Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at SEA?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 4, 2026

FINAL+8DET

DET

55-58

SEA

55-59

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

35,752 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

SEA no-vig %

56.1%

open 54.2% · +1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
51.5%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.4%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.8%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.89

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+109

Close price

+118

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

43.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at SEA?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

SEA vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 1.9high
Bryce MillerSEA
5.9± 4.4low

Hits

Max ClarkDET
2.0± 1.4low
Cole YoungSEA
1.5± 1.1high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.3± 1.8low

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
3.7± 3.1low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.6± 4.3low
Cole YoungSEA
2.2± 1.5high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
1.0± 2.2low
Max ClarkDET
1.0± 1.4low
Hao-Yu LeeDET
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.0high
George KirbySEA
2.6± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

SEA

.731

OPS

◀

.720

.687

.319

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.98

3.56

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.78

1.21

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.19

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 8 · SEA 0 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	4	8
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.284	4	0	0	1	0	1	1
G. Torres2B	.267	5	2	1	2	1	0	1
D. DinglerC	.272	5	2	2	1	1	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.278	5	2	3	1	1	0	2
C. Keith3B	.273	4	0	3	2	0	1	0
S. Torkelson1B	.220	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
M. ClarkCF	.375	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
J. BaezSS	.280	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.219	3	1	3	0	0	1	0
J. OutmanCF	.168	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Lee2B	.267	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	8	13	7	3	5	11

Player

.284

.267

.272

.278

.273

.220

.375

.280

.219

.168

.267

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MeltonSP	7.0	3	0	0	2	4	97
J. WaguespackRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	11
Y. DiazSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	30
Team	9.0	4	0	0	4	8	138

Player

T. MeltonSP

7.0

J. WaguespackRP

1.0

Y. DiazSP

1.0

Team

9.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.282	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. CanzoneDH	.257	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.255	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Naylor1B	.261	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. RaleighC	.163	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Donovan3B	.261	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. WardLF	.245	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. EmersonSS	.197	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		30	0	4	0	0	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. HancockSP	6.0	8	4	3	2	6	94
M. RuckerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	12
J. SimpsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	13
S. DominguezRP	0.1	4	4	4	2	0	26
C. WilcoxRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	9
Team	9.0	13	8	7	5	11	154

Team

DET

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SEA vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

SEA vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.