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PF#23 of 32 bigs in 2026
Dillon Mitchell
Developmental big
St. John's·6'7" · 202lb·6'11" wing·8'9" reach·8.5" hand·22.7 yo at draft·Tampa
Undrafted/honor mention
ATH composite
64
NCAA dominance
73
Scoring
53
Playmaking
98
Defense
53
Shooting
57
Combine
Max vertical
38.5"p95
Lane agility
10.94sp93
¾ sprint
3.19sp89
Standing reach
104.5"p8
Draft score 25 out of 100, overall rank 70.
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionFloor GeneralAST 81st · low TOBall HawkSTL 81st · class
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classDevelopmental big. Carried by passing (81st); the question marks are rim protection (9th) and shot creation (16th).
StrengthsPassing81
WatchRim protection9Shot creation16
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
Outside the top 60
THE ONE has them at #70, below the two-round projection window.
Model vs the field
The One
#70
Field
#45
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Developmental big profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 98th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 73 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 45th across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#70▲ Riser · up 15
May 30 · #85Jul 27 · #70
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable25.1draft scoreboard #70
Market 62% · consensus 45th / 3 boardsModel 38% · ranked 93rd
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Mitchell 45th, our model 93rd. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 25-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%64
NCAA dominanceweight 40%73
Mock consensusweight 20%55
avg rank 45 across 3 boards
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 98th pct
- +5
Elite vertical
max vertical = 90th pct
- -4
Short wingspan for position
wingspan = 6th pct
- +4
Elite agility
lane agility = 91th pct
- +2
Consensus risers
latest consensus improved by 11 spots
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 29th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. B-bucket
7 of 7 drills measured
Wingspan
med 85.8"
82.5"
p7
Standing reach
med 108.0"
104.5"
p8
Max vertical
med 32.5"
38.5"
p95
Standing vert
med 28.5"
32.5"
p89
¾ sprint
med 3.33s
3.19s
p89
Lane agility
med 11.65s
10.94s
p93
Shuttle
med 3.10s
2.89s
p91
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionHeight
6'6.8"0
Wingspan diff
+3.8"26
Hand length
8.50"0
Hand width
9.75"39
Wingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionShooting & agility at the combine
Spot-up 3PT
6/25 · 24%0
Off-dribble 3PT
17/30 · 57%52
On-move 3PT
9/25 · 36%14
Modified agility
2.89s71
via stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · St. John's Red Storm36 / 100 two-way score
Offense
1.14 PPP17
Defense
0.98 allow24
Shot dieteFG 56%3PT rate 6%FT rate 4%
Mitchell's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs bigs · 2011–2024Closest NBA comparisons
Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Mitchell.
“Top X%” = closer to Mitchell than (100−X)% of all drafted bigs on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
- 1Andre Roberson2013top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 2.3 career VORP · 307 g
College: Colorado '13 · TS 52.4 · BPM 8.9
Reach104.5"vs104.5"Weight202 lbvs206 lbWing82.5"vs83.0"Max vert38.5"vs36.5"Shuttle2.89svs3.02sAgility10.94svs11.36sStd vert32.5"vs30.0"Ht6'7"vs6'6"¾ sprint3.19svs3.34sBPM9.9vs8.9PORPAG2.8vs2.3TS%55.5vs52.4Age22.7vs21.6USG%15.9vs20.4AST%18.8vs9.4 - 2Tristan Da Silva2024top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 0.4 career VORP · 151 g
College: Colorado '24 · TS 60.6 · BPM 6.3
Reach104.5"vs104.5"Wing82.5"vs82.3"Agility10.94svs10.81sHt6'7"vs6'8"Shuttle2.89svs3.00sWeight202 lbvs217 lbMax vert38.5"vs36.0"Std vert32.5"vs29.0"¾ sprint3.19svs3.00sAge22.7vs23.1PORPAG2.8vs4.2AST%18.8vs13.4BPM9.9vs6.3TS%55.5vs60.6USG%15.9vs21.2 - 3Kris Murray2023top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · -0.6 career VORP · 188 g
College: Iowa '23 · TS 57.2 · BPM 7.5
Ht6'7"vs6'8"Agility10.94svs11.11sWeight202 lbvs213 lbWing82.5"vs83.8"Reach104.5"vs106.0"¾ sprint3.19svs3.30sStd vert32.5"vs29.5"Max vert38.5"vs35.0"Age22.7vs22.9TS%55.5vs57.2BPM9.9vs7.5AST%18.8vs11.7PORPAG2.8vs5.6USG%15.9vs25.6 - 4Tyler Lydon2017top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production
Became: Fringe NBA · -0.1 career VORP · 26 g
College: Syracuse '17 · TS 59.7 · BPM 7.5
Ht6'7"vs6'8"Shuttle2.89svs2.81sWing82.5"vs84.0"Weight202 lbvs215 lbStd vert32.5"vs29.5"Reach104.5"vs107.5"Agility10.94svs11.68sMax vert38.5"vs33.5"¾ sprint3.19svs3.46sUSG%15.9vs18.0BPM9.9vs7.5PORPAG2.8vs4.1TS%55.5vs59.7AST%18.8vs10.8 - 5Malcolm Thomas2011top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Never reached the NBA · 0 g
College: San Diego St. '11 · TS 56.2 · BPM 8.5
Ht6'7"vs6'8"Std vert32.5"vs32.0"Max vert38.5"vs36.5"Agility10.94svs11.31s¾ sprint3.19svs3.29sWing82.5"vs84.5"Weight202 lbvs223 lbReach104.5"vs107.5"Age22.7vs22.6TS%55.5vs56.2PORPAG2.8vs3.3BPM9.9vs8.5AST%18.8vs14.1USG%15.9vs22.0
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
9/12 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
1 Star1 Starter6 Rotation1 Fringe3 Never reached NBA
Median outcome: Rotation — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Jalen Johnson2021
Star · 1× All-Star
Floor
Khem Birch2014
Never reached NBA
The 15 nearest blended comps (3 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Mitchell.
College teamSt. John'sBE#10 T-Rank30-7SOS elite schedule · top 3%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
St. John's· BE
37 games · 70% min
labeled PF/C
Efficiency
- TS%55.5%67
- eFG%56.1%76
- USG%15.9%41
- ORTG121.092
- AdjOE121.691
- RIM%65.7%61
Playmaking
- AST%18.8%96
- TO%12.7%78
Defense
- STL%2.6%94
- BLK%2.6%47
- DRTG90.891
- DBPM+6.096
Rebounding
- ORB%9.4%59
- DRB%18.0%64
Composite
- BPM+9.998
- OBPM+3.996
- PORPAG2.894
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs B-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position37 games· 28.1 mpg
Points
8.381
Rebounds
7.091
Assists
3.099
Steals
1.399
Blocks
0.776
ShootingFG 55.9%3PT 6.7%FT 49.4%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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