Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at SF?

The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 29, 2026

FINAL+13SF

MIL

67-41

316

46-62

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

35,399 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

46.8%

open 48.3% · -1.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.7%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
44.9%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.6%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.2%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.48

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIL at SF?: The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.9pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

MIL

★ best

+142DraftKings

edge +19.9pp · implied 38.9%

no live price

Book	MIL	SF	Best edge
DraftKings	+142★	-186	+19.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SF vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.2± 4.5medium
Logan HendersonMIL
6.2± 2.8low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.3± 0.8high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 1.0high
Jake BauersMIL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.4± 2.7high
Osleivis BasabeSF
2.3± 3.2low
Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Osleivis BasabeSF
1.1± 2.0low
Luis LaraMIL
0.8± 1.3high
Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.6± 2.3low
Carson SeymourSF
2.7± 2.1low
Landen RouppSF
2.7± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

.733

OPS

◀

.719

.722

.336

OBP

◀

.318

.309

4.96

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.17

3.45

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.38

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.36

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

MIL 3 · SF 16 (by 13)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	3
SF	0	3	0	0	0	7	3	3	16

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Turang2B	.271	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
J. ChourioLF	.274	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.267	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. YelichDH	.241	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
G. SanchezC	.214	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. MitchellCF	.266	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
L. LaraRF	.286	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. Hamilton3B	.242	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. PrattSS	.284	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
J. OrtizSS	.237	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Vaughn1B	.309	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		34	3	8	3	0	4	7

Player

.271

.274

.267

.241

.214

.266

.286

.242

.284

.237

.309

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. PannoneSP	3.0	3	3	2	2	2	56
C. PatrickRP	2.0	2	2	2	2	1	47
A. AshbyRP	0.1	3	5	4	1	1	24
B. WilsonRP	1.2	6	3	3	0	0	35
A. Vaughn1B	1.0	3	3	3	2	1	29
Team	8.0	17	16	14	7	5	191

Player

3.0

2.0

0.1

1.2

1.0

Team

8.0

191

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Arraez2B	.331	5	1	4	2	0	0	0
B. EldridgeDH	.250	5	2	0	1	0	1	1
H. RamosLF	.267	5	1	4	3	0	1	0
R. Devers1B	.243	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. LeeRF	.302	6	1	2	3	0	0	0
W. AdamesSS	.228	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
D. SusacC	.256	4	3	2	4	2	1	0
G. McCrayCF	.154	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Koss2B	.161	5	3	2	1	0	0	0
O. BasabeSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CavanaughC	.261	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. RodríguezC	.240	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. GilbertCF	.237	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
Team		42	16	17	15	2	7	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. WebbSP	6.0	5	2	2	1	4	96
S. HentgesRP	1.0	2	1	1	2	1	24
C. KilianRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	18
K. WinnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	8	3	3	4	7	152

Team

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SF vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.