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C#18 of 32 bigs in 2026· Projected R2
Rafael Castro
Skilled big
George Washington·6'9" · 224lb·7'1" wing·9'2" reach·9.0" hand·23.2 yo at draft
Late 2nd
ATH composite
66
NCAA dominance
90
Scoring
88
Playmaking
88
Defense
93
Shooting
87
Combine
Max vertical
36.5"p84
Lane agility
11.42sp67
¾ sprint
3.20sp87
Standing reach
109.5"p70
Draft score 38 out of 100, overall rank 54.
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionBall HawkSTL 94th · classGlass CleanerDRB 94th · classRim ProtectorBLK 84th · classEfficient ScorerSynergy offense 76thBucket-GetterUSG 72nd · efficient
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classSkilled big. Carried by rebounding (94th) and rim protection (84th); the question mark is perimeter defense (20th).
StrengthsRebounding94Rim protection84
WatchPerimeter defense20
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
#54
Golden State Warriors
2nd roundModel vs the field
The One
#54
Field
#58
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Skilled big profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 97th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 90 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 58th across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#54▼ Faller · down 12
May 30 · #42Jul 27 · #54
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable38.0draft scoreboard #54
Market 62% · consensus 58th / 3 boardsModel 38% · ranked 13th
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Castro 58th, our model 13th. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 38-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%66
NCAA dominanceweight 40%90
Mock consensusweight 20%42
avg rank 58 across 3 boards
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 97th pct
- +5
High usage + efficient
USG and TS percentiles both clear the v1 trigger
- +3
Defensive impact
STL% + BLK% = 93th pct
- -2
Consensus fallers
latest consensus slipped by 14 spots
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 67th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. B-bucket
7 of 7 drills measured
Wingspan
med 85.8"
85.3"
p40
Standing reach
med 108.0"
109.5"
p70
Max vertical
med 32.5"
36.5"
p84
Standing vert
med 28.5"
31.0"
p78
¾ sprint
med 3.33s
3.20s
p87
Lane agility
med 11.65s
11.42s
p67
Shuttle
med 3.10s
2.93s
p87
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionHeight
6'9"43
Wingspan diff
+4.3"39
Hand length
9.00"26
Hand width
9.00"0
Wingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionShooting & agility at the combine
Modified agility
2.93s48
via stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · George Washington Revolutionaries53 / 100 two-way score
Offense
1.29 PPP76
Defense
1.02 allow20
Shot dieteFG 62%3PT rate 0%FT rate 9%
Castro's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs bigs · 2010–2020Closest NBA comparisons
Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Castro.
“Top X%” = closer to Castro than (100−X)% of all drafted bigs on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
- 1Ryan Kelly2013top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · -0.5 career VORP · 163 g
College: Duke '13 · TS 58.6 · BPM 10.0
Ht6'9"vs6'10"Weight224 lbvs228 lbReach109.5"vs110.0"Wing85.3"vs83.5"BPM9.5vs10.0AST%12.7vs11.0PORPAG3.7vs4.4Age23.2vs22.2USG%24.7vs20.8TS%64.7vs58.6 - 2Ed Davis2010top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Starter · 6.2 career VORP · 722 g
College: North Carolina '10 · TS 60.7 · BPM 7.5
Std vert31.0"vs31.0"¾ sprint3.20svs3.21sWeight224 lbvs227 lbMax vert36.5"vs36.0"Agility11.42svs11.70sWing85.3"vs84.0"Ht6'9"vs6'9"Reach109.5"vs108.0"PORPAG3.7vs3.1BPM9.5vs7.5USG%24.7vs21.5TS%64.7vs60.7AST%12.7vs6.8Age23.2vs21.1 - 3Brice Johnson2016top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Fringe NBA · 0.0 career VORP · 21 g
College: North Carolina '16 · TS 64.9 · BPM 11.3
¾ sprint3.20svs3.20sShuttle2.93svs2.94sWing85.3"vs84.5"Max vert36.5"vs38.0"Ht6'9"vs6'9"Agility11.42svs11.88sWeight224 lbvs209 lbStd vert31.0"vs33.5"Reach109.5"vs106.5"USG%24.7vs24.5TS%64.7vs64.9BPM9.5vs11.3AST%12.7vs9.7Age23.2vs22.0PORPAG3.7vs5.1 - 4Jalen Smith2020top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 2.4 career VORP · 324 g
College: Maryland '20 · TS 62.6 · BPM 9.7
Weight224 lbvs225 lbReach109.5"vs110.0"Ht6'9"vs6'9"Wing85.3"vs86.3"BPM9.5vs9.7TS%64.7vs62.6USG%24.7vs22.6PORPAG3.7vs5.0AST%12.7vs6.1Age23.2vs20.3 - 5Mason Plumlee2013top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Starter · 15.2 career VORP · 880 g
College: Duke '13 · TS 62.8 · BPM 8.6
Max vert36.5"vs36.0"Std vert31.0"vs30.5"Reach109.5"vs108.0"¾ sprint3.20svs3.29sWeight224 lbvs238 lbHt6'9"vs6'11"Shuttle2.93svs2.76sAgility11.42svs10.89sWing85.3"vs83.0"Age23.2vs23.3USG%24.7vs25.1AST%12.7vs11.5BPM9.5vs8.6TS%64.7vs62.8PORPAG3.7vs4.9
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
13/13 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
3 Starter7 Rotation3 Fringe
Median outcome: Rotation — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Mason Plumlee2013
Starter · 15.2 VORP
Floor
Arnett Moultrie2012
Fringe · -0.1 VORP
The 15 nearest blended comps (2 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Castro.
College teamGeorge WashingtonA10#82 T-Rank19-16SOS tough schedule · top 30%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
George Washington· A10
28 games · 57% min
labeled C
Efficiency
- TS%64.7%93
- eFG%62.8%91
- USG%24.7%89
- ORTG122.493
- AdjOE131.296
- RIM%64.6%56
Playmaking
- AST%12.7%89
- TO%16.0%64
Defense
- STL%3.5%98
- BLK%7.9%90
- DRTG96.576
- DBPM+6.297
Rebounding
- ORB%11.8%79
- DRB%26.3%93
Composite
- BPM+9.598
- OBPM+3.294
- PORPAG3.797
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs B-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position28 games· 27.3 mpg
Points
15.397
Rebounds
9.197
Assists
1.795
Steals
1.899
Blocks
1.796
ShootingFG 62.8%3PT 0.0%FT 66.1%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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