SF2026-06-09 · @ COL · L 3-7 · model gave 59%COL2026-06-10 · @ COL · L 2-3 · model gave 60%COL2026-06-11 · @ COL · W 9-3 · model gave 60%COL2026-06-12 · @ SF · W 5-1 · model gave 44%SF2026-06-13 · @ SF · W 6-1 · model gave 44%SF2026-06-14 · @ SF · L 1-5 · model gave 44%SF2026-06-15 · vs COL · W 5-4 · model gave 67%COL

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

171 games · 2025-06-18 → 2026-06-15

Peak 1578 · Now 1480 · Trough 1470

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

4 moves
  1. Jun 12

    Reinstated RHP Trent Thornton from the paternity list. Optioned RHP Tyler Ferguson to Iowa (IL).

  2. Jun 9

    Reinstated RF Matt Shaw from the 10-day IL. Placed RHP Jameson Taillon on the 15-day IL retroactive to June 8. Recalled RHPs Tyler Ferguson and Ethan Roberts from Iowa (IL). Optioned OF Kevin Alcántara to Iowa. Placed RHP Trent Thornton on the paternity list.

  3. Jun 8

    Claimed RHP Eduarniel Núñez off waivers from Baltimore. Selected the contract of LHP Antoine Kelly from Iowa (IK).

  4. Jun 7

    Acquired LHP Antoine Kelly from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Alex Bregman

A. Bregman

3B · #3

Ben Brown

B. Brown

RP · #32

Caleb Thielbar

C. Thielbar

RP · #24

Carson Kelly

C. Kelly

C · #15

Colin Rea

C. Rea

SP · #53

Dansby Swanson

D. Swanson

SS · #7

Edward Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP · #30

Ethan Roberts

E. Roberts

RP · #39

Gavin Hollowell

G. Hollowell

RP · #46

Hoby Milner

H. Milner

RP · #41

Ian Happ

I. Happ

LF · #8

Jacob Webb

J. Webb

RP · #71

Javier Assad

J. Assad

SP · #72

Matt Shaw

M. Shaw

RF · #6

Michael Busch

M. Busch

1B · #29

Michael Conforto

M. Conforto

DH · #20

Miguel Amaya

M. Amaya

C · #9

Moises Ballesteros

M. Ballesteros

DH · #25

Nico Hoerner

N. Hoerner

2B · #2

Pedro Ramirez

P. Ramirez

2B · #75

Pete Crow-Armstrong

P. Crow-Armstrong

CF · #4

Phil Maton

P. Maton

RP · #88

Ryan Rolison

R. Rolison

RP · #33

Seiya Suzuki

S. Suzuki

RF · #27

Shota Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP · #18

Trent Thornton

T. Thornton

RP · #49

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 62-35
61%Last 30 · 299-189
Receipts →

Model picks on CHC

22-11 graded · 66.7% (95% CI 49.6-80.2) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-26

All MLB · 594-464 graded

Tonight's graded board →