Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at ATH?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Boston Red Sox vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 28, 2026

FINAL+1ATH

BOS

55-51

ATH

45-62

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

10,356 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.0 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

41.7%

open 42.8% · -1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

21.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
33.6%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
31.6%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
31.9%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.92

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

58.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at ATH?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+35.7pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

BOS

★ best

+130DraftKings

edge +35.7pp · implied 40.9%

ATH

no live price

Book	BOS	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	+130★	-169	+35.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATH vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 3.0low

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
Jeff McNeilATH
1.1± 0.8high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.7± 2.5high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
2.0± 2.7high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
0.6± 0.9high
Jarren DuranBOS
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high
Gage JumpATH
2.8± 3.4low
Jacob LopezATH
2.4± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

ATH

.717

OPS

.720

.317

OBP

.318

.320

4.36

Runs / G

4.50

4.35

3.52

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.42

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.50

8.6

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

BOS 3 · ATH 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3
ATH	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Boston Red SoxAthletics

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JonesDH	.364	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. GonzalezDH	.200	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. Contreras1B	.285	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
W. AbreuRF	.251	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.278	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. Durbin3B	.238	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. DuranLF	.199	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
A. MonasterioSS	.249	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. NarvaezC	.195	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. Seigler2B	.257	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. YoshidaDH	.262	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. WongC	.271	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
Team		30	3	8	3	1	6	11

Player

.364

.200

.285

.251

.278

.238

.199

.249

.195

.257

.262

.271

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BennettSP	6.1	6	3	3	2	4	88
J. MoranRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	13
R. WatsonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	12
Team	8.0	9	4	4	2	5	113

Player

J. BennettSP

6.1

J. MoranRP

0.2

R. WatsonRP

1.0

Team

8.0

113

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WilsonSS	.273	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Kurtz1B	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. HeimC	.217	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. SoderstromLF	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. White3B	.359	4	2	4	0	0	0	0
C. ThomasRF	.207	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. BolteCF	.249	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
A. WilliamsSS	.262	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ServenC	.286	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
L. ButlerRF	.199	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		31	4	9	4	1	2	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. JumpSP	6.0	3	0	0	4	7	90
L. MedinaRP	1.2	2	1	1	2	1	30
H. HarrisRP	1.1	3	2	2	0	3	26
Team	9.0	8	3	3	6	11	146

Team

BOS

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATH vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

ATH vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers