Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TEX at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 28, 2026

FINAL+3TEX

TEX

55-52

62-44

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

14,502 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TB no-vig %

61.6%

open 61.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.8%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
63.9%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.9%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.2%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.33

CLV pp

Open price

-181

Close price

-178

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

61.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TEX at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+34.9pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

TEX

no live price

★ best

+217DraftKings

edge +34.9pp · implied 29.6%

Book	TEX	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	-299	+217★	+34.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 120 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high
Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.3± 1.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 1.1high
Liam HicksTB
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.3± 2.7high
Brandon NimmoTEX
2.0± 2.1high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
0.7± 0.9high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.7± 1.2high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Freddy PeraltaTB
3.7± 3.4high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high
Kumar RockerTEX
2.6± 2.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

.720

OPS

.719

▶

.732

.318

OBP

.318

▶

.329

4.15

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.47

4.29

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.74

1.29

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 4 · TB 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	4
TB	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.254	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
W. LangfordLF	.283	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
E. DuranSS	.275	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. NimmoRF	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. CarterCF	.204	3	1	2	1	0	1	1
J. Burger1B	.238	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Lopez2B	.319	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
J. Smith2B	.215	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. WynnsC	.250	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
Team		31	4	7	4	1	4	13

Player

.254

.283

.275

.268

.204

.238

.319

.215

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. QuantrillRP	5.1	2	1	1	1	7	69
P. GrayRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	13
T. AlexanderRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
J. JunisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	9
J. LatzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	5	1	1	1	9	114

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

114

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.301	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. Aranda1B	.285	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.285	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.201	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.293	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.223	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Palacios2B	.230	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. WallsSS	.221	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. FeducciaC	.230	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. ViladeRF	.256	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DeLucaRF	.262	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.252	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	5	1	0	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. JaxSP	5.2	5	2	1	3	10	93
S. MatzSP	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	22
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	30
K. KellyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	9.0	7	4	3	4	13	157

Team

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TB vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TB vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.