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SF/PF#10 of 32 wings in 2026· Projected R1
Joshua Jefferson
Two-way wing
Iowa State·6'8" · 246lb·6'11" wing·8'9" reach·9.0" hand·22.6 yo at draft
1st-round non-lottery
ATH composite
26
NCAA dominance
91
Scoring
78
Playmaking
100
Defense
96
Shooting
65
Combine
Max vertical
33.0"p26
Lane agility
11.91sp13
¾ sprint
3.42sp10
Standing reach
104.5"p49
Draft score 62 out of 100, overall rank 28.
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionGlass CleanerDRB 93rd · classElite ProducerBPM 93rd · classBall HawkSTL 87th · classRim ProtectorBLK 83rd · class
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classTwo-way wing. Carried by passing (97th) and rebounding (93rd); no glaring statistical hole.
StrengthsPassing97Rebounding93
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
#28
Minnesota Timberwolves
1st roundModel vs the field
The One
#28
Field
#28
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Two-way wing profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 100th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 91 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 28th across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#28▼ Faller · down 6
May 30 · #22Jul 27 · #28
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable61.9draft scoreboard #28
Market 62% · consensus 28th / 3 boardsModel 38% · ranked 11th
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Jefferson 28th, our model 11th. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 62-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%26
NCAA dominanceweight 40%91
Mock consensusweight 20%72
avg rank 28 across 3 boards
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 100th pct
- +5
High usage + efficient
USG and TS percentiles both clear the v1 trigger
- -4
Slow first step
sprint = 6th pct
- -3
Heavy-legged
max vertical = 15th pct
- +3
Defensive impact
STL% + BLK% = 96th pct
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 77th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. W-bucket
7 of 7 drills measured
Wingspan
med 83.0"
82.8"
p45
Standing reach
med 104.5"
104.5"
p49
Max vertical
med 35.0"
33.0"
p26
Standing vert
med 29.5"
27.0"
p17
¾ sprint
med 3.25s
3.42s
p10
Lane agility
med 11.29s
11.91s
p13
Shuttle
med 3.04s
3.08s
p39
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionHeight
6'7.8"72
Wingspan diff
+3.0"17
Hand length
9.00"72
Hand width
10.00"67
Wingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionShooting & agility at the combine
Spot-up 3PT
11/25 · 44%13
Off-dribble 3PT
16/30 · 53%13
On-move 3PT
15/25 · 60%60
Modified agility
3.08s24
via stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · Iowa State Cyclones49 / 100 two-way score
Offense
1.07 PPP36
Defense
0.85 allow70
Shot dieteFG 52%3PT rate 26%FT rate 5%
Jefferson's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs wings · 2010–2025Closest NBA comparisons
Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Jefferson.
“Top X%” = closer to Jefferson than (100−X)% of all drafted wings on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
- 1Johni Broome2025top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · -0.2 career VORP · 11 g
College: Auburn '25 · TS 54.7 · BPM 13.7
Agility11.91svs12.00sWeight246 lbvs249 lbHt6'8"vs6'9"Shuttle3.08svs3.00sStd vert27.0"vs25.0"Wing82.8"vs84.3"Max vert33.0"vs28.0"Reach104.5"vs108.5"¾ sprint3.42svs3.00sAge22.6vs22.9TS%56.0vs54.7USG%28.6vs30.6BPM11.2vs13.7PORPAG4.4vs5.7AST%27.7vs19.5 - 2Chandler Parsons2011top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Starter · 10.2 career VORP · 440 g
College: Florida '11 · TS 55.1 · BPM 8.5
Ht6'8"vs6'9"Reach104.5"vs104.5"Max vert33.0"vs31.5"Std vert27.0"vs25.5"Wing82.8"vs81.5"¾ sprint3.42svs3.29sWeight246 lbvs221 lbAgility11.91svs11.05sAge22.6vs22.7TS%56.0vs55.1PORPAG4.4vs3.4BPM11.2vs8.5AST%27.7vs21.6USG%28.6vs20.1 - 3Kyle Singler2011top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · -0.9 career VORP · 356 g
College: Duke '11 · TS 53.6 · BPM 5.8
Wing82.8"vs82.1"Reach104.5"vs106.0"Max vert33.0"vs30.0"Ht6'8"vs6'8"Weight246 lbvs228 lbStd vert27.0"vs23.0"Agility11.91svs11.22s¾ sprint3.42svs3.21sPORPAG4.4vs4.5Age22.6vs23.1TS%56.0vs53.6USG%28.6vs23.5BPM11.2vs5.8AST%27.7vs8.8 - 4Danny Wolf2025top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production
Became: Too early to grade · -0.2 career VORP · 57 g
College: Michigan '25 · TS 55.9 · BPM 8.7
Weight246 lbvs252 lb¾ sprint3.42svs3.50sMax vert33.0"vs30.0"Std vert27.0"vs24.0"Shuttle3.08svs2.90sHt6'8"vs6'11"Agility11.91svs11.30sWing82.8"vs86.3"Reach104.5"vs109.0"TS%56.0vs55.9BPM11.2vs8.7USG%28.6vs25.2AST%27.7vs22.8PORPAG4.4vs3.0 - 5Paul George2010top 6%
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Star · 9× All-Star · 45.2 career VORP · 945 g
College: Fresno St. '10 · TS 57.2 · BPM 6.7
Wing82.8"vs83.3"Ht6'8"vs6'8"Reach104.5"vs107.0"Weight246 lbvs214 lbTS%56.0vs57.2USG%28.6vs27.3PORPAG4.4vs3.4AST%27.7vs22.6BPM11.2vs6.7Age22.6vs20.1
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
12/12 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
3 Star3 Starter4 Rotation2 Fringe
Median outcome: Rotation — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Paul George2010
Star · 9× All-Star
Floor
Chris Singleton2011
Fringe · -0.8 VORP
The 15 nearest blended comps (3 too recent to grade). These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Jefferson.
College teamIowa St.B12#7 T-Rank29-8SOS tough schedule · top 14%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
Iowa St.· B12
35 games · 73% min
labeled Wing F
Name match to Iowa St., prospect card says Iowa State — possible mid-season transfer or stale label.
Efficiency
- TS%56.0%74
- eFG%51.7%68
- USG%28.6%96
- ORTG115.289
- AdjOE133.398
- RIM%60.7%58
Playmaking
- AST%27.7%99
- TO%16.7%55
Defense
- STL%3.1%91
- BLK%3.4%95
- DRTG87.298
- DBPM+6.699
Rebounding
- ORB%7.2%81
- DRB%21.8%96
Composite
- BPM+11.299
- OBPM+4.696
- PORPAG4.498
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs W-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position35 games· 30.9 mpg
Points
16.496
Rebounds
7.498
Assists
4.899
Steals
1.697
Blocks
0.897
ShootingFG 47.1%3PT 34.5%FT 70.0%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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