Does the NHL hub include model picks?

Yes — per-team Elo with goaltender-start adjustments runs underneath, and the model's win-probability edge is surfaced on every game page. The cross-sport edge leaderboard at /best-bets folds NHL into the same view as MLB, NBA, and WNBA.

How does the NHL Elo handle starting goalies?

When the starting goaltender is announced, we adjust the team's pre-game rating by their goaltender-start delta (a per-keeper number tracked across the season). If the starter changes between announcement and puck drop, the model re-prices using the actual starter's rating.

Where do NHL scores come from?

Scoreboard, standings, and recent form pull from ESPN's public NHL API, refreshed every 60 seconds while a game is live.

Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts

NHLAnalytics2025-26

Modelgraded 1,394 NHL games all-time · 54% · ratings refresh daily

The Model · NHL

1,394 NHL games graded — 54% called right.

No NHL slate today. The all-time calibration record is the number that doesn’t reset between games. See the receipts →

Model accuracy · NHL

How the NHL model grades

See receipts →

Last 30

43.8%

16 games

Last 90

58.7%

315 games

All time

-3.0vs mkt

368/1394 priced · raw 54.2%

By confidence tier · all-time

★ Locks

64.6%

127g

+4.6

Edges

56.4%

466g

+1.4

Leans

51.1%

503g

-0.9

Tossups

51.7%

298g

+1.7

Reliability curve · is the NHL model calibrated?›

1,394 picks · 6 buckets

Model calibration: predicted win probability vs actual win rate by bucket, with 95% Wilson confidence intervals, over 1,394 graded picks.
Predicted	Actual win rate	Sample	95% CI	Verdict
50 to 55%	51.9%	208 of 401	47–57%	calibrated
55 to 60%	52.5%	337 of 642	49–56%	overconfident
60 to 65%	59.8%	153 of 256	54–66%	calibrated
65 to 70%	57.3%	43 of 75	46–68%	calibrated
70 to 75%	78.9%	15 of 19	57–91%	calibrated
75 to 80%	0.0%	0 of 1	0–79%	calibrated