Allen Graves

Skilled big. Carried by rebounding (81st); the question marks are perimeter defense (6th) and scoring efficiency (24th).

Draft outlook

Where the math lands them

Projected landing

#23

Atlanta Hawks

1st round

Model vs the field

The One

#23

vs

Field

#18

In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.

across 3 mock boards

Scouting summary

Skilled big profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 99th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 90 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 18th across 3 boards.

Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.

34 / 100 two-way score

Graves's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.

Closest NBA comparisons

Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Graves.

“Top X%” = closer to Graves than (100−X)% of all drafted bigs on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.

1. 1Markieff Morris2011

   top 1%

   measurables + production · matched on 7 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production

   Became: Starter · 2.3 career VORP · 791 g

   College: Kansas '11 · TS 64.2 · BPM 10.5

   Reach106.5"vs106.5"Std vert27.5"vs27.0"¾ sprint3.44svs3.40sWing84.0"vs82.8"Ht6'8"vs6'8"Max vert34.0"vs31.5"Weight226 lbvs241 lbPORPAG4.1vs3.7AST%13.8vs11.0TS%61.5vs64.2USG%22.4vs25.2BPM14.2vs10.5
2. 2Coleman Hawkins2024

   top 1%

   measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production

   Became: Too early to grade · 0 g

   College: Illinois '24 · TS 58.0 · BPM 10.5

   Wing84.0"vs84.0"Shuttle3.18svs3.21sReach106.5"vs107.0"Ht6'8"vs6'8"Agility11.76svs12.05sWeight226 lbvs215 lb¾ sprint3.44svs3.30sStd vert27.5"vs24.0"Max vert34.0"vs29.5"PORPAG4.1vs4.0AST%13.8vs14.6TS%61.5vs58.0USG%22.4vs18.4BPM14.2vs10.5
3. 3Ryan Kelly2013

   top 1%

   measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production

   Became: Rotation player · -0.5 career VORP · 163 g

   College: Duke '13 · TS 58.6 · BPM 10.0

   Weight226 lbvs228 lbWing84.0"vs83.5"Ht6'8"vs6'10"Reach106.5"vs110.0"PORPAG4.1vs4.4USG%22.4vs20.8AST%13.8vs11.0TS%61.5vs58.6BPM14.2vs10.0Age19.9vs22.2
4. 4TJ Leaf2017

   top 2%

   measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production

   Became: Rotation player · 0.1 career VORP · 146 g

   College: UCLA '17 · TS 66.0 · BPM 8.0

   Ht6'8"vs6'9"Max vert34.0"vs34.5"Weight226 lbvs222 lbReach106.5"vs107.0"Agility11.76svs11.55sWing84.0"vs83.0"Shuttle3.18svs3.27sStd vert27.5"vs29.0"¾ sprint3.44svs3.27sAST%13.8vs13.2USG%22.4vs21.5PORPAG4.1vs4.8TS%61.5vs66.0BPM14.2vs8.0
5. 5Jalen Smith2020

   top 2%

   measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production

   Became: Rotation player · 2.4 career VORP · 324 g

   College: Maryland '20 · TS 62.6 · BPM 9.7

   Weight226 lbvs225 lbHt6'8"vs6'9"Wing84.0"vs86.3"Reach106.5"vs110.0"USG%22.4vs22.6Age19.9vs20.3TS%61.5vs62.6PORPAG4.1vs5.0BPM14.2vs9.7AST%13.8vs6.1

How the closest comps turned out

Median outcome: Rotation — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.

The 15 nearest blended comps (1 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Graves.

via BartTorvik · percentiles vs B-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)

34 games· 22.6 mpg

per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position

Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.