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PF/C#13 of 32 bigs in 2026· Projected R2
Izaiyah Nelson
Rim-running big
South Florida·6'8" · 219lb·7'3" wing·9'0" reach·9.3" hand·22.7 yo at draft
Early 2nd
ATH composite
74
NCAA dominance
87
Scoring
81
Playmaking
80
Defense
84
Shooting
77
Combine
Max vertical
38.5"p95
Lane agility
11.22sp81
¾ sprint
3.20sp87
Standing reach
108.0"p49
Draft score 53 out of 100, overall rank 37.
Data completeness
grade A · 100/1007/7 combine drills · D1 stats matched (6/6) · 3 mock boards · birthdate known
measures the data backing this profile — not confidence in the ranking
Skill signature · earned from the data
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionBall HawkSTL 91st · classGlass CleanerORB 91st · class
The read · from the percentiles
auto-derived · 2026 classRim-running big. Carried by rebounding (91st) and rim protection (69th); the question mark is scoring efficiency (28th).
StrengthsRebounding91Rim protection69
WatchScoring efficiency28
Draft outlook
Where the math lands them
Projected landing
#37
Oklahoma City Thunder
2nd roundModel vs the field
The One
#37
Field
#44
In line with the field — our board and the consensus agree within a couple of slots.
across 3 mock boards
Scouting summary
Rim-running big profile. The loudest scout signal: elite bpm (BPM = 97th pct). Their NCAA dominance composite lands at 87 on a 100 scale. Mock consensus pegs them 44th across 3 boards.
Auto-generated from archetype + top deterministic chip · long-form narrative ships when the generator's AI pass is enabled.
Our board over time
Where we've had him since May 30
now#37▼ Faller · down 2
May 30 · #35Jul 27 · #37
How the score is built
deterministic · auditable53.1draft scoreboard #37
Market 62% · consensus 44th / 3 boardsModel 38% · ranked 18th
Our blend weights the mock-consensus board 62% and our deterministic, age-adjusted model 38% — the market had Nelson 44th, our model 18th. The model's own dominance / production / athletic split is in the card above.
Draft score breakdown
How the 53-point composite stacks up
Athletic compositeweight 40%74
NCAA dominanceweight 40%87
Mock consensusweight 20%56
avg rank 44 across 3 boards
Deterministic signals · v1 rules
- +6
Elite BPM
BPM = 97th pct
- +5
Elite vertical
max vertical = 90th pct
- +5
High usage + efficient
USG and TS percentiles both clear the v1 trigger
Skill radar · the shape of his game
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionAvg axis 58th · each vertex is a positional percentile in the 2026 class.
Combine radar · vs. B-bucket
7 of 7 drills measured
Wingspan
med 85.8"
86.5"
p60
Standing reach
med 108.0"
108.0"
p49
Max vertical
med 32.5"
38.5"
p95
Standing vert
med 28.5"
32.5"
p89
¾ sprint
med 3.33s
3.20s
p87
Lane agility
med 11.65s
11.22s
p81
Shuttle
med 3.10s
2.90s
p90
Frame & hands · the tape
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionHeight
6'8.3"30
Wingspan diff
+6.3"61
Hand length
9.25"65
Hand width
9.50"13
Wingspan differential = wingspan − barefoot height (the “ape index”); a positive number means longer than tall. Combine measurements, percentile vs the 2026 class at the position.
Combine drills · controlled setting
percentile vs the 2026 class · at positionShooting & agility at the combine
Spot-up 3PT
9/25 · 36%14
Off-dribble 3PT
16/30 · 53%48
On-move 3PT
12/25 · 48%43
Modified agility
2.90s62
via stats.nba.com draft combine · shooting at the college 3PT distance (makes / attempts)
Two-way profile · how they play
Synergy · per possession · South Florida Bulls44 / 100 two-way score
Offense
1.18 PPP28
Defense
0.90 allow57
Shot dieteFG 57%3PT rate 14%FT rate 6%
Nelson's offensive + defensive efficiency vs the 2026 class, per Synergy possessions.
NBA comps · measurables + production
vs bigs · 2010–2020Closest NBA comparisons
Matched on combine measurements (length, frame, explosion, agility) and college production (BPM, TS%, usage, assists), within position group. Each comp's tag shows which basis drove it; the college production + career outcome shown belongs to the comp, never projected onto Nelson.
“Top X%” = closer to Nelson than (100−X)% of all drafted bigs on the measurables + production; the bar shows relative closeness among these 5.
- 1JaJuan Johnson2011top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Fringe NBA · -0.1 career VORP · 36 g
College: Purdue '11 · TS 56.4 · BPM 7.0
Agility11.22svs11.21sWeight219 lbvs220 lbHt6'8"vs6'9"Max vert38.5"vs38.0"Reach108.0"vs107.5"Wing86.5"vs86.0"Std vert32.5"vs33.5"¾ sprint3.20svs3.14sAge22.7vs22.4AST%8.8vs6.4BPM9.2vs7.0USG%23.7vs27.3TS%60.9vs56.4PORPAG3.9vs5.4 - 2Jalen Smith2020top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Rotation player · 2.4 career VORP · 324 g
College: Maryland '20 · TS 62.6 · BPM 9.7
Ht6'8"vs6'9"Wing86.5"vs86.3"Weight219 lbvs225 lbReach108.0"vs110.0"BPM9.2vs9.7USG%23.7vs22.6TS%60.9vs62.6AST%8.8vs6.1PORPAG3.9vs5.0Age22.7vs20.3 - 3Pascal Siakam2016top 2%
measurables + production · matched on 9 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Star · 4× All-Star · 21.0 career VORP · 691 g
College: New Mexico St. '16 · TS 56.9 · BPM 7.2
Agility11.22svs11.25sReach108.0"vs107.5"Wing86.5"vs87.3"Weight219 lbvs227 lbHt6'8"vs6'8"Max vert38.5"vs36.5"Std vert32.5"vs30.5"Shuttle2.90svs3.09s¾ sprint3.20svs3.41sAge22.7vs22.2AST%8.8vs11.2PORPAG3.9vs4.5BPM9.2vs7.2TS%60.9vs56.9USG%23.7vs28.0 - 4D.J. Wilson2017top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 4 of 9 measurables · 5 of 4 production
Became: Fringe NBA · -0.2 career VORP · 148 g
College: Michigan '17 · TS 62.8 · BPM 8.3
Wing86.5"vs87.0"Ht6'8"vs6'9"Reach108.0"vs109.5"Weight219 lbvs234 lbAST%8.8vs8.5BPM9.2vs8.3TS%60.9vs62.8Age22.7vs21.4USG%23.7vs18.1 - 5Jarvis Varnado2010top 1%
measurables + production · matched on 8 of 9 measurables · 6 of 4 production
Became: Fringe NBA · -0.1 career VORP · 37 g
College: Mississippi St. '10 · TS 59.6 · BPM 9.5
Wing86.5"vs87.5"Weight219 lbvs210 lbHt6'8"vs6'8"Reach108.0"vs109.5"Agility11.22svs11.61sStd vert32.5"vs29.5"¾ sprint3.20svs3.37sMax vert38.5"vs32.5"BPM9.2vs9.5Age22.7vs22.3TS%60.9vs59.6PORPAG3.9vs3.5USG%23.7vs22.1AST%8.8vs6.2
Per-axis gap● near (under ½ SD)● ~1 SD● far (over 1 SD)
Comp outcomes · real careers
15/15 reached the NBAHow the closest comps turned out
1 Star3 Starter4 Rotation7 Fringe
Median outcome: Rotation — the typical case among these comps, between the floor and ceiling.
Ceiling
Pascal Siakam2016
Star · 4× All-Star
Floor
D.J. Wilson2017
Fringe · -0.2 VORP
The 15 nearest blended comps. These are the comps' own careers — a range of what the profile has become before, not a projection of Nelson.
College teamSouth FloridaAmer#50 T-Rank25-9SOS tough schedule · top 28%via BartTorvik
College stats · 2025-26 season
South Florida· Amer
33 games · 67% min
labeled C
Efficiency
- TS%60.9%86
- eFG%56.5%77
- USG%23.7%86
- ORTG126.395
- AdjOE133.997
- RIM%65.8%61
Playmaking
- AST%8.8%76
- TO%11.2%81
Defense
- STL%3.3%97
- BLK%5.9%80
- DRTG94.084
- DBPM+5.094
Rebounding
- ORB%14.4%91
- DRB%21.0%81
Composite
- BPM+9.298
- OBPM+4.396
- PORPAG3.998
via BartTorvik · percentiles vs B-bucket of all D1 history (2008-26)
Per-game production · 2025-26
percentile vs D1 2008-25 · at position33 games· 27.3 mpg
Points
15.998
Rebounds
9.698
Assists
1.290
Steals
1.699
Blocks
1.493
ShootingFG 55.6%3PT 13.0%FT 72.6%
per-game · via barttorvik · percentiles vs all D1 2008-25 at the position
Raw per-game counts — not pace-adjusted; ranked against an 18-season D1 reference where elite-tier percentiles are stable across the window.
X-factor · Risk · Scheme fit
Long-form scouting prose ships when the generator's AI narrative pass is enabled. The deterministic chip list above carries the same information as structured signals.
Generated by deterministic-v3-ageadj-consensus · Jun 25, 2026
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