Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at SD?

The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 28, 2026

FINAL+1SD

COL

42-66

54-53

Petco Park · San Diego, California

42,433 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

SD no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.8% · -0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
65.6%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
69.8%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.7%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.04

CLV pp

Open price

-192

Close price

-191

Open no-vig

62.8%

Close no-vig

62.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at SD?: The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.9pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

COL

no live price

★ best

+116DraftKings

edge +21.9pp · implied 43.5%

Book	COL	SD	Best edge
DraftKings	-151	+116★	+21.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SD vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Casey MizeSD
5.1± 2.4medium
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.8± 2.8high
Gabriel HughesCOL
4.7± 3.5low

Hits

Jackson MerrillSD
1.4± 1.1high
Ty FranceSD
1.2± 1.1high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Jackson MerrillSD
2.2± 1.9high
Willi CastroCOL
2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

.747

OPS

◀

.720

.696

.324

OBP

◀

.318

.312

4.86

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.23

5.52

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.15

1.52

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.32

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

COL 7 · SD 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	1	0	7
SD	0	2	0	0	1	1	2	1	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.296	5	1	1	1	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.279	5	1	2	3	1	0	3
H. GoodmanC	.256	5	0	0	0	0	0	4
T. Rumfield1B	.294	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CarriggCF	.301	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.288	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. Castro2B	.259	2	2	1	1	1	2	1
E. Julien2B	.214	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. TovarSS	.199	3	1	1	2	0	1	1
T. FreemanRF	.252	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.262	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	7	10	7	2	3	11

Player

.296

.279

.256

.294

.301

.288

.259

.214

.199

.252

.262

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LorenzenSP	4.0	8	3	3	1	2	93
J. MejiaRP	1.1	1	1	1	2	1	29
A. SenzatelaRP	0.2	3	2	1	1	0	15
B. BernardinoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
V. VodnikRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	1	26
J. HergetRP	0.1	1	1	1	2	0	15
Team	8.1	16	8	6	6	5	195

Player

4.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

0.1

Team

8.1

195

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.285	5	1	5	2	0	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.211	5	1	0	0	0	0	1
M. Machado3B	.216	4	1	3	1	0	1	0
T. France1B	.285	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. MerrillCF	.235	5	1	3	1	0	0	1
L. Rengifo3B	.394	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. Sheets1B	.216	1	2	1	0	0	2	0
X. BogaertsSS	.219	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
L. CampusanoC	.286	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.164	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Song2B	.212	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		36	8	16	6	0	6	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KingSP	6.0	6	4	4	1	6	98
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	20
A. MorejonRP	1.0	2	1	0	1	1	32
M. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
Team	9.0	10	7	6	3	11	161

Team

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SD vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.