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156 prospects · 104 on the big board · Jun 23 2026
The One Analytics
2026 NBA Big Board
On 3 of the top 40 projected picks, our deterministic composite breaks from the mock consensus by a full tier or more — that's where we see draft-night value the field misses. The board otherwise tracks the consensus closely; every model-vs-field gap is still shown on the card. Sort by any trait, filter by position group, click any card for the full report.
Realized career value by draft slot · matured classes 2000–2019 · n=705 drafted players · pooled cumulative career VORP + outcome rates (hit = career VORP ≥ 5, bust = < 0), n-weighted per tier · computed Jul 19 · our aggregation of realized outcomes — a historical baseline, not a 2026 projection
Pick-value context — the baseline
What a draft slot has been worth
Before the board, the baseline. Across matured draft classes, this is the career value each region of the draft has actually returned — average cumulative VORP, plus how often a pick became an All-Star, cleared the 5-VORP “hit” line, or returned negative value. It frames where value has historically lived; it is not a forecast for any 2026 prospect.
Realized value
#1 overall
Pick 1 · n=10
Avg career VORP38.8
- All-Star70%
- Hit rate80%
- Bust rate10%
70% made an All-Star team; 10% returned negative value.
Realized value
Lottery
Picks 2–14 · n=191
Avg career VORP10.8
- All-Star24%
- Hit rate48%
- Bust rate21%
24% made an All-Star team; 21% returned negative value.
Realized value
Mid first round
Picks 15–30 · n=206
Avg career VORP4.0
- All-Star6%
- Hit rate25%
- Bust rate41%
6% made an All-Star team; 41% returned negative value.
Realized value
Second round
Picks 31–60 · n=298
Avg career VORP1.7
- All-Star4%
- Hit rate13%
- Bust rate57%
4% made an All-Star team; 57% returned negative value.
156 of 156
Lottery
14 prospects
First Round
16 prospects
Early Second Round
15 prospects
Late Second Round
15 prospects
Fringe / Undrafted
44 prospects
Unranked
52 prospects
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