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PG#14 of 40 guards in 2026· Projected R2
Braden Smith
Lead playmaker
Purdue·5'10" · 167lb·6'3" wing·7'10" reach·8.3" hand·22.9 yo at draft
Early 2nd
ATH composite
50
NCAA dominance
87
Scoring
76
Playmaking
100
Defense
81
Shooting
66
Combine
Max vertical
38.5"p77
Lane agility
10.76sp82
¾ sprint
3.23sp43
Standing reach
93.5"p5
Draft score 51 out of 100, overall rank 39.
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionTop tool · Playmaking94th · class
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classLead playmaker. Carried by passing (94th) and shot creation (69th); the question marks are scoring efficiency (17th) and perimeter defense (33rd).
StrengthsPassing94Shot creation69
WatchScoring efficiency17Perimeter defense33
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
#39
Houston Rockets
2nd roundModel vs the field
The One
#39
Field
#45
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Lead playmaker profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 99th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 87 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 45th across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#39▼ Faller · down 6
May 30 · #33Jul 27 · #39
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable51.2draft scoreboard #39
Market 62% · consensus 45th / 3 boardsModel 38% · ranked 25th
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Smith 45th, our model 25th. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 51-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%50
NCAA dominanceweight 40%87
Mock consensusweight 20%55
avg rank 45 across 3 boards
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 99th pct
- +5
High usage + efficient
USG and TS percentiles both clear the v1 trigger
- -4
Short wingspan for position
wingspan = 7th pct
- +4
Elite playmaker (G)
AST% = 100th pct
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 50th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. G-bucket
7 of 7 drills measured
Wingspan
med 79.3"
75.3"
p11
Standing reach
med 99.5"
93.5"
p5
Max vertical
med 35.5"
38.5"
p77
Standing vert
med 30.0"
31.0"
p63
¾ sprint
med 3.21s
3.23s
p43
Lane agility
med 11.09s
10.76s
p82
Shuttle
med 3.05s
2.87s
p88
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionHeight
5'10.3"0
Wingspan diff
+5.0"70
Hand length
8.25"45
Hand width
8.25"5
Wingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionShooting & agility at the combine
Spot-up 3PT
15/25 · 60%53
Off-dribble 3PT
20/30 · 67%21
On-move 3PT
13/25 · 52%37
Modified agility
2.87s74
via stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · Purdue Boilermakers33 / 100 two-way score
Offense
1.04 PPP17
Defense
0.96 allow33
Shot dieteFG 51%3PT rate 40%FT rate 2%
Smith's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs guards · 2011–2022Closest NBA comparisons
Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Smith.
“Top X%” = closer to Smith than (100−X)% of all drafted guards on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
- 1Norris Cole2011top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · -4.1 career VORP · 360 g
College: Cleveland St. '11 · TS 54.8 · BPM 9.5
Max vert38.5"vs38.5"¾ sprint3.23svs3.22sWing75.3"vs74.3"Ht5'10"vs6'0"Weight167 lbvs174 lbStd vert31.0"vs29.5"Reach93.5"vs95.5"Agility10.76svs10.07sTS%55.1vs54.8Age22.9vs22.7BPM8.5vs9.5PORPAG5.3vs5.8AST%43.0vs38.0USG%26.5vs32.8 - 2Kennedy Chandler2022top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production
Became: Fringe NBA · -0.4 career VORP · 47 g
College: Tennessee '22 · TS 53.9 · BPM 7.4
Std vert31.0"vs31.0"Agility10.76svs10.73sShuttle2.87svs2.89sHt5'10"vs6'0"Weight167 lbvs172 lbWing75.3"vs77.3"Max vert38.5"vs41.5"Reach93.5"vs97.0"USG%26.5vs25.2TS%55.1vs53.9BPM8.5vs7.4AST%43.0vs32.4PORPAG5.3vs3.6 - 3Shabazz Napier2014top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 2.0 career VORP · 345 g
College: Connecticut '14 · TS 59.1 · BPM 10.6
Wing75.3"vs75.3"Ht5'10"vs5'11"Reach93.5"vs93.0"Std vert31.0"vs30.5"¾ sprint3.23svs3.20sMax vert38.5"vs37.5"Weight167 lbvs175 lbShuttle2.87svs3.13sAgility10.76svs11.60sAge22.9vs22.9PORPAG5.3vs5.5USG%26.5vs28.1BPM8.5vs10.6TS%55.1vs59.1AST%43.0vs30.8 - 4Russ Smith2014top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Fringe NBA · -0.1 career VORP · 27 g
College: Louisville '14 · TS 57.6 · BPM 9.2
Wing75.3"vs75.5"Ht5'10"vs6'0"¾ sprint3.23svs3.27sWeight167 lbvs160 lbReach93.5"vs95.0"Std vert31.0"vs29.5"Shuttle2.87svs3.01sMax vert38.5"vs34.0"Agility10.76svs11.57sAge22.9vs23.2BPM8.5vs9.2TS%55.1vs57.6PORPAG5.3vs4.5USG%26.5vs30.7AST%43.0vs31.6 - 5Shamorie Ponds2019top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Never reached the NBA · 0 g
College: St. John's '19 · TS 57.7 · BPM 7.9
Wing75.3"vs75.5"Ht5'10"vs6'0"¾ sprint3.23svs3.20sMax vert38.5"vs37.0"Agility10.76svs11.01sStd vert31.0"vs29.0"Shuttle2.87svs3.07sWeight167 lbvs180 lbReach93.5"vs96.5"PORPAG5.3vs5.3BPM8.5vs7.9USG%26.5vs27.6TS%55.1vs57.7Age22.9vs21.0AST%43.0vs29.0
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
8/13 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
1 Star1 Starter2 Rotation4 Fringe5 Never reached NBA
Median outcome: Fringe — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Kemba Walker2011
Star · 4× All-Star
Floor
Carlik Jones2021
Never reached NBA
The 15 nearest blended comps (2 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Smith.
College teamPurdueB10#8 T-Rank30-9SOS elite schedule · top 1%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
Purdue· B10
39 games · 86% min
labeled Pure PG
Efficiency
- TS%55.1%74
- eFG%51.1%73
- USG%26.5%89
- ORTG119.792
- AdjOE137.197
- RIM%60.5%80
Playmaking
- AST%43.0%98
- TO%19.5%50
Defense
- STL%3.0%78
- BLK%0.7%74
- DRTG98.679
- DBPM+1.990
Rebounding
- ORB%2.4%67
- DRB%10.3%70
Composite
- BPM+8.598
- OBPM+6.697
- PORPAG5.399
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs G-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position39 games· 34.5 mpg
Points
14.389
Rebounds
3.586
Assists
8.899
Steals
1.794
Blocks
0.284
ShootingFG 44.0%3PT 36.2%FT 82.5%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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