HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Gilbert (SEA): 7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over BAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 21 PTS · 5 REB · 14 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER in a win over MIA
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 5.0 IP · 7 K in a win over BOS
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBF. Valdez (DET): 6.0 IP · 6 K against HOU
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Boston (IND): 18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLPredators: Acquired C Ross Colton and G Isak Posch from Colorado for G Magnus Chrona, a 2…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanucks: Signed D Cole Clayton to a one-year contract. (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Acquired G Samuel Ersson, D Emil Andrae and a 2026 third-round pick from Phi…
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CHI, 6/17 - 8:00 PM EDT — NY -9.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Gilbert (SEA): 7.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER in a win over BAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 21 PTS · 5 REB · 14 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Salt Lake (PCL) (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Luzardo (PHI): 7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER in a win over MIA
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Cease (TOR): 5.0 IP · 7 K in a win over BOS
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
LAST NIGHT · MLBF. Valdez (DET): 6.0 IP · 6 K against HOU
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Boston (IND): 18 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLPredators: Acquired C Ross Colton and G Isak Posch from Colorado for G Magnus Chrona, a 2…
TRANSACTION · NHLCanucks: Signed D Cole Clayton to a one-year contract. (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · NHLMaple Leafs: Acquired G Samuel Ersson, D Emil Andrae and a 2026 third-round pick from Phi…
TONIGHT · WNBANY @ CHI, 6/17 - 8:00 PM EDT — NY -9.5
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Kansas City Royals
KC#15 · American League

Kansas City Royals

29-45 (39.2%) · L2 · L10 4-6

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#28 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .422 · exp 31.3-42.7 vs act 29-45 · n=74 · luck -2.3W · thru 2026-06-16 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-12 → 2026-06-16 · Full ATS profile →

LLost by 2 vs HOU, 8-10, 2026-06-12. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 1 vs HOU, 7-8, 2026-06-13. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
WWon by 4 vs HOU, 4-0, 2026-06-14. Covered the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 4 at WSH, 3-7, 2026-06-15. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 
LLost by 2 at WSH, 4-6, 2026-06-16. Did not cover the spread (closing line).
 

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

  1. 1Bobby Witt Jr.74 G.818
  2. 2Jac Caglianone68 G.780
  3. 3Maikel Garcia67 G.704
  4. 4Carter Jensen67 G.675
  5. 5Vinnie Pasquantino68 G.659

Home runs

  1. 1Bobby Witt Jr.74 G9
  2. 2Salvador Perez68 G9
  3. 3Jac Caglianone68 G8
  4. 4Carter Jensen67 G8
  5. 5Vinnie Pasquantino68 G6

RBI

  1. 1Carter Jensen67 G36
  2. 2Vinnie Pasquantino68 G32
  3. 3Maikel Garcia67 G30
  4. 4Bobby Witt Jr.74 G29
  5. 5Salvador Perez68 G26

Batting average

  1. 1Bobby Witt Jr.74 G.290
  2. 2Jac Caglianone68 G.269
  3. 3Maikel Garcia67 G.266
  4. 4Vinnie Pasquantino68 G.224
  5. 5Carter Jensen67 G.221

Stolen bases

  1. 1Bobby Witt Jr.74 G27
  2. 2Maikel Garcia67 G5
  3. 3Jac Caglianone68 G3
  4. 4Vinnie Pasquantino68 G3
  5. 5Isaac Collins65 G3

ERA

  1. 1Michael Wacha94.0 IP3.64
  2. 2Seth Lugo79.3 IP3.86

WHIP

  1. 1Michael Wacha94.0 IP1.17
  2. 2Seth Lugo79.3 IP1.35

Strikeouts

  1. 1Michael Wacha94.0 IP72
  2. 2Seth Lugo79.3 IP66

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.242vs .243League avg

OBP

.317vs .319League avg

SLG

.378vs .397Slight gap

OPS

.695vs .717Slight gap

HR

65

R / G

4.0

K / G

8.1

Pitching

ERA

4.51vs 4.17Below avg

FIP (approx)

4.55vs 4.18Below avg

WHIP

1.38vs 1.31Below avg

K / 9

8.0vs 8.5Below avg

BB / 9

3.9vs 3.5Below avg

BAA

.252

HR / 9

1.3

GP

74

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

0.30.50.81.01st · 0.83 for / 0.92 against · margin -0.081st2nd · 0.25 for / 0.33 against · margin -0.082nd3rd · 0.42 for / 0.58 against · margin -0.173rd4th · 0.50 for / 0.50 against · margin +0.004th5th · 0.75 for / 0.83 against · margin -0.085th6th · 0.92 for / 0.58 against · margin +0.33PEAK6th7th · 0.25 for / 0.42 against · margin -0.177th8th · 0.33 for / 0.33 against · margin +0.008th9th · 0.50 for / 0.50 against · margin +0.009thINNINGS · LAST 12 GAMES
ForAgainst

4.8 avg / 5.0 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Zone 1-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-1 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-1 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 1-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-2 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 2-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 100%Zone 3-3 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 1-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 2-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 60%Zone 3-4 · in strike zone · placeholder heat 43%Zone 1-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%Zone 2-5 · edge · placeholder heat 20%Zone 3-5 · edge · placeholder heat 11%STRIKE ZONE

Avg runs / game

3.80

Blowout wins (4+)

3

Shutout games

2

Form last 30

10-20

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 3.8 runs

2457AVG 3.8041327344356738910RUNS PER GAME

Form heatmap

The margin trail

Margin trail

Last 30 games · 2026-05-15 → 2026-06-16

Record

10-20

Win pct

33.3%

Avg margin

-1.2

Longest W

3

Longest L

6

Upset wins

9

Favorite losses

1

2026-05-15 · @ STL · L 4-5 · model gave 38%STL2026-05-16 · @ STL · L 2-4 · model gave 38%STL2026-05-17 · @ STL · W 2-0 · model gave 37%STL2026-05-18 · vs BOS · L 1-3 · model gave 48%BOS2026-05-19 · vs BOS · L 1-7 · model gave 48%BOS2026-05-20 · vs BOS · L 3-4 · model gave 48%BOS2026-05-22 · vs SEA · L 0-2 · model gave 51%SEA2026-05-23 · vs SEA · W 5-0 · model gave 50%SEA2026-05-24 · vs SEA · W 8-6 · model gave 48%SEA2026-05-25 · vs NYY · L 3-4 · model gave 38%NYY2026-05-26 · vs NYY · L 1-15 · model gave 38%NYY2026-05-27 · vs NYY · L 0-7 · model gave 36%NYY2026-05-29 · @ TEX · L 1-9 · model gave 40%TEX2026-05-30 · @ TEX · L 6-7 · model gave 40%TEX2026-05-31 · @ TEX · L 3-6 · model gave 41%TEX2026-06-01 · @ CIN · W 9-2 · model gave 41%CIN2026-06-02 · @ CIN · L 3-4 · model gave 42%CIN2026-06-03 · @ CIN · W 5-2 · model gave 44%CIN2026-06-04 · @ MIN · W 8-6 · model gave 46%MIN2026-06-05 · @ MIN · L 3-5 · model gave 46%MIN2026-06-06 · @ MIN · W 3-2 · model gave 47%MIN2026-06-07 · @ MIN · W 6-5 · model gave 48%MIN2026-06-09 · vs TEX · W 5-3 · model gave 48%TEX2026-06-10 · vs TEX · L 4-6 · model gave 48%TEX2026-06-11 · vs TEX · L 2-4 · model gave 48%TEX2026-06-12 · vs HOU · L 8-10 · model gave 50%HOU2026-06-13 · vs HOU · L 7-8 · model gave 49%HOU2026-06-14 · vs HOU · W 4-0 · model gave 48%HOU2026-06-15 · @ WSH · L 3-7 · model gave 41%WSH2026-06-16 · @ WSH · L 4-6 · model gave 41%WSH

Each cell = one game. Color = outcome. Intensity = margin. Diagonal slash = model called the wrong side. Click any cell to open that game's page.

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

164 games · 2025-06-18 → 2026-06-16

Peak 1520 · Now 1455 · Trough 1448

Next 5 games

The road ahead

@WSHpwr 63
vsSTLpwr 68
vsSTLpwr 68
vsSTLpwr 68
@TBpwr —

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

3 moves
  1. Jun 12

    Placed RHP Seth Lugo on the 7-day IL retroactive to June 11. Recalled RHP Eli Morgan from Omaha (IL).

  2. Jun 10

    Placed CF Kyle Isbel on the 10-day IL. Recalled CF Kameron Misner from Omaha (IL).

  3. Jun 9

    Sent LHP Kris Bubic on a rehab assignment to Omaha (IL). Activated RHP Stephen Kolek. Optioned 3B Josh Rojas to Omaha.

Source · ESPN

Position players · 26

Hitters & fielders

Alex Lange

A. Lange

RP · #56

Beck Way

B. Way

RP · #44

Bobby Witt Jr.

B. Witt Jr.

SS · #7

Carter Jensen

C. Jensen

C · #22

Connor Seabold

C. Seabold

RP · #43

Daniel Lynch IV

D. Lynch IV

RP · #41

Isaac Collins

I. Collins

LF · #1

Jac Caglianone

J. Caglianone

RF · #14

J

J. Rave

RF · #16

John Schreiber

J. Schreiber

RP · #46

Kameron Misner

K. Misner

CF · #26

Lane Thomas

L. Thomas

CF · #15

Lucas Erceg

L. Erceg

RP · #60

Luinder Avila

L. Avila

RP · #58

Maikel Garcia

M. Garcia

3B · #11

Mason Black

M. Black

RP · #47

Matt Strahm

M. Strahm

RP · #25

Michael Massey

M. Massey

2B · #19

Michael Wacha

M. Wacha

SP · #52

Nick Loftin

N. Loftin

2B · #12

Noah Cameron

N. Cameron

SP · #65

Salvador Perez

S. Perez

C · #13

Starling Marte

S. Marte

RF · #0

Stephen Kolek

S. Kolek

SP · #32

Steven Cruz

S. Cruz

RP · #64

Tyler Tolbert

T. Tolbert

2B · #2

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

65%Last 7 · 60-33
61%Last 30 · 297-187
Receipts →

Model picks on KC

Below the 30-pick gate (n=26)