Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 26, 2026

FINAL+9CHW

HOU

52-55

312

CHW

55-49

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

32,581 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

CHW no-vig %

50.3%

open 52.2% · -1.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
50.7%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.6%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.6%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

HOU

no live price

CHW

no live price

Book	HOU	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	+102	-123	+1.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHW vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
7.3± 2.0high
Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.7± 0.9high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.2± 1.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
3.0± 2.1high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.4± 2.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 2.3high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
2.8± 2.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

CHW

.737

OPS

◀

.720

.724

.321

OBP

◀

.318

.316

4.64

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.78

4.63

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.00

1.37

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

HOU 3 · CHW 12 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHW +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
CHW	2	0	1	0	0	2	4	3	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Houston AstrosChicago White Sox

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.319	4	2	2	2	2	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.323	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
I. Paredes3B	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Altuve2B	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Wade Jr.LF	.182	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
Y. DiazC	.233	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. TrammellCF	.238	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
C. SmithRF	.206	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. DezenzoLF	.232	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. AllenSS	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. VazquezC	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	7	3	3	4	7

Player

.319

.323

.260

.232

.182

.233

.238

.206

.232

.250

.214

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. BlancoSP	5.1	4	5	5	3	4	85
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	20
B. KingRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	1	22
M. UllolaSP	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	24
Team	8.0	12	12	12	4	6	151

Player

5.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.283	2	2	2	0	0	1	0
M. Murakami1B	.239	5	3	3	6	2	0	0
M. Vargas3B	.242	5	1	1	2	1	0	2
B. MontgomeryRF	.246	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. BenintendiDH	.241	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
T. PetersCF	.283	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Meidroth2B	.276	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
L. AcunaSS	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. RomoC	.132	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
R. GrichukDH	.263	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. PerezCF	.171	1	2	1	2	1	0	0
Team		34	12	12	12	5	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. FeddeSP	4.1	5	3	3	1	2	68
J. HicksRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17
S. NewcombRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	25
G. TaylorRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17
C. MurphyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18
S. DominguezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	7	3	3	4	7	158

Team

HOU

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

CHW vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.