Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at LAA?

The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 28, 2026

FINAL+1HOU

HOU

54-55

LAA

42-66

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

32,051 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

LAA no-vig %

49.6%

open 48.9% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

23.1%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
34.4%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
33.2%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
32.6%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in HOU at LAA?: The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.2pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

HOU

★ best

-227DraftKings

edge +10.2pp · implied 65.2%

LAA

no live price

Book	HOU	LAA	Best edge
DraftKings	-227★	+170	+10.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.4± 2.0high
Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.5± 1.0high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.2± 1.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
2.8± 2.4high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 2.3high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.9± 1.5high

RBIs

Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
0.8± 0.9high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Grayson RodriguezLAA
3.5± 2.7low
Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.3± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

LAA

.738

OPS

◀

.720

.695

.322

OBP

◀

.318

.313

4.66

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.17

4.61

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.48

1.36

WHIP

1.30

1.36

8.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 3 · LAA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	3
LAA	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.314	5	0	1	0	0	0	4
Y. AlvarezDH	.325	4	1	2	2	1	1	1
I. Paredes3B	.255	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Walker1B	.235	4	1	2	1	1	0	2
J. Altuve2B	.232	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.204	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. TrammellCF	.237	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. DezenzoLF	.225	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. VazquezC	.216	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
J. HaderRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. AllenSS	.258	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. Wade Jr.LF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. SpenceCF	.152	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	3	9	3	2	3	17

Player

.314

.325

.255

.235

.232

.204

.237

.225

.216

.000

.258

.167

.152

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. LambertSP	5.0	7	2	2	1	6	90
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
B. AbreuRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18
J. HaderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	4
Team	9.0	7	2	2	1	11	144

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.234	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. TroutCF	.244	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Schanuel1B	.279	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. SolerDH	.205	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
V. Grissom2B	.264	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
W. MecklerLF	.291	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. AdellRF	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. Peraza2B	.236	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. O'HoppeC	.209	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Guzman3B	.235	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SiriCF	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	2	7	2	0	1	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. DetmersSP	5.0	4	2	2	1	9	84
J. FerminRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	22
B. SuterRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. YatesRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	17
S. Natera Jr.RP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	21
M. FarrisRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	18
Team	9.0	9	3	3	3	17	164

Team

HOU

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

LAA vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

LAA vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.