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C#2 of 32 bigs in 2026· Projected R1
Aday Mara
Skilled big
Michigan·7'3" · 260lb·7'6" wing·9'9" reach·9.0" hand·21.2 yo at draft·Zaragoza, Spain
LotteryRare outlier
ATH composite
39
NCAA dominance
89
Scoring
89
Playmaking
95
Defense
95
Shooting
90
Combine
Max vertical
28.0"p7
Lane agility
11.47sp64
¾ sprint
3.61sp4
Standing reach
117.0"p100
Draft score 92 out of 100, overall rank 4, elite statistical outlier.
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionPlus Length7'6" wing · 96thEfficient ScorerSynergy offense 94thRim ProtectorBLK 94th · classSharpshootereFG 91st · classElite ProducerBPM 91st · class
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classSkilled big. Carried by scoring efficiency (94th) and rim protection (94th); no glaring statistical hole.
StrengthsScoring efficiency94Rim protection94
Why this rank
Editorial pin
Our scouting call slots Mara at #4 — the deterministic model alone had Mara at #8.
Rare
Rare outlier — top 5% draft score
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
#4
Chicago Bulls
1st roundModel vs the field
The One
#4
Field
#14
▲ +10Value — the model would take them 10 slots earlier than the field.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Skilled big profile. The loudest scout signal: elite wingspan (wingspan 90 = 94th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 89 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 14th across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#4▲ Riser · up 7
May 30 · #11Jul 27 · #4
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable92.2draft scoreboard #4
Market 62% · consensus 14th / 3 boardsModel 38% · ranked 3rd
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Mara 14th, our model 3rd. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 92-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%39
NCAA dominanceweight 40%89
Mock consensusweight 20%86
avg rank 14 across 3 boards
Consensus floor applied: 77 (top-15 multi-source override)
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite wingspan
wingspan 90 = 94th pct
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 100th pct
- +5
High usage + efficient
USG and TS percentiles both clear the v1 trigger
- -4
Slow first step
sprint = 2th pct
- -3
Heavy-legged
max vertical = 4th pct
- +3
Defensive impact
STL% + BLK% = 95th pct
- +3
Consensus top-15
average consensus rank 14
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 76th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. B-bucket
7 of 7 drills measured
Wingspan
med 85.8"
90.0"
p94
Standing reach
med 108.0"
117.0"
p100
Max vertical
med 32.5"
28.0"
p7
Standing vert
med 28.5"
24.0"
p7
¾ sprint
med 3.33s
3.61s
p4
Lane agility
med 11.65s
11.47s
p64
Shuttle
med 3.10s
3.36s
p11
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionHeight
7'3"96
Wingspan diff
+3.0"9
Hand length
9.00"26
Hand width
9.50"13
Wingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionShooting & agility at the combine
Spot-up 3PT
12/25 · 48%43
Off-dribble 3PT
13/30 · 43%14
On-move 3PT
16/25 · 64%81
Modified agility
3.36s5
via stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · Michigan Wolverines68 / 100 two-way score
Offense
1.37 PPP94
Defense
0.86 allow69
Shot dieteFG 67%3PT rate 4%FT rate 5%
Mara's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs bigs · 2021–2025Closest NBA comparisons
Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Mara.
“Top X%” = closer to Mara than (100−X)% of all drafted bigs on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
Outlier profile · Mara sits outside the measured/produced range of past drafted bigs — there's no genuinely tight historical comp. These are the closest available profiles, not a precise match.
- 1Donovan Clingan2024top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · 3.2 career VORP · 144 g
College: Connecticut '24 · TS 63.7 · BPM 14.6
Max vert28.0"vs29.0"Wing90.0"vs90.8"Std vert24.0"vs26.0"Reach117.0"vs115.0"Agility11.47svs12.06sWeight260 lbvs282 lbHt7'3"vs7'2"Shuttle3.36svs3.00s¾ sprint3.61svs3.00sBPM14.6vs14.6USG%23.8vs24.6TS%65.8vs63.7PORPAG3.4vs4.4AST%19.0vs13.4 - 2Walker Kessler2022top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 5.1 career VORP · 201 g
College: Auburn '22 · TS 62.7 · BPM 15.7
Weight260 lbvs256 lbWing90.0"vs88.3"Reach117.0"vs113.0"Ht7'3"vs7'0"PORPAG3.4vs3.6Age21.2vs20.9BPM14.6vs15.7TS%65.8vs62.7USG%23.8vs19.0AST%19.0vs7.0 - 3Khaman Maluach2025top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · -0.2 career VORP · 46 g
College: Duke '25 · TS 73.6 · BPM 10.9
Std vert24.0"vs24.0"Shuttle3.36svs3.40sWing90.0"vs90.8"Weight260 lbvs253 lbMax vert28.0"vs30.0"¾ sprint3.61svs3.50sAgility11.47svs12.10sReach117.0"vs114.0"Ht7'3"vs7'1"PORPAG3.4vs4.0BPM14.6vs10.9Age21.2vs18.8TS%65.8vs73.6USG%23.8vs16.8AST%19.0vs4.3 - 4Neemias Queta2021top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 2.8 career VORP · 186 g
College: Utah St. '21 · TS 59.3 · BPM 12.9
Weight260 lbvs248 lbAgility11.47svs11.85sShuttle3.36svs3.50sWing90.0"vs88.0"Std vert24.0"vs27.0"Max vert28.0"vs33.0"Reach117.0"vs112.5"¾ sprint3.61svs3.29sHt7'3"vs6'11"AST%19.0vs18.4USG%23.8vs24.9PORPAG3.4vs3.9Age21.2vs21.9BPM14.6vs12.9TS%65.8vs59.3 - 5Mark Williams2022top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 3.8 career VORP · 166 g
College: Duke '22 · TS 72.4 · BPM 13.1
Reach117.0"vs117.0"Wing90.0"vs90.5"Weight260 lbvs242 lbHt7'3"vs7'0"BPM14.6vs13.1PORPAG3.4vs4.6USG%23.8vs18.6TS%65.8vs72.4AST%19.0vs6.9
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
10/10 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
2 Star2 Starter6 Rotation
Median outcome: Rotation — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
DeMarcus Cousins2010
Star · 4× All-Star
Floor
Meyers Leonard2012
Rotation · 1.0 VORP
The 15 nearest blended comps (5 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Mara.
College teamMichiganB10#1 T-Rank37-3SOS elite schedule · top 1%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
Michigan· B10
40 games · 58% min
labeled C
Efficiency
- TS%65.8%94
- eFG%67.3%95
- USG%23.8%86
- ORTG119.591
- AdjOE133.897
- RIM%81.1%97
Playmaking
- AST%19.0%96
- TO%19.8%45
Defense
- STL%0.8%38
- BLK%12.0%97
- DRTG83.998
- DBPM+10.299
Rebounding
- ORB%10.4%69
- DRB%20.4%78
Composite
- BPM+14.699
- OBPM+4.497
- PORPAG3.496
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs B-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position40 games· 23.4 mpg
Points
12.193
Rebounds
6.890
Assists
2.498
Steals
0.364
Blocks
2.699
ShootingFG 66.8%3PT 30.0%FT 56.4%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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