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CHC#6 · National League
Chicago Cubs
40-36 (52.6%) · W2 · L10 6-4
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)
#5 of 30
Pyth(1.83) .530 · exp 40.3-35.7 vs act 40-36 · n=76 · luck -0.3W · thru 2026-06-19 · mlb_game_results
Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Last 5 form
2026-06-14 → 2026-06-19 · Full ATS profile →
Lost by 4 at SF, 1-5, 2026-06-14. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Won by 1 vs COL, 5-4, 2026-06-15. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Lost by 3 vs COL, 2-5, 2026-06-16. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
Won by 2 vs COL, 8-6, 2026-06-17. Covered the spread (closing line).
Won by 14 vs TOR, 16-2, 2026-06-19. Covered the spread (closing line).
Stat leaders
Who carries them
OPS
- 1Pete Crow-Armstrong76 G.869
- 2Ian Happ72 G.807
- 3Seiya Suzuki61 G.805
- 4Michael Busch75 G.776
- 5Alex Bregman75 G.693
Home runs
- 1Ian Happ72 G16
- 2Pete Crow-Armstrong76 G15
- 3Seiya Suzuki61 G10
- 4Michael Busch75 G8
- 5Dansby Swanson72 G8
RBI
- 1Michael Busch75 G42
- 2Pete Crow-Armstrong76 G38
- 3Ian Happ72 G37
- 4Nico Hoerner74 G34
- 5Seiya Suzuki61 G31
Batting average
- 1Pete Crow-Armstrong76 G.283
- 2Seiya Suzuki61 G.269
- 3Alex Bregman75 G.250
- 4Michael Busch75 G.247
- 5Nico Hoerner74 G.238
Stolen bases
- 1Pete Crow-Armstrong76 G18
- 2Nico Hoerner74 G12
- 3Dansby Swanson72 G9
- 4Ian Happ72 G4
- 5Alex Bregman75 G2
ERA
- 1Shota Imanaga86.7 IP4.26
WHIP
- 1Shota Imanaga86.7 IP1.06
Strikeouts
- 1Shota Imanaga86.7 IP84
2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool
Team rate stats · 2026
Hitting + pitching vs league
MLB Stats API
Hitting
AVG
.243vs .243League avg
OBP
.336vs .319Above avg
SLG
.401vs .400League avg
OPS
.737vs .719Slight edge
HR
88
R / G
4.7
K / G
8.3
Pitching
ERA
4.23vs 4.19League avg
FIP (approx)
4.61vs 4.20Below avg
WHIP
1.24vs 1.31Above avg
K / 9
8.0vs 8.5Below avg
BB / 9
3.1vs 3.5Above avg
BAA
.239
HR / 9
1.5
GP
76
Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.
Inning identity
When they score
Pattern by inning
12 games · for vs against
ForAgainst
5.0 avg / 3.3 allowed
Plate signature
The strike zone
Plate identity
From the catcher's view · last 30 games
Avg runs / game
4.23
Blowout wins (4+)
7
Shutout games
2
Form last 30
11-19
Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.
Run-scoring identity
How they score
Scoring distribution
30 games · avg 4.2 runs
Form heatmap
The margin trail
Margin trail
Last 30 games · 2026-05-17 → 2026-06-19
Record
11-19
Win pct
36.7%
Avg margin
-0.7
Longest W
3
Longest L
9
Upset wins
5
Favorite losses
10
Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.
Model rating arc
The Elo timeline
172 games · 2025-06-20 → 2026-06-19
Peak 1578 · Now 1488 · Trough 1470
Next 5 games
The road ahead
vsTORpwr 54
vsTORpwr 54
@NYMpwr —
@NYMpwr —
@NYMpwr —
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 12
Reinstated RHP Trent Thornton from the paternity list. Optioned RHP Tyler Ferguson to Iowa (IL).
- Jun 9
Reinstated RF Matt Shaw from the 10-day IL. Placed RHP Jameson Taillon on the 15-day IL retroactive to June 8. Recalled RHPs Tyler Ferguson and Ethan Roberts from Iowa (IL). Optioned OF Kevin Alcántara to Iowa. Placed RHP Trent Thornton on the paternity list.
- Jun 8
Claimed RHP Eduarniel Núñez off waivers from Baltimore. Selected the contract of LHP Antoine Kelly from Iowa (IK).
- Jun 7
Acquired LHP Antoine Kelly from the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Source · ESPN
Position players · 26
Hitters & fielders
A. Bregman
3B · #3
B. Brown
RP · #32
C. Thielbar
RP · #24
C. Kelly
C · #15
C. Rea
SP · #53
D. Swanson
SS · #7
E. Cabrera
SP · #30
E. Roberts
RP · #39
G. Hollowell
RP · #46
H. Milner
RP · #41
I. Happ
LF · #8
J. Webb
RP · #71
J. Assad
SP · #72
J. Dean
CF · #1
M. Shaw
RF · #6
M. Busch
1B · #29
M. Conforto
DH · #20
M. Amaya
C · #9
N. Hoerner
2B · #2
P. Ramirez
2B · #75
P. Crow-Armstrong
CF · #4
P. Maton
RP · #88
R. Rolison
RP · #33
S. Suzuki
RF · #27
S. Imanaga
SP · #18
T. Thornton
RP · #49