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SG#6 of 32 wings in 2026· Projected R1
Isaiah Evans
Two-way wing
Duke·6'6" · 186lb·6'9" wing·8'9" reach·8.5" hand·20.5 yo at draft
1st-round non-lottery
ATH composite
38
NCAA dominance
75
Scoring
79
Playmaking
58
Defense
80
Shooting
80
Combine
Max vertical
35.5"p52
Lane agility
11.87sp14
¾ sprint
3.18sp72
Standing reach
104.5"p49
Draft score 69 out of 100, overall rank 21.
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionLockdownSynergy defense 99thRim ProtectorBLK 80th · classFloor Spacer65% 3PT rate · 55% eFGTwo-WaySynergy two-way 63/100
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classTwo-way wing. Carried by perimeter defense (99th) and rim protection (80th); the question marks are rebounding (3rd) and passing (10th).
StrengthsPerimeter defense99Rim protection80
WatchRebounding3Passing10
Why this rank
Editorial pin
Our scouting call slots Evans at #21 — the deterministic model alone had Evans at #31.
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
#21
Detroit Pistons
1st roundModel vs the field
The One
#21
Field
#23
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Two-way wing profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 97th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 75 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 23rd across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#21▲ Riser · up 29
May 30 · #50Jul 27 · #21
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable69.3draft scoreboard #21
Market 62% · consensus 23rd / 3 boardsModel 38% · ranked 46th
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Evans 23rd, our model 46th. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 69-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%38
NCAA dominanceweight 40%75
Mock consensusweight 20%77
avg rank 23 across 3 boards
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 97th pct
- +5
High usage + efficient
USG and TS percentiles both clear the v1 trigger
- -4
Short wingspan for position
wingspan = 16th pct
- +2
Young for class
age 20.5 at draft; class median 22.4
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 46th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. W-bucket
7 of 7 drills measured
Wingspan
med 83.0"
80.8"
p15
Standing reach
med 104.5"
104.5"
p49
Max vertical
med 35.0"
35.5"
p52
Standing vert
med 29.5"
27.0"
p17
¾ sprint
med 3.25s
3.18s
p72
Lane agility
med 11.29s
11.87s
p14
Shuttle
med 3.04s
2.89s
p85
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionHeight
6'5.5"28
Wingspan diff
+3.3"22
Hand length
8.50"11
Hand width
9.00"6
Wingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionShooting & agility at the combine
Spot-up 3PT
14/25 · 56%20
Off-dribble 3PT
21/30 · 70%33
On-move 3PT
17/25 · 68%73
Modified agility
2.89s65
via stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · Duke Blue Devils63 / 100 two-way score
Offense
1.12 PPP57
Defense
0.72 allow99
Shot dieteFG 55%3PT rate 65%FT rate 3%
Evans's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs wings · 2011–2025Closest NBA comparisons
Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Evans.
“Top X%” = closer to Evans than (100−X)% of all drafted wings on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
- 1Tyler Honeycutt2011top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production
Became: Fringe NBA · -0.1 career VORP · 24 g
College: UCLA '11 · TS 51.9 · BPM 6.5
Weight186 lbvs187 lbWing80.8"vs81.0"Ht6'6"vs6'7"Reach104.5"vs105.0"Agility11.87svs11.68sMax vert35.5"vs37.0"¾ sprint3.18svs3.07sStd vert27.0"vs30.0"BPM6.5vs6.5USG%21.8vs21.7PORPAG3.9vs2.1TS%59.0vs51.9AST%8.4vs16.8 - 2Johnny Furphy2024top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · -0.3 career VORP · 85 g
College: Kansas '24 · TS 61.4 · BPM 6.5
Reach104.5"vs104.5"Weight186 lbvs189 lbStd vert27.0"vs26.0"Wing80.8"vs80.0"Shuttle2.89svs3.00sHt6'6"vs6'8"Max vert35.5"vs32.0"¾ sprint3.18svs3.00sAgility11.87svs11.15sBPM6.5vs6.5AST%8.4vs7.1TS%59.0vs61.4Age20.5vs19.6PORPAG3.9vs2.6USG%21.8vs17.0 - 3Dylan Windler2019top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 0.2 career VORP · 101 g
College: Belmont '19 · TS 68.0 · BPM 8.9
Reach104.5"vs104.5"Ht6'6"vs6'6"Shuttle2.89svs2.94sMax vert35.5"vs37.5"Wing80.8"vs82.0"Std vert27.0"vs29.0"Weight186 lbvs196 lb¾ sprint3.18svs3.30sAgility11.87svs10.70sUSG%21.8vs24.7BPM6.5vs8.9AST%8.4vs13.4PORPAG3.9vs5.3Age20.5vs22.8TS%59.0vs68.0 - 4Will Riley2025top 4%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · -1.0 career VORP · 74 g
College: Illinois '25 · TS 53.3 · BPM 4.6
Wing80.8"vs80.8"Weight186 lbvs186 lb¾ sprint3.18svs3.20sStd vert27.0"vs27.5"Reach104.5"vs104.0"Agility11.87svs11.70sMax vert35.5"vs32.0"Shuttle2.89svs3.10sHt6'6"vs6'8"USG%21.8vs23.0PORPAG3.9vs3.3BPM6.5vs4.6TS%59.0vs53.3AST%8.4vs16.0 - 5Jaylen Wells2024top 4%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · -0.6 career VORP · 148 g
College: Washington St. '24 · TS 58.4 · BPM 5.2
Ht6'6"vs6'7"Max vert35.5"vs36.0"Std vert27.0"vs27.5"Reach104.5"vs103.5"Wing80.8"vs79.3"Shuttle2.89svs3.03s¾ sprint3.18svs3.08sAgility11.87svs11.28sWeight186 lbvs206 lbPORPAG3.9vs4.0AST%8.4vs7.9TS%59.0vs58.4Age20.5vs20.8BPM6.5vs5.2USG%21.8vs18.9
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
8/10 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
1 Star4 Rotation3 Fringe2 Never reached NBA
Median outcome: Fringe — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Gordon Hayward2010
Star · 1× All-Star
Floor
Kenrich Williams2018
Never reached NBA
The 15 nearest blended comps (5 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Evans.
College teamDukeACC#3 T-Rank35-3SOS elite schedule · top 4%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
Duke· ACC
38 games · 71% min
labeled Wing G
Efficiency
- TS%59.0%85
- eFG%55.0%81
- USG%21.8%75
- ORTG122.495
- AdjOE132.798
- RIM%68.9%86
Playmaking
- AST%8.4%46
- TO%11.0%87
Defense
- STL%1.5%39
- BLK%2.9%91
- DRTG92.294
- DBPM+2.390
Rebounding
- ORB%1.7%14
- DRB%10.7%32
Composite
- BPM+6.597
- OBPM+4.296
- PORPAG3.997
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs W-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position38 games· 28.2 mpg
Points
15.093
Rebounds
3.258
Assists
1.370
Steals
0.765
Blocks
0.794
ShootingFG 43.3%3PT 36.1%FT 86.0%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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