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SEA#5 · American League

Seattle Mariners

37-36 (50.7%) · L2 · L10 4-6

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Pythagorean expectation (1.83 exponent)

#5 of 30

Pyth(1.83) .530 · exp 38.7-34.3 vs act 37-36 · n=73 · luck -1.7W · thru 2026-06-15 · mlb_game_results

Rank within the full 30-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Last 5 form

2026-06-10 → 2026-06-14 · Full ATS profile →

Model picks on SEA

17-17 graded · 50.0% (95% CI 34.1-65.9) · break-even 52.4% · since 2026-03-27

All MLB · 594-464 graded

Tonight's graded board →

Stat leaders

Who carries them

OPS

1Randy Arozarena71 G.825
2J.P. Crawford55 G.765
3Julio Rodríguez73 G.740
4Josh Naylor68 G.687
5Cole Young73 G.685

Home runs

RBI

Batting average

1Randy Arozarena71 G.291
2Cole Young73 G.260
3Josh Naylor68 G.253
4Julio Rodríguez73 G.248
5J.P. Crawford55 G.228

Stolen bases

ERA

1Emerson Hancock79.7 IP3.28
2Logan Gilbert79.7 IP3.62
3George Kirby84.0 IP4.07
4Bryan Woo82.0 IP4.28

WHIP

1Emerson Hancock79.7 IP1.02
2Bryan Woo82.0 IP1.04
3Logan Gilbert79.7 IP1.08
4George Kirby84.0 IP1.31

Strikeouts

1Logan Gilbert79.7 IP82
2Bryan Woo82.0 IP79
3Emerson Hancock79.7 IP75
4George Kirby84.0 IP74

2026 season · MLB Stats API · MLB-qualified pool (3.1 PA / 1.0 IP per team game; min 20 G hitters / 20 IP pitchers) — counting boards draw from the same qualified pool

Team rate stats · 2026

Hitting + pitching vs league

MLB Stats API

Hitting

AVG

.237vs .243Slight gap

OBP

.316vs .319League avg

SLG

.397vs .398League avg

OPS

.713vs .717League avg

R / G

4.3

K / G

8.5

Pitching

ERA

3.69vs 4.18Above avg

FIP (approx)

3.67vs 4.18Above avg

WHIP

1.20vs 1.31Above avg

K / 9

8.7vs 8.5Slight edge

BB / 9

2.6vs 3.5Above avg

BAA

.242

HR / 9

1.0

Tick mark on each bar is the league average for the 2026 season. ERA / FIP / WHIP / BB-9 are inverted (lower is better); the tone label still reads intuitively. FIP is approximate — fixed 3.10 constant, not the season-derived one.

Inning identity

When they score

Pattern by inning

12 games · for vs against

ForAgainst

4.3 avg / 5.3 allowed

Plate signature

The strike zone

Plate identity

From the catcher's view · last 30 games

Avg runs / game

4.37

Blowout wins (4+)

Shutout games

Form last 30

16-14

Pitch heat density activates with Statcast pitch-location ingest. Until then, the signature is the team's aggregate scoring identity.

Run-scoring identity

How they score

Scoring distribution

30 games · avg 4.4 runs

Model rating arc

The Elo timeline

177 games · 2025-06-17 → 2026-06-14

Peak 1562 · Now 1513 · Trough 1484

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

6 moves

Jun 12
Acquired RHP Connor Wilford from the Lexington Legends (Atlantic League).
Jun 11
Designated RHP Domingo Gonzalez for assignment. Selected the contract of RHP Michael Rucker from Tacoma (PCL).
Jun 10
Designated RHP Yosver Zulueta for assignment. Reinstated 3B Miles Mastrobuoni from the 60-day IL. Placed RHP Matt Brash on the 15-day IL retroactive to June 9. Optioned 2B Ryan Bliss to Tacoma (PCL). Recalled RHP Domingo Gonzalez from Tacoma. Acquired RHP Carson Fulmer from Pittsburgh for cash considerations.
Jun 9
Sent 3B Will Wilson and C Cal Raleigh on rehab assignments to Tacoma (PCL). Recalled RHP Nick Davila from Tacoma. Placed RHP Cooper Criswell on the 15-day IL.
Jun 8
Placed SS J.P. Crawford on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 6. Recalled 2B Ryan Bliss from Tacoma (PCL).
Jun 7
Sent C Cal Raleigh on a rehab assignment to Everett (NWL).

Source · ESPN