Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at CLE?

The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 4, 2026

FINAL+4NYM

NYM

48-66

CLE

57-57

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

24,636 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

58.3%

open 55.3% · +3.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.0%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
62.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.7%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.1%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.79

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-137

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

55.3%

Close no-vig

58.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at CLE?: The model favors CLE, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+49.5pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

CLE

★ best

+630DraftKings

edge +49.5pp · implied 13.2%

Book	NYM	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	-870	+630★	+49.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

116

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.1± 2.2high

Hits

Nathaniel LoweCLE
1.2± 1.2high
Steven KwanCLE
1.2± 1.0high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high
Carson BengeNYM
1.8± 1.7high
Nathaniel LoweCLE
1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

Nathaniel LoweCLE
0.7± 0.9high
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high
Patrick BaileyCLE
0.6± 0.6high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
2.8± 2.9low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.1high
Slade CecconiCLE
2.4± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

CLE

.686

OPS

.719

.681

.303

OBP

.318

▶

.312

4.08

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.94

4.07

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.74

1.29

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.26

9.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 6 · CLE 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	6
CLE	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A.J. EwingCF	.265	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
F. LindorSS	.233	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Bichette3B	.256	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.255	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
C. BengeRF	.264	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
L. Robert Jr.CF	.190	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Semien2B	.210	3	2	0	0	0	1	1
J. Young1B	.244	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
L. TorrensC	.229	3	1	3	4	1	1	0
Team		35	6	9	6	3	3	9

Player

.265

.233

.256

.255

.264

.190

.210

.244

.229

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ManaeaRP	6.0	7	2	2	5	7	100
D. DuarteRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	16
N. LavenderRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	19
K. SengaSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18
Team	9.0	7	2	2	8	8	153

Player

S. ManaeaRP

6.0

100

D. DuarteRP

0.2

N. LavenderRP

1.1

K. SengaSP

1.0

Team

9.0

153

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanLF	.261	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. AdellRF	.500	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
C. DeLauterRF	.279	2	1	1	0	0	3	0
R. Hoskins1B	.177	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. MartinezLF	.226	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
T. Bazzana2B	.245	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
G. Arias3B	.244	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. HedgesC	.272	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. RocchioSS	.259	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
N. LoweDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	7	2	0	8	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CantilloSP	5.0	7	5	2	2	5	81
S. CecconiSP	2.2	2	1	1	0	4	43
T. HerrinRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	12
Team	9.0	9	6	3	3	9	136

Team

NYM

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CLE vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CLE vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.