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SG/SF#18 of 40 guards in 2026· Projected R2
Otega Oweh
Developmental guard
Kentucky·6'4" · 216lb·6'8" wing·8'5" reach·8.0" hand·23.0 yo at draft
Late 2nd
ATH composite
56
NCAA dominance
82
Scoring
78
Playmaking
74
Defense
85
Shooting
68
Combine
Max vertical
37.0"p62
Lane agility
11.20sp40
¾ sprint
3.17sp68
Standing reach
101.0"p63
Draft score 43 out of 100, overall rank 48.
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionPlus Length6'8.3" wing · 90thBall HawkSTL 83rd · class
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classDevelopmental guard. Carried by rebounding (80th) and shot creation (74th); the question marks are scoring efficiency (14th) and passing (26th).
StrengthsRebounding80Shot creation74
WatchScoring efficiency14Passing26
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
#48
Dallas Mavericks
2nd roundModel vs the field
The One
#48
Field
#51
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Developmental guard profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 94th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 82 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 51st across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#48▲ Riser · up 5
May 30 · #53Jul 27 · #48
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable43.2draft scoreboard #48
Market 62% · consensus 51st / 3 boardsModel 38% · ranked 44th
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Oweh 51st, our model 44th. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 43-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%56
NCAA dominanceweight 40%82
Mock consensusweight 20%49
avg rank 51 across 3 boards
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 94th pct
- +5
High usage + efficient
USG and TS percentiles both clear the v1 trigger
- +3
Defensive impact
STL% + BLK% = 85th pct
- -2
Consensus fallers
latest consensus slipped by 13 spots
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 53th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. G-bucket
7 of 7 drills measured
Wingspan
med 79.3"
80.3"
p62
Standing reach
med 99.5"
101.0"
p63
Max vertical
med 35.5"
37.0"
p62
Standing vert
med 30.0"
31.0"
p63
¾ sprint
med 3.21s
3.17s
p68
Lane agility
med 11.09s
11.20s
p40
Shuttle
med 3.05s
2.86s
p89
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionHeight
6'4.3"85
Wingspan diff
+4.0"50
Hand length
8.00"0
Hand width
9.50"75
Wingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionShooting & agility at the combine
Spot-up 3PT
12/25 · 48%16
Off-dribble 3PT
23/30 · 77%53
On-move 3PT
12/25 · 48%16
Modified agility
2.86s84
via stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · Kentucky Wildcats37 / 100 two-way score
Offense
1.03 PPP14
Defense
0.91 allow60
Shot dieteFG 50%3PT rate 27%FT rate 4%
Oweh's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs guards · 2016–2025Closest NBA comparisons
Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Oweh.
“Top X%” = closer to Oweh than (100−X)% of all drafted guards on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
- 1Otega Oweh2025top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · 0 g
College: Kentucky '25 · TS 57.7 · BPM 5.8
Wing80.3"vs80.5"Shuttle2.86svs2.90sReach101.0"vs101.5"Weight216 lbvs213 lb¾ sprint3.17svs3.20sHt6'4"vs6'4"Max vert37.0"vs35.0"Agility11.20svs10.90sStd vert31.0"vs27.5"PORPAG3.9vs3.9BPM4.8vs5.8USG%27.1vs25.4TS%55.4vs57.7AST%16.3vs11.3Age23.0vs22.0 - 2Dwayne Bacon2017top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · -3.1 career VORP · 207 g
College: Florida St. '17 · TS 54.4 · BPM 2.9
Max vert37.0"vs36.5"Ht6'4"vs6'5"Weight216 lbvs222 lbStd vert31.0"vs30.0"¾ sprint3.17svs3.22sWing80.3"vs82.0"Reach101.0"vs103.5"Agility11.20svs11.70sShuttle2.86svs3.22sUSG%27.1vs27.4TS%55.4vs54.4PORPAG3.9vs3.5AST%16.3vs11.6BPM4.8vs2.9Age23.0vs21.8 - 3Chaz Lanier2025top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · -0.2 career VORP · 34 g
College: Tennessee '25 · TS 56.0 · BPM 4.5
Reach101.0"vs101.5"Wing80.3"vs81.0"Agility11.20svs11.00sShuttle2.86svs3.00sMax vert37.0"vs39.0"Weight216 lbvs206 lbHt6'4"vs6'4"Std vert31.0"vs33.0"¾ sprint3.17svs3.00sBPM4.8vs4.5TS%55.4vs56.0PORPAG3.9vs4.3Age23.0vs23.5USG%27.1vs24.9AST%16.3vs7.8 - 4Michael Gbinije2016top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Fringe NBA · -0.1 career VORP · 9 g
College: Syracuse '16 · TS 57.4 · BPM 6.8
Reach101.0"vs101.0"Ht6'4"vs6'6"Max vert37.0"vs37.5"Wing80.3"vs79.5"¾ sprint3.17svs3.12sAgility11.20svs11.00sWeight216 lbvs205 lbStd vert31.0"vs33.5"Shuttle2.86svs3.19sTS%55.4vs57.4USG%27.1vs24.8PORPAG3.9vs4.6BPM4.8vs6.8Age23.0vs24.1AST%16.3vs26.5 - 5Dillon Brooks2017top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · -5.2 career VORP · 548 g
College: Oregon '17 · TS 58.2 · BPM 6.4
Std vert31.0"vs31.0"Ht6'4"vs6'5"Agility11.20svs11.14sMax vert37.0"vs37.5"Reach101.0"vs100.5"Weight216 lbvs220 lb¾ sprint3.17svs3.21sWing80.3"vs78.0"Shuttle2.86svs3.24sPORPAG3.9vs3.9BPM4.8vs6.4TS%55.4vs58.2USG%27.1vs30.1AST%16.3vs23.0Age23.0vs21.4
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
9/11 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
1 Starter5 Rotation3 Fringe2 Never reached NBA
Median outcome: Rotation — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Tim Hardaway Jr.2013
Starter · 5.2 VORP
Floor
David Duke Jr.2021
Never reached NBA
The 15 nearest blended comps (4 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Oweh.
College teamKentuckySEC#29 T-Rank22-14SOS elite schedule · top 4%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
Kentucky· SEC
36 games · 82% min
labeled Combo G
Efficiency
- TS%55.4%75
- eFG%51.0%72
- USG%27.1%91
- ORTG111.282
- AdjOE126.695
- RIM%64.0%89
Playmaking
- AST%16.3%47
- TO%13.3%81
Defense
- STL%3.1%80
- BLK%0.9%81
- DRTG97.084
- DBPM+1.990
Rebounding
- ORB%3.3%83
- DRB%12.9%89
Composite
- BPM+4.891
- OBPM+2.984
- PORPAG3.995
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs G-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position36 games· 32.7 mpg
Points
18.697
Rebounds
4.897
Assists
2.771
Steals
1.895
Blocks
0.388
ShootingFG 46.5%3PT 33.3%FT 73.1%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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