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PF/C#4 of 32 bigs in 2026· Projected R1
Morez Johnson Jr.
Rim-running big
Michigan·6'9" · 251lb·7'4" wing·8'11" reach·9.5" hand·20.4 yo at draft
LotteryOutlier
ATH composite
81
NCAA dominance
84
Scoring
87
Playmaking
74
Defense
65
Shooting
93
Combine
Max vertical
39.0"p96
Lane agility
10.59sp99
¾ sprint
3.17sp90
Standing reach
107.0"p34
Draft score 83 out of 100, overall rank 10, elite statistical outlier.
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionLockdownSynergy defense 87thEfficient ScorerSynergy offense 83rdSharpshootereFG 81st · classBouncy39.0" max vert · 81stTwo-WaySynergy two-way 68/100
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classRim-running big. Carried by perimeter defense (87th) and scoring efficiency (83rd); no glaring statistical hole.
StrengthsPerimeter defense87Scoring efficiency83
Why this rank
Editorial pin
Our scouting call slots Jr. at #10 — the deterministic model alone had Jr. at #14.
Outlier
Elite draft-score outlier in the 2026 class
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
#10
Milwaukee Bucks
1st roundModel vs the field
The One
#10
Field
#15
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Rim-running big profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 99th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 84 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 15th across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#10▲ Riser · up 8
May 30 · #18Jul 27 · #10
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable82.7draft scoreboard #10
Market 62% · consensus 15th / 3 boardsModel 38% · ranked 9th
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Jr. 15th, our model 9th. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 83-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%81
NCAA dominanceweight 40%84
Mock consensusweight 20%85
avg rank 15 across 3 boards
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 99th pct
- +5
Elite vertical
max vertical = 92th pct
- +5
High usage + efficient
USG and TS percentiles both clear the v1 trigger
- +4
Elite agility
lane agility = 98th pct
- +3
Plus wingspan
wingspan 87.5 = 76th pct
- +2
Young for class
age 20.4 at draft; class median 22.4
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 62th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. B-bucket
7 of 7 drills measured
Wingspan
med 85.8"
87.5"
p75
Standing reach
med 108.0"
107.0"
p34
Max vertical
med 32.5"
39.0"
p96
Standing vert
med 28.5"
33.5"
p94
¾ sprint
med 3.33s
3.17s
p90
Lane agility
med 11.65s
10.59s
p99
Shuttle
med 3.10s
2.91s
p89
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionHeight
6'9"43
Wingspan diff
+6.5"74
Hand length
9.50"87
Hand width
10.00"61
Wingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionShooting & agility at the combine
Spot-up 3PT
9/25 · 36%14
Off-dribble 3PT
15/30 · 50%33
On-move 3PT
17/25 · 68%95
Modified agility
2.91s57
via stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · Michigan Wolverines68 / 100 two-way score
Offense
1.34 PPP83
Defense
0.83 allow87
Shot dieteFG 64%3PT rate 12%FT rate 7%
Jr.'s offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs bigs · 2016–2020Closest NBA comparisons
Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Jr..
“Top X%” = closer to Jr. than (100−X)% of all drafted bigs on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
- 1Jaren Jackson2018top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 4 of 4 production
Became: Star · 2× All-Star · 9.2 career VORP · 455 g
College: Michigan St. '18 · TS 64.7 · BPM 12.8
Ht6'9"vs6'10"Weight251 lbvs236 lbWing87.5"vs89.3"Reach107.0"vs110.0"AST%8.4vs9.3BPM11.4vs12.8USG%21.1vs22.8TS%67.7vs64.7 - 2Wendell Carter2018top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production
Became: Starter · 5.3 career VORP · 461 g
College: Duke '18 · TS 62.8 · BPM 11.6
Weight251 lbvs251 lbWing87.5"vs88.5"Ht6'9"vs6'9"Reach107.0"vs109.0"BPM11.4vs11.6USG%21.1vs23.4Age20.4vs19.2AST%8.4vs13.0TS%67.7vs62.8 - 3Deyonta Davis2016top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 0.0 career VORP · 107 g
College: Michigan St. '16 · TS 60.1 · BPM 9.2
Ht6'9"vs6'9"Wing87.5"vs86.5"Reach107.0"vs108.5"Weight251 lbvs237 lbAST%8.4vs7.5Age20.4vs19.6USG%21.1vs18.5BPM11.4vs9.2PORPAG4.3vs2.2TS%67.7vs60.1 - 4Bruno Fernando2019top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · -0.6 career VORP · 220 g
College: Maryland '19 · TS 65.3 · BPM 9.9
Wing87.5"vs87.3"¾ sprint3.17svs3.21sShuttle2.91svs3.05sWeight251 lbvs237 lbHt6'9"vs6'9"Reach107.0"vs110.0"Agility10.59svs11.29sStd vert33.5"vs29.5"Max vert39.0"vs33.5"PORPAG4.3vs4.1Age20.4vs20.9BPM11.4vs9.9TS%67.7vs65.3USG%21.1vs23.8AST%8.4vs14.5 - 5Zeke Nnaji2020top 3%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · -0.7 career VORP · 303 g
College: Arizona '20 · TS 63.0 · BPM 5.4
Std vert33.5"vs33.0"Weight251 lbvs247 lb¾ sprint3.17svs3.20sMax vert39.0"vs38.0"Ht6'9"vs6'9"Reach107.0"vs105.5"Agility10.59svs10.94sWing87.5"vs86.0"Shuttle2.91svs2.72sPORPAG4.3vs4.4AST%8.4vs5.8Age20.4vs19.5USG%21.1vs24.1TS%67.7vs63.0BPM11.4vs5.4
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
13/13 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
1 Star4 Starter6 Rotation2 Fringe
Median outcome: Rotation — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Jaren Jackson2018
Star · 2× All-Star
Floor
D.J. Wilson2017
Fringe · -0.2 VORP
The 15 nearest blended comps (2 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Jr..
College teamMichiganB10#1 T-Rank37-3SOS elite schedule · top 1%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
Michigan· B10
40 games · 63% min
labeled PF/C
Efficiency
- TS%67.7%95
- eFG%64.2%92
- USG%21.1%74
- ORTG131.196
- AdjOE142.498
- RIM%72.9%86
Playmaking
- AST%8.4%73
- TO%14.0%73
Defense
- STL%1.5%68
- BLK%4.8%72
- DRTG86.496
- DBPM+5.395
Rebounding
- ORB%12.8%85
- DRB%18.9%70
Composite
- BPM+11.499
- OBPM+6.198
- PORPAG4.399
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs B-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position40 games· 25.1 mpg
Points
13.194
Rebounds
7.393
Assists
1.289
Steals
0.787
Blocks
1.188
ShootingFG 62.3%3PT 34.3%FT 78.2%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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