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NBA·Model picks

Tonight's
model picks.

NBA pre-game win probability for every game on tonight's slate, computed from a rolling Elo rating that updates after every final. The MLB version of this model back-tested at 55% on 2,932 games. The methodology page has the receipts.

MLBEnd 2
CHW 1@NYY 1
-1.2pphigh
MLBBot 1
SF 1@ATL 1
-2.9ppmedium
MLBTop 3
TOR 1@BOS 0
-24.4pphigh
MLBBot 4
KC 0@WSH 2
+36.3pplow
MLBTop 2
NYM 0@CIN 4
+45.5pplow
MLBEnd 3
MIA 0@PHI 7
+43.3pplow
WNBA7:27 - 2nd
TOR 30@IND 34
+1.7ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RHP Daniel Palencia on the 15-day IL (Jun 16)
MLBEnd 2
CHW 1@NYY 1
-1.2pphigh
MLBBot 1
SF 1@ATL 1
-2.9ppmedium
MLBTop 3
TOR 1@BOS 0
-24.4pphigh
MLBBot 4
KC 0@WSH 2
+36.3pplow
MLBTop 2
NYM 0@CIN 4
+45.5pplow
MLBEnd 3
MIA 0@PHI 7
+43.3pplow
WNBA7:27 - 2nd
TOR 30@IND 34
+1.7ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBC. Keith (DET): 3 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. May (STL): 9.0 IP · 9 K in a win over SD — Standout Index 95
LAST NIGHT · MLBE. Suarez (CIN): 2 H · 2 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Placed RHP Brad Keller on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 14 (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBDodgers: Designated 3B Santiago Espinal for assignment (Jun 16)
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RHP Daniel Palencia on the 15-day IL (Jun 16)

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 62-35
61%Last 30 · 299-189
Receipts →

NBA accuracy · last 30

Recent model grading

See receipts →

Last 30

62.5%

16 games

Tonight · 0 games

Sorted by model edge

Locks ★ first · then edges · then leans · tossups last

Show our work →

No NBA games on the board today. The model is resting too — check back tomorrow.

← Back to NBA hub

Power ratings · Elo

Best + worst teams in nba

Top 5

  1. 1NY

    Knicks

    31-1

    1732Elo
  2. 2OKC

    Thunder

    26-9

    1610Elo
  3. 3CHA

    Hornets

    0-0

    1500Elo
  4. 4CHI

    Bulls

    0-0

    1500Elo
  5. 5DAL

    Mavericks

    0-0

    1500Elo

Bottom 5

  1. 1CLE

    Cavaliers

    14-27

    1429Elo
  2. 2DET

    Pistons

    9-13

    1441Elo
  3. 3MIN

    Timberwolves

    3-7

    1451Elo
  4. 4LAL

    Lakers

    1-5

    1466Elo
  5. 5BOS

    Celtics

    0-3

    1469Elo

How the model works

One Elo rating per team, updated after every game

Same Elo skeleton for every league: K-factor tuned to the schedule density, league-specific home advantage, off-season regression to the mean. NBA ratings update after every final score and feed straight into the win-probability column you see above.

Full methodology →