St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 4, 2026

FINAL+2NYY

STL

56-58

NYY

64-50

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

41,081 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYY no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.0% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
59.0%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.8%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.4%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.1pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

STL

★ best

+316DraftKings

edge +17.1pp · implied 23.3%

NYY

no live price

Book	STL	NYY	Best edge
DraftKings	+316★	-383	+17.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYY vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.8± 2.6high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.6± 1.8high

Hits

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.2± 1.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 1.0high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.5± 2.8high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.1± 3.6high
Ben RiceNYY
1.5± 1.9high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.7± 1.9high
Spencer JonesNYY
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Will WarrenNYY
2.5± 2.3high
Michael McGreevySTL
2.4± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

NYY

.694

OPS

.720

▶

.722

.315

OBP

◀

.318

.309

4.35

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.57

4.15

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.34

1.34

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.19

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

STL 0 · NYY 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NYY	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.248	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
I. HerreraDH	.240	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. FerminLF	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. VelazquezLF	.216	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. WinnSS	.239	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Jordan3B	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. ChurchCF	.233	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. PagesC	.206	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. TorresLF	.239	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. Burleson1B	.288	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	0	6	0	0	3	10

Player

.248

.240

.242

.216

.239

.244

.233

.206

.239

.288

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. DobbinsSP	6.1	4	2	2	3	4	92
C. FergusonRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	8.0	5	2	2	3	5	109

Player

H. DobbinsSP

6.1

C. FergusonRP

1.2

Team

8.0

109

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.214	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Rice1B	.262	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.375	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. RamosLF	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. JonesCF	.221	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.218	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
R. McMahon3B	.214	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Lombard Jr.SS	.500	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
A. WellsC	.166	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.245	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. SanchezC	.273	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	2	5	2	2	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. WeathersSP	6.0	4	0	0	1	6	88
F. CruzRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	10
B. HeadrickRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	18
D. BednarRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	23
Team	9.0	6	0	0	3	10	139

Team

STL

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

NYY vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.