St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Jul 31, 2026

STL

40-34

PregameFri, 7:07 PM EDT

TOR

37-39

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 7/31

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.8%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 3.0low
Dustin MaySTL
5.7± 3.6low
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.3± 2.4medium

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.4high
Blaze JordanSTL
1.1± 1.1low
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.1± 1.6high
Blaze JordanSTL
2.0± 3.1low
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.9± 1.7high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
0.9± 1.5low
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.9± 1.4high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.6high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 1.9medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
2.8± 2.7medium
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
2.8± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

TOR

.721

OPS

◀

.719

.699

.325

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.55

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.22

Team ERA

4.19

▶

4.14

1.34

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.31

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.