Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at TOR?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 31, 2026

FINAL+2TOR

STL

54-56

TOR

51-59

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

41,506 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.0% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.2%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
45.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.2%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.3%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.85

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at TOR?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.6pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

STL

★ best

+147DraftKings

edge +20.6pp · implied 38.0%

TOR

no live price

Book	STL	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	+147★	-195	+20.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Jose SorianoTOR
5.2± 2.6high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 2.2high

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 0.9high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 0.9high
George SpringerTOR
1.0± 0.6high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.0± 3.6high
George SpringerTOR
1.6± 1.3high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 1.9high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.6± 0.7high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonTOR
3.5± 2.7medium
Max ScherzerTOR
3.4± 3.9low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

TOR

.694

OPS

◀

.719

.679

.315

OBP

◀

.318

.302

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.90

4.12

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.06

1.34

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.32

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

STL 1 · TOR 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.251	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. WalkerRF	.281	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
A. Burleson1B	.282	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
I. HerreraDH	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. NootbaarLF	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. WinnSS	.243	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
N. ChurchCF	.226	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.165	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		32	1	5	1	0	3	11

Player

.251

.281

.282

.244

.235

.243

.226

.241

.165

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LeahySP	6.0	6	1	1	1	3	98
J. BruihlRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	1	16
P. StrzeleckiRP	1.0	0	2	2	2	0	17
G. GraceffoRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	13
Team	8.0	9	3	3	4	4	144

Player

6.0

0.1

1.0

0.2

Team

8.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LukesRF	.279	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.265	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. Okamoto3B	.231	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
G. SpringerDH	.235	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
D. VarshoCF	.245	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
E. Clement2B	.292	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. SanchezRF	.272	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.239	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.232	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.218	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.148	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Urias2B	.233	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
Team		30	3	9	3	0	4	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CeaseSP	6.0	3	1	1	3	7	96
S. MilesRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
L. VarlandRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15
Team	9.0	5	1	1	3	11	138

Team

STL

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TOR vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.