Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ARI at PIT?

The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 27, 2026

FINAL+1PIT

ARI

55-52

PIT

55-52

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

15,412 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

PIT no-vig %

53.2%

open 55.1% · -1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.4%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
53.4%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.1%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.41

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+113

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

47.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ARI at PIT?: The model favors ARI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.2pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

ARI

no live price

PIT

★ best

-111DraftKings

edge +5.2pp · implied 49.4%

Book	ARI	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	-117	-111★	+5.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high
Jared JonesPIT
5.2± 2.6low

Hits

James McCannARI
1.6± 1.1high
Brandon LowePIT
1.4± 1.1high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.6± 2.4high
Brandon LowePIT
2.4± 1.9high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

PIT

.706

OPS

.720

▶

.748

.314

OBP

.318

▶

.334

4.54

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.08

4.20

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.30

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.33

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

ARI 2 · PIT 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrollRF	.249	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.233	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. MorenoC	.310	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
K. Marte2B	.254	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. KeplerLF	.235	5	0	3	2	0	0	0
T. Locklear1B	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Del CastilloDH	.202	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Vargas1B	.272	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.270	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Arenado3B	.242	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BarrosaCF	.192	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	2	8	2	0	2	8

Player

.249

.233

.310

.254

.235

.273

.202

.272

.270

.242

.231

.192

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellySP	5.2	4	1	0	1	6	93
J. MorilloRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	22
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	18
T. ClarkeRP	1.1	3	1	0	0	0	19
Team	9.1	9	3	1	1	9	152

Player

5.2

1.1

1.0

1.1

Team

9.1

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.301	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.251	5	1	3	2	0	0	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.269	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. ValdezRF	.290	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. O'HearnRF	.276	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Gonzales3B	.315	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. GonzalezSS	.214	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. CallihanLF	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. DavisC	.174	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.242	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. CookCF	.200	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. RodriguezC	.265	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	3	9	3	0	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellerSP	5.1	6	2	2	1	4	83
Y. RamirezRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	26
R. MarinaccioRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
G. SotoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	23
M. MontgomeryRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	20
Team	10.0	8	2	2	2	8	165

Team

ARI

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

PIT vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.