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SF/PF#11 of 32 wings in 2026· Projected R2
Alex Karaban
Developmental wing
UConn·6'7" · 225lb·6'11" wing·8'9" reach·8.5" hand·23.6 yo at draft
Early 2nd
ATH composite
38
NCAA dominance
80
Scoring
68
Playmaking
84
Defense
78
Shooting
81
Combine
Max vertical
33.0"p26
Lane agility
11.19sp58
¾ sprint
3.28sp44
Standing reach
104.5"p49
Draft score 58 out of 100, overall rank 32.
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionLockdownSynergy defense 93rdFloor Spacer50% 3PT rate · 56% eFGTwo-WaySynergy two-way 62/100
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classDevelopmental wing. Carried by perimeter defense (93rd) and rim protection (73rd); the question marks are shot creation (10th) and passing (23rd).
StrengthsPerimeter defense93Rim protection73
WatchShot creation10Passing23
Why this rank
Editorial pin
Our scouting call slots Karaban at #32 — the deterministic model alone had Karaban at #38.
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
#32
Memphis Grizzlies
2nd roundModel vs the field
The One
#32
Field
#35
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Developmental wing profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 99th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 80 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 35th across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#32▲ Riser · up 22
May 30 · #54Jul 27 · #32
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable57.9draft scoreboard #32
Market 62% · consensus 35th / 3 boardsModel 38% · ranked 49th
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Karaban 35th, our model 49th. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 58-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%38
NCAA dominanceweight 40%80
Mock consensusweight 20%65
avg rank 35 across 3 boards
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 99th pct
- -3
Heavy-legged
max vertical = 15th pct
- +2
Consensus risers
latest consensus improved by 9 spots
- -2
Older for class
age 23.6 at draft; class median 22.4
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 54th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. W-bucket
7 of 7 drills measured
Wingspan
med 83.0"
83.0"
p49
Standing reach
med 104.5"
104.5"
p49
Max vertical
med 35.0"
33.0"
p26
Standing vert
med 29.5"
28.0"
p30
¾ sprint
med 3.25s
3.28s
p44
Lane agility
med 11.29s
11.19s
p58
Shuttle
med 3.04s
3.01s
p55
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionHeight
6'6.8"61
Wingspan diff
+4.3"56
Hand length
8.50"11
Hand width
9.50"44
Wingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionShooting & agility at the combine
Spot-up 3PT
17/25 · 68%80
Off-dribble 3PT
21/30 · 70%33
On-move 3PT
18/25 · 72%87
Modified agility
3.01s35
via stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · Connecticut Huskies62 / 100 two-way score
Offense
1.14 PPP59
Defense
0.80 allow93
Shot dieteFG 56%3PT rate 50%FT rate 1%
Karaban's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs wings · 2011–2021Closest NBA comparisons
Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Karaban.
“Top X%” = closer to Karaban than (100−X)% of all drafted wings on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
- 1Chandler Parsons2011top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Starter · 10.2 career VORP · 440 g
College: Florida '11 · TS 55.1 · BPM 8.5
Reach104.5"vs104.5"¾ sprint3.28svs3.29sWeight225 lbvs221 lbAgility11.19svs11.05sMax vert33.0"vs31.5"Wing83.0"vs81.5"Ht6'7"vs6'9"Std vert28.0"vs25.5"BPM8.8vs8.5USG%17.6vs20.1Age23.6vs22.7PORPAG4.4vs3.4TS%59.0vs55.1AST%12.4vs21.6 - 2James Southerland2013top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Never reached the NBA · 0 g
College: Syracuse '13 · TS 58.6 · BPM 9.6
Shuttle3.01svs3.03sMax vert33.0"vs32.0"Std vert28.0"vs29.0"Weight225 lbvs221 lbHt6'7"vs6'7"Agility11.19svs10.90sReach104.5"vs106.0"¾ sprint3.28svs3.38sWing83.0"vs85.0"TS%59.0vs58.6BPM8.8vs9.6PORPAG4.4vs4.0Age23.6vs23.2USG%17.6vs19.2AST%12.4vs7.7 - 3Kyle Singler2011top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · -0.9 career VORP · 356 g
College: Duke '11 · TS 53.6 · BPM 5.8
Agility11.19svs11.22sHt6'7"vs6'8"Weight225 lbvs228 lbWing83.0"vs82.1"¾ sprint3.28svs3.21sReach104.5"vs106.0"Max vert33.0"vs30.0"Std vert28.0"vs23.0"PORPAG4.4vs4.5Age23.6vs23.1AST%12.4vs8.8BPM8.8vs5.8TS%59.0vs53.6USG%17.6vs23.5 - 4Sam Dekker2015top 3%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 0.5 career VORP · 201 g
College: Wisconsin '15 · TS 60.5 · BPM 9.0
Ht6'7"vs6'8"¾ sprint3.28svs3.28sWing83.0"vs83.5"Shuttle3.01svs2.96sMax vert33.0"vs34.5"Weight225 lbvs219 lbReach104.5"vs106.0"Std vert28.0"vs25.5"Agility11.19svs10.64sBPM8.8vs9.0TS%59.0vs60.5AST%12.4vs8.6PORPAG4.4vs5.4USG%17.6vs22.4Age23.6vs21.1 - 5Sam Hauser2021top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Never reached the NBA · 0 g
College: Virginia '21 · TS 63.5 · BPM 7.5
Agility11.19svs11.14sStd vert28.0"vs28.5"Shuttle3.01svs3.07sMax vert33.0"vs34.5"¾ sprint3.28svs3.34sWeight225 lbvs217 lbHt6'7"vs6'7"Wing83.0"vs81.3"Reach104.5"vs102.0"Age23.6vs23.6AST%12.4vs11.6BPM8.8vs7.5PORPAG4.4vs5.4TS%59.0vs63.5USG%17.6vs22.2
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
10/14 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
1 Star2 Starter4 Rotation3 Fringe4 Never reached NBA
Median outcome: Fringe — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Paul George2010
Star · 9× All-Star
Floor
Dorian Finney-Smith2016
Never reached NBA
The 15 nearest blended comps (1 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Karaban.
College teamConnecticutBE#9 T-Rank34-6SOS elite schedule · top 5%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
Connecticut· BE
40 games · 85% min
labeled Wing F
Name match to Connecticut, prospect card says UConn — possible mid-season transfer or stale label.
Efficiency
- TS%59.0%85
- eFG%55.9%84
- USG%17.6%46
- ORTG125.696
- AdjOE129.398
- RIM%62.8%67
Playmaking
- AST%12.4%76
- TO%10.8%88
Defense
- STL%1.5%39
- BLK%2.8%91
- DRTG95.288
- DBPM+3.597
Rebounding
- ORB%6.4%73
- DRB%11.8%42
Composite
- BPM+8.899
- OBPM+5.398
- PORPAG4.498
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs W-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position40 games· 34.3 mpg
Points
13.288
Rebounds
5.387
Assists
2.494
Steals
0.873
Blocks
0.897
ShootingFG 46.4%3PT 37.4%FT 85.1%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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